Société Générale Wealth Management: Hong Kong stocks lack a clear direction, expecting the Hang Seng Index to fluctuate in the range of 20,000 to 22,000 points
Francois Baroin, Chief Investment Strategist at Societe Generale in Hong Kong, stated that the Hong Kong stock market lacks a clear direction, and it is expected that the Hang Seng Index will fluctuate between 20,000 and 22,000 points. Although the deadlock in Sino-U.S. trade negotiations remains unresolved, investors have digested the worst-case scenario and are shifting to a wait-and-see approach. She advises investors to maintain a barbell strategy, focusing on Chinese telecom and technology stocks while avoiding excessive concentration in U.S. stocks, especially technology stocks
According to Zhitong Finance APP, Hong Kong stocks rebounded last week, reversing a five-week decline. Tan Huimin, Chief Investment Strategist at BNP Paribas Wealth Management Hong Kong, believes that the deadlock in China-U.S. trade negotiations has not eased, and the market is beginning to worry about risks beyond tariffs. However, investors have largely digested the worst-case scenario and are now adopting a wait-and-see approach, lacking clear direction. It is expected that the Hang Seng Index will fluctuate between 20,000 and 22,000 points.
Tan Huimin admitted that the mainland announced its policy direction in March, and unless the impact of U.S. tariffs is unexpected, prompting China to suddenly introduce more stimulus measures, the anticipated stimulus policies will gradually be implemented in the second half of the year.
She pointed out that the low point of 19,260 for the Hang Seng Index at the beginning of this month is expected to be a short-term bottom. If it falls back to that level, it is anticipated that northbound capital will actively enter the market. If expectations exceed 22,000 points, there will be funds taking profits at high levels, and the market is estimated to fluctuate between 20,000 and 22,000 points.
In terms of stock selection strategy, Tan Huimin does not recommend that investors hold cash due to market volatility. Instead, they should continue to maintain a Barbell Strategy, which can absorb Chinese telecom stocks and domestic bank stocks for dividends, while also allocating to technology stocks, which are expected to see ideal profit growth with the popularization of artificial intelligence (AI).
At the same time, the U.S. dollar index has recently continued to weaken. Tan Huimin stated that the tariff war affects the U.S. dollar's performance, as the market loses confidence in U.S. dollar assets. It is expected that there will be a reduction in U.S. stocks and U.S. Treasury bonds, followed by reallocation and diversification of investment portfolios. Therefore, she advises investors not to concentrate too much on U.S. stocks, especially U.S. technology stocks
