In the coming weeks, these U.S. economic data will be crucial for the market
In the coming weeks, U.S. economic data will have a significant impact on the market. Recently, there has been a divergence between "hard and soft economic data," with strong hard data leading institutions like the Federal Reserve to have uncertain views on the impact of tariffs, while the weakening of soft data suggests that the effects of tariffs may soon become apparent. Bank of America’s Hartnett pointed out that evidence of a shift from hard data to soft data in the coming weeks includes changes in U.S. retail sales and fluctuations in unemployment claims, particularly the ISM manufacturing report on May 1 will be crucial
Recently, the significant divergence between "hard and soft economic data" in the United States has sparked heated discussions in the market. The strengthening of "hard data" has led institutions, including the Federal Reserve, to believe that the impact of tariffs on the economy is still uncertain; meanwhile, the substantial weakening of "soft data," characterized by expectation surveys, has led supporters to believe that the impact of tariffs on the economy will soon become evident.
Which should we trust, "hard or soft data"?
Bank of America’s Hartnett believes that the best evidence of a transition from "hard" data to "soft" data in the coming weeks will be:
i) A reversal of the increase in U.S. retail sales from March;
ii) A break in the range of 200,000 to 250,000 for initial jobless claims over the past three years;
The most telling indicator will be the ISM manufacturing report on May 1st. If this report shows that the inventory index rises from 53.4 to above 55, and the new orders index falls from 45.2 to below 40, it would indicate that the new orders/inventory ratio (an important leading indicator) has dropped to recession levels.
