The moment of "uncertainty" has passed, is the US stock market facing an "earnings massacre"?
Goldman Sachs hedge fund chief Tony Pasquariello stated that the U.S. market has passed the peak uncertainty phase, but the slowdown in economic growth, as well as the magnitude and duration of the recession, have become key issues. Investors in the consumer goods sector generally believe that the industry's "E" value is too high and are confused about the performance of the market's "P" value amid rapidly declining valuations. The subdued market sentiment may indicate that positions have been adjusted, reflecting the condition of the broader U.S. stock market
Goldman Sachs hedge fund manager Tony Pasquariello believes that the U.S. market has clearly passed the stage of maximum uncertainty caused by tariffs, but it cannot be denied that U.S. economic growth is slowing down. The biggest judgment that stock operators need to make is about the recession, and the current question is its magnitude and duration. In this context, the biggest unknown is whether large-scale layoffs are imminent.
I have covered the consumer goods industry for 18 years. The communication feedback from the past three trading days may be the most pessimistic I can remember.
Consumer goods investors generally believe that the "E" values in almost all industries are too high, and they feel uncertain/confused about how the market's "P" values can remain so strong in the face of such rapid valuation declines.
I don't know how to handle this issue. On one hand, this concern seems reasonable, and it could be argued that both "E" and "P" values are too high; on the other hand, when market sentiment is so low, it usually indicates that positions have already been adjusted.
If you want to say that this is also an analogy to the broader U.S. stock market, then indeed it is