Rumors of the "US-Japan Agreement" are rampant, and the US market "falls without an agreement"?

Before the three-day Easter holiday in the United States, the market had already priced in multiple trade agreement expectations, but the actual progress was almost zero, which may trigger a new round of volatility.

On April 21, market analysis agency Kobeissi Letter posted on social media highlighting the current awkward situation facing the market: The three-day Easter long weekend has ended, but the trade agreements priced in by the market last week have not been announced, and there are only 79 days left in the "reciprocal tariff" suspension period:

Kobeissi Letter stated in another post that the S&P 500 index has rebounded nearly 10% from its recent low, indicating that the market has already priced in the possibility of a tariff decrease. This has created a "no news is bad news" market environment. Since last Thursday, there has been no substantial trade progress, and we are already on the 11th day of the 90-day reciprocal tariff suspension period, with the earnings season also in full swing. All signs point to increased market volatility this week:

Is the "U.S.-Japan Agreement" About to Be Reached?

As the market eagerly awaits an agreement to boost morale, Fox News senior reporter Charles Gasparino leaked an exclusive news on social media that U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is about to announce a significant trade agreement likely reached with Japan.

Gasparino emphasized that this information has not been independently confirmed by the White House and reminded that "the situation is always fluid; an agreement that seems to be reached may fall through. Timing is also always uncertain. Nevertheless, the message from the White House is that they are close to a significant agreement."

According to Xinhua News Agency, Japan's Minister of Economic Revitalization, Yasutoshi Nishimura, who is responsible for negotiating tariffs with the U.S., visited the U.S. last week and held the first round of trade talks with the U.S. since April 2.

Subsequently, U.S. President Trump and Treasury Secretary Yellen both spoke out, with Trump stating that the negotiations "have made significant progress," but did not mention the details of the negotiations. Treasury Secretary Yellen stated that the negotiations with Japan are progressing in a very satisfactory direction.

Gasparino's leak has sparked heated discussions, with some skepticism expressed by netizens, saying: "It's that time of the weekend again to listen to Gasparino's nonsense and pump up the market." Gasparino personally engaged in a verbal spat, retorting, "Maybe you'll understand me when you learn to read."

In the Coming Weeks, Trade Agreements Will Have a Decisive Impact on the Market

The market is currently at a critical turning point, and the nature and enforcement of future trade agreements will determine the market direction.

Peter Tchir of Academy Securities points out that in the coming days and weeks, the market is likely to fluctuate due to "agreements" rather than any other factors.

Tchir believes the market may see one of the following two scenarios:

Face-saving agreement (70% probability): Both sides reduce tariffs and commit to purchasing U.S. goods (mainly focused on defense and agriculture), but lack a practical enforcement mechanism.

Substantive trade balance agreement (30% probability): Includes hard indicators for purchasing U.S. goods and penalties for non-compliance, as well as trade restrictions with other countries.

He presents a fundamental judgment, that the U.S. may have embarked on the path of a "real trade balance agreement," which is also why we hear little from other countries. They may be confused or even shocked by U.S. demands and are not in a hurry to sign such agreements.

Tchir warns that if there is no agreement in the coming weeks, or worse, if leaks indicate that countries are far apart in their positions, then the negotiation strategy may shift towards a "face-saving agreement."

Tchir emphasizes that even if an agreement is ultimately reached, the long-term impact remains pessimistic. Economic, geopolitical, and domestic news flows will continue to highlight divisions, which does not help heal the wounds that have already been inflicted.

Risk Warning and Disclaimer

The market has risks, and investment should be cautious. This article does not constitute personal investment advice and does not take into account the specific investment goals, financial situation, or needs of individual users. Users should consider whether any opinions, views, or conclusions in this article align with their specific circumstances. Investment based on this is at their own risk