The earnings report night has arrived, Tesla has already "halved," and the market wants an "explanation" from Musk

On the 23rd, after the US stock market closed, Tesla will announce its first-quarter financial report. Musk needs to provide an explanation, and investors are already preparing for the worst.

Analysts on Wall Street have expressed concerns about Tesla's future. Barclays warned that declining profit margins or a bleak outlook from Tesla's management could bring "a bucket of cold water" to the stock price. Analysts at Wells Fargo stated that they are increasingly seeing signs of weak demand for Tesla vehicles in various regions.

So far this year, Tesla's stock price has fallen by 40%, as investors grapple with numerous concerns, including slowing vehicle sales, the impact of Trump’s auto tariffs, and potential delays in low-cost Tesla models.

The reality facing investors is that Tesla's market value has been halved, and the complex political and business dilemmas have made the outlook for shareholders even more uncertain.

Sales Slowdown: The Cold Reality Hits

Tesla's delivery data has sounded the alarm. Earlier this month, Tesla announced that its first-quarter vehicle delivery was far below expectations. The company stated that it delivered 336,681 vehicles this quarter, significantly lower than the nearly 380,000 expected, representing a year-on-year decline of 13%.

Barclays warned that declining profit margins or a bleak outlook from Tesla's management could bring "a bucket of cold water" to the stock price. Barclays expects Tesla's earnings per share in 2025 to be $2.24, lower than the widely expected $2.65, and far below the consensus expectation of over $3.20 at the beginning of the year.

Analysts at Wells Fargo stated that they are increasingly seeing signs of weak demand for Tesla vehicles in various regions. Wells Fargo believes that based on the annualized delivery volume for the first quarter, Tesla's vehicle deliveries in 2025 will only be 1.35 million, which is 27% lower than the widely expected figure. The bank expects Tesla to deliver 1.66 million vehicles this year, a year-on-year decline of 7%.

The Double-Edged Sword of "First Friend": Tesla Trapped by Trump Tariffs

Like many American manufacturers, Tesla is mired in the quagmire of Trump tariffs. According to CCTV News, on March 26 local time, President Trump signed an executive order at the White House announcing a 25% tariff on all imported vehicles.

However, unlike other companies, Tesla faces an additional dilemma—Musk is referred to as the "First Friend" due to his close relationship with the president. Musk became Trump's largest financial donor last year and has been one of his closest advisors since taking office However, at this moment, the CEO finds himself in a dilemma: If he continues to maintain a close relationship with Trump, the company may alienate potential customers both domestically and internationally who oppose Trump's policies. On the other hand, overly criticizing tariffs could damage his "brotherhood" with Trump and provoke dissatisfaction from the White House.

This is a lose-lose situation, and it is a trap that Musk has woven himself. Investors are eager to know how this will affect Tesla and Musk's perspective on it.

"DOGE" and Tesla: When will the CEO return to his main duties?

Investors are increasingly worried about Musk's close relationship with the Trump administration, which could harm Tesla's brand image and lead to a decline in sales. Some have begun to initiate boycott actions and vandalize Tesla's facilities.

Therefore, one of the most pressing questions for investors is:

“Has the order inflow for Tesla in the first quarter shown any significant changes due to rumors of ‘brand damage’?”

Wedbush analyst Dan Ives believes that Elon Musk is facing a "red alert" situation and needs to distance himself from the government's DOGE committee:

“Musk needs to step away from the government, take a backseat on the DOGE issue, and fully commit to his role as Tesla CEO.”

Ives believes that due to the brand damage caused by Musk's involvement with DOGE, future Tesla buyers may permanently decrease by 15%-20%.

The "Commitment" to Autonomous Driving and Humanoid Robot Plans

In addition to financial performance and political risks, investors are closely monitoring Tesla's progress in autonomous vehicles, Robotaxi fleets, cheaper new models, and humanoid robots.

Musk has ambitiously promised that these projects will make Tesla the most valuable company in the world. He announced plans to launch a driverless taxi service in Austin, Texas, in June, but there has been no further news to date.

Meanwhile, Uber and Google's Waymo have already launched a cooperative driverless taxi service in the area.

Ives believes that if Musk delays the Robotaxi plan, it will have a "huge negative impact" on the stock price:

“We need to hear good news because there won't be any good news regarding earnings or the financial situation for the remainder of this year.”