Even the Russian government is not optimistic about oil prices! It has cut its 2025 Brent crude oil forecast by 17%
The Russian Ministry of Economic Development has lowered its 2025 Brent crude oil price forecast by 17%, with the target price reduced to $68 per barrel, down from the previous $81.7 per barrel. The department maintains its GDP growth forecast at 2.5%, but has raised its inflation expectation to 7.6%. At the same time, international oil prices have fallen sharply due to concerns over slowing global economic growth, with WTI crude oil futures dropping to $63.2 per barrel and Brent crude oil futures falling to $66.40 per barrel
According to reports from Russian media on Monday local time, the Russian economic department has downgraded its benchmark scenario for the 2025 economic forecast, reducing the average annual price forecast for international crude oil, specifically Brent crude, by about 17% from the expectations set in September last year. For many years, this government department has maintained a bullish outlook on international oil prices, now predicting the average price of Brent crude in 2025 to be $68 per barrel, significantly lower than the previous forecast of $81.7 per barrel. Before the Russian economic department lowered its oil price forecast, major Wall Street firms such as Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley had already revised down their international oil price expectations multiple times this year.
Additionally, the latest forecast price for Urals crude, the main type of crude oil exported by Russia, is set at $56 per barrel, while the Russian economic department had previously based its 2025 fiscal budget on a price assumption of $69.7 per barrel.
"We believe this is a rather conservative estimate," a representative from the economic department stated. In early April this year, the price of Urals crude fell sharply to its lowest level since 2023—around $53 per barrel—and remained below the important threshold of $60 last week.
Meanwhile, the economic department has maintained its GDP growth forecast for Russia in 2025 at 2.5%, but has significantly raised its inflation expectation from 4.5% to 7.6%.
As of the time of publication, the North American crude oil pricing benchmark—WTI crude futures—has dropped over 2% to $63.2 per barrel, while Brent crude futures have also fallen over 2% to around $66.40 per barrel.
Due to ongoing concerns among commodity market traders that the U.S.-led trade war may slow global economic growth and suppress energy demand, oil prices have seen a significant decline since April. Compounding the issue, it is expected that oil production from the OPEC+ organization, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, will increase by 411,000 barrels per day in May, although some of this increase may be offset by countries that are over-reducing production. Additionally, the Iranian foreign minister stated that representatives from Iran and the U.S. agreed on Saturday to begin framing a potential nuclear agreement. A U.S. official also mentioned that the talks have made "very good progress." The active negotiations between the U.S. and Iran are expected to facilitate more Iranian oil entering the global supply and demand market.
Last week, Wall Street financial giant Goldman Sachs once again lowered its expectations for international oil prices, primarily based on the ongoing "oversupply" expectations in the crude oil market this year and the anticipated weaker global oil demand growth under the "tariff storm" led by the Trump administration.
The bank currently predicts that the average price of Brent crude for the remainder of 2025 will be $63 per barrel, while the average price of WTI crude is expected to be $59 per barrel; Goldman Sachs has further lowered its oil price forecast for 2026, significantly reducing the average price of Brent crude to $58 per barrel, and the average price of WTI crude to just $55 per barrel.
Since Trump initiated a new round of global trade wars, international oil prices have experienced a sharp decline for most of the past week, with the North American crude oil price benchmark—WTI crude—falling below the critical breakeven point of $65 per barrel, which is the breakeven point for many U.S. shale oil companies developing new wells. This has caused deep unease among U.S. oil and gas drillers and even sparked resentment among some oil and gas producers who had strongly supported Trump The latest oil prices and demand expectations have been significantly downgraded, reflecting Goldman Sachs' belief that global crude oil demand will face a historic downturn under the heavy pressure of Trump's tariffs. Goldman Sachs has greatly increased its expectations for oversupply in the crude oil market—projecting an oversupply of up to 800,000 barrels per day (mb/d) in 2025, and an oversupply of up to 1.4 million barrels per day in 2026. The firm also stated that these oversupply pressures will continue to exert strong pressure on Brent crude and WTI prices