Next Wednesday, the first wave of "data reflecting tariff impacts" from Europe and the United States will be released

Under the shadow of tariffs, the April PMI may reveal the first "scar" of the global economy.

After Trump announced the initiation of global tariff measures on April 2, the market briefly calmed, but the real "backlash" may manifest next Wednesday.

On that day, the United States, Eurozone, and the United Kingdom will simultaneously release the preliminary values of the April manufacturing and services PMIs, which are seen as the first window to observe the extent of damage to business and consumer confidence. The U.S. manufacturing input price index is particularly noteworthy, as it may reveal the cost transmission after the tariffs take effect. In terms of Eurozone PMI, closely monitor whether new export orders begin to weaken.

At the same time, the Federal Reserve will also release the Beige Book on economic conditions next Wednesday, revealing the actual impact of uncertainty and tariff policies on regional economies.

PMI and Beige Book: The first forward-looking data reflecting tariff impacts

As tariffs take effect, market focus has shifted from short-term fluctuations to fundamental verification: Are businesses beginning to cut back on investment? Is consumer confidence weakening? All of this will begin to show in the PMI data.

In particular, the input price index in the U.S. manufacturing PMI is referred to by S&P Global as the "first stop" for measuring tariff inflation pressure. In March, this index rose to its fastest level in nearly two years, reflecting increased cost pressures on businesses. Analysts expect that with the 10% import tariffs already in effect and reciprocal tariffs still pending, the April data may rise further.

Although the market generally expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates three times this year, some institutions are cautious about this due to inflation concerns brought about by tariffs.

Analysts at Danske Bank noted: "This PMI report is crucial. In the current environment of heightened growth concerns, trade uncertainty may have suppressed new orders."

In addition to the PMI, the Federal Reserve will also release the Beige Book on economic conditions next Wednesday. This report will provide detailed survey materials on regional economies, helping outsiders understand the extent to which government policies and uncertainty have influenced business decisions.

Moreover, the U.S. will gradually release a series of economic data, with new home sales for March on Wednesday and existing home sales, durable goods orders, and initial jobless claims on Thursday, which will help to more comprehensively assess the actual impact of trade shocks.

In the Eurozone, the preliminary PMIs for France, Germany, and the entire Eurozone will also be released next Wednesday. RBC pointed out that this will be "the first major test to assess the potential impact of Trump's tariff announcement on European growth," particularly closely monitoring whether new export orders begin to weaken.

Although the reciprocal tariffs between the U.S. and Europe have been temporarily postponed, key products such as steel and automobiles still face high tariffs of 25%, and trade tensions remain unresolved, which may have eroded business confidence.

The PMI data from the UK is also worth noting. RBC stated: "The impact of U.S. tariffs on sentiment earlier this month cannot be ignored, but considering that UK service exports to the U.S. are still tariff-free, the direct impact may be relatively limited."