U.S. Stock Outlook | The U.S. Dollar Index briefly fell below 98, gold surpassed 3,400 USD for the first time

1. As of April 21 (Monday) before the US stock market opened, the futures of the three major US stock indices fell together. As of the time of writing, Dow futures were down 1.10%, S&P 500 futures were down 1.31%, and Nasdaq futures were down 1.74%.

1. As of the time of writing, the German DAX index was down 0.49%, the UK FTSE 100 index was slightly up, the French CAC 40 index was down 0.60%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 index was down 0.63%.

1. As of the time of writing, WTI crude oil was down 2.45%, priced at $62.44 per barrel. Brent crude oil was down 2.30%, priced at $66.40 per barrel.

Market News

Trade war boosts demand for safe-haven assets, spot gold breaks through $3,400 per ounce, and the dollar index briefly falls below 98. The US-led trade war has supported demand for safe-haven assets, pushing gold prices to record levels. Data to be released in the coming days may highlight early signs of damage to the global economy. As of the time of writing, spot gold has broken through the $3,400 per ounce mark. The market expects the International Monetary Fund to lower its economic growth forecast on Tuesday, while the Purchasing Managers' Index to be released the next day will provide a rough picture of economic activity since President Donald Trump imposed tariffs. The trade conflict has disrupted global markets, dampening interest in risk assets while boosting demand for safe-haven assets, leading to record highs in gold prices this year. Over the past 12 weeks, the holdings of gold-backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have continued to expand, marking the longest duration since 2022. Additionally, the dollar index fell below 98 on Monday, the first time since March 2022.

This week's US stock market trends still need to watch the tariff "face," with Google (GOOGL.US) and Tesla (TSLA.US) earnings reports coming up. The erratic tariff policies of the Trump administration have put pressure on the stock market. Last week, the Dow fell 2.66%, the Nasdaq fell 2.62%, and the S&P 500 index fell 1.5%. In the coming week, Trump's policies will remain the focus of the market, while several S&P 500 constituent companies will announce their quarterly earnings. Earnings reports from Google (GOOGL.US), Tesla (TSLA.US), Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG.US), Boeing (BA.US), and Verizon (VZ.US) will lead the market this week, with over 120 S&P 500 constituent companies expected to release quarterly earnings. This week, US economic data is expected to be relatively calm, mainly focusing on manufacturing and service sector activity as well as consumer confidence data Tariffs Trigger Discontent Among Americans, Trump's Approval Rating on Economic Issues Hits New Low. A survey of 1,000 people across the United States shows that President Donald Trump’s net approval rating on handling economic issues has turned negative for the first time. 53% of respondents disapprove of Trump's handling of the economy, while 43% approve. Overall, 44% of respondents approve of Trump's performance as president, while 51% disapprove, which is slightly better than at the end of Trump's first term. Trump's Republican base continues to support him firmly. Blue-collar workers still have a positive view of Trump's economic handling, but their disapproval rate has risen by 14 percentage points compared to the average during Trump's first term. Blue-collar workers were key to Trump's victory.

Trump Continues to Pressure Powell! Chicago Fed President Warns: Do Not Limit the Independence of the Federal Reserve. Following President Trump's continued pressure on Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee warned last Sunday against Trump's attempts to limit the Fed's independence. He stated on a program, "Economists almost unanimously agree that monetary independence should not be subject to political interference, meaning that the Federal Reserve or any central bank can do what it needs to do, which is really important." Goolsbee expressed, "I strongly hope we do not fall into an environment where monetary independence is questioned. This would damage the credibility of the Federal Reserve." He added that in countries where the central bank lacks monetary independence, "the fact is that inflation rates are higher, economic growth is slower, and the job market is worse."

Trump Allies "Turncoat" to Support Powell: No President Has the Right to Dismiss the Fed Chairman. Recently, President Trump has intensified his criticism of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. Last Thursday, Trump publicly expressed his dissatisfaction with Powell. On Friday, National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett emphasized that they would "study" whether the president has the authority to remove the Fed chairman. Later that day, Trump accused Powell of refusing to cut interest rates. However, on Sunday, Louisiana Republican Senator John Kennedy stated in an interview that he believes Powell will not resign because of this. "I believe the president, any president, has no right to dismiss the Fed chairman," Kennedy said, "The Federal Reserve should maintain its independence." Kennedy continued, suggesting that Trump and Powell "should sit down and have a cup of hot cocoa to communicate well."

Individual Stock News

Tesla (TSLA.US) Major Bull Alerts Again: Musk Needs to Leave DOGE. Wedbush Securities analyst Dan Ives has once again sounded the alarm for Tesla, warning that as the electric vehicle manufacturer prepares to announce its first-quarter results on Tuesday, CEO Elon Musk is also facing challenges. Ives stated in a report on Sunday, "Musk needs to leave the Trump administration, significantly reduce his involvement with the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), and return to being the full-time CEO of Tesla. Tesla is Musk, and Musk is Tesla... Anyone who thinks the damage Musk brings to the brand is not real... should go talk to car buyers in the U.S., Europe, and Asia... After these discussions, you will have a different perspective." Under the impact of tariff policy uncertainty, Volvo (VLVLY.US) plans to lay off 800 workers at its U.S. factories. Due to uncertainty about how U.S. President Trump's tariff policy will affect demand, Volvo plans to lay off up to 800 workers across its three factories in the U.S. in the coming months. Trump's tariff policy has severely disrupted the automotive industry, which now faces the daunting challenges of rising costs and supply chain turmoil. Reports indicate that Volvo has notified employees that it will lay off 550-800 workers at its Mack Trucks factory in McKeesport, Pennsylvania, and at two Volvo factories in Dublin, Virginia, and Hagerstown, Maryland. A spokesperson quoted by the media stated that Volvo needs to adjust production to align with the reduced market demand for its vehicles. According to Volvo's website, the company has nearly 20,000 employees in North America.

Tesla (TSLA.US) "Made in America" delayed? Low-cost Model Y production may be pushed from this year to next year. Tesla's highly anticipated affordable model plan has hit a snag, with the production of the low-cost Model Y in the U.S. being delayed by several months. Media reported on Friday that Tesla had originally promised to launch a more affordable electric vehicle in the first half of this year, but the production schedule in the U.S. has now been postponed. The production of the low-cost Model Y (internal code E41) is expected to be delayed until the third quarter to early next year, significantly later than Tesla's publicly promised timeline. Currently, the price of the Model Y Long Range All-Wheel Drive version in the U.S. market is about $49,000 (not including the $7,500 tax credit). Previous reports indicated that the upcoming E41 will be smaller than the current Model Y, with production costs expected to decrease by 20%.

AstraZeneca (AZN.US) breast cancer class 1 innovative drug approved in China. On April 18, the latest announcement from the National Medical Products Administration (NMPA) of China approved AstraZeneca's class 1 innovative drug capivasertib for market launch. This product was approved by the U.S. FDA in November 2023 (brand name: Truqap) for the treatment of adult patients with hormone receptor (HR)-positive, human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2)-negative advanced or metastatic breast cancer.

Important Economic Data and Event Forecasts

Beijing time 20:30: 2025 FOMC voting member and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee will be interviewed by CNBC.

Beijing time 22:00: U.S. Conference Board Leading Economic Index month-on-month for March.

TBD: 2025 World Bank and IMF Spring Meetings.

Earnings Forecast

Tuesday pre-market: GE Aerospace (GE.US), Verizon (VZ.US)

Tuesday post-market: Tesla (TSLA.US), SAP (SAP.US)