Amazon's decline is fierce as analysts initiate a "bull-bear battle" ahead of the earnings report
Amazon's stock price has fallen 30% from its February peak, and analysts have differing views on its earnings report outlook. Raymond James downgraded its rating to "Outperform," lowering the target price from $275 to $195, citing macroeconomic and tariff risks. Bank of America believes Amazon is undervalued, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 23 times, lower than Walmart's 32 times. Morgan Stanley maintains an "Overweight" rating but warns of increasing macro uncertainty
According to Zhitong Finance APP, on Monday, influenced by the overall weakness of the market, Amazon (AMZN.US) shares fell by as much as 4%. Currently, the stock price of this e-commerce giant has accumulated a 30% decline from the 52-week high set in February. With only ten days left until Amazon releases its first-quarter financial report, Wall Street's latest assessments show a polarized situation.
Raymond James downgraded the rating of this e-commerce and cloud computing giant from "Strong Buy" to "Outperform." The firm believes that the market has underestimated the EBIT pressure Amazon will face in 2025-2026. Analyst Josh Beck pointed out that uncertainties related to macroeconomic and tariff risks, along with increasing investment intensity, pose challenges for the company.
Beck warned, "Regardless of whether the tariff issues persist, given the risk exposure from the Chinese market (which contributes about 30% of total merchandise transaction volume and 15% of advertising revenue) and delivery services in rural areas of the United States (accounting for 11% of logistics costs), further diversifying the supply chain and logistics layout may drag down performance." Meanwhile, Raymond James lowered Amazon's target stock price from $275 to $195.
Bank of America believes that Amazon is undervalued compared to Walmart (WMT.US). Based on the expected price-to-earnings ratio under Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP) for 2026, Amazon stands at 23 times, while Walmart is as high as 32 times. Although macroeconomic pressures have prompted some investors to turn to this retail giant from Arkansas, analyst Justin Post firmly believes that, in addition to the advantage of a lower price-to-earnings ratio, Amazon's long-term development potential in artificial intelligence and the profit margin outlook for its retail business remain solid. He also reminded investors that, due to its scale advantage, the tariff turmoil may actually help Amazon capture more market share in retail.
Morgan Stanley still lists Amazon as a "preferred stock," maintaining an "Overweight" rating, but simultaneously warns that the macroeconomic uncertainties surrounding the company are increasing and the situation is becoming more complex. Based on the difficulty of obtaining clear performance expectations in the short term, the firm recently lowered its earnings per share forecast for Amazon in 2026 to $7 and set a target stock price of $245.
On the Seeking Alpha platform, analysts' opinions are also divided. In the past week, Oakoff Investments and Income Generators published articles supporting Amazon's bullish outlook; Paul Frank gave a "Sell" rating; Nexus Research maintained a neutral stance with a "Hold" rating.
Amazon is scheduled to release its financial report on May 1. Analysts generally expect its revenue to reach $155.1 billion, with earnings per share of $1.36. Options trading data indicates that after the financial report is released, Amazon's stock price may have a volatility range of 9%
