Trump's obvious impatience with Powell is not good for the market

In the past day, Trump has publicly criticized Powell three times, calling for an immediate interest rate cut, even stating harshly that "Powell should have been fired long ago." It seems that Trump is truly impatient!

Luke Gromen, founder and chief investment officer of Forest for the Trees, sharply pointed out on X: “If trade negotiations were really going very well, Trump wouldn’t be attacking Powell.”

Nomura Securities noted in its latest report that Trump is showing "obvious impatience," which may increase the risk of policy missteps before the 90-day tariff suspension period ends.

According to Brokerage China, Trump stated on Thursday that the tit-for-tat tariff hikes between the U.S. and China may soon come to an end, and he is "100% confident" that a trade agreement with the EU will be reached before the end of the tariff suspension period. In response, Nomura analyst Naka Matsuzawa wrote in the report that this reflects Trump’s eagerness to reach an "agreement" during the tariff grace period and to use the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts to help the economy and financial markets return to a growth trajectory.

However, Nomura warned that this impatience could actually have negative effects on the economy and financial markets. The report stated:

Trump currently has almost no effective cards to play to accelerate negotiations. He has announced extreme tariff proposals, but the U.S. market and businesses are reacting more negatively than those in other countries, forcing him to partially change direction.

What is the direction of the negotiations?

The report specifically pointed out that Trump's impatience may lead targeted countries to adopt delay strategies.

The wisest approach may be to wait until the 90-day suspension period is about to end and the U.S. is close to making concessions before taking action.

Nomura believes that Japan is a relatively easy negotiation partner and is optimistic about reaching an agreement quickly. Specifically, Japan may agree to some conditions, such as increasing government spending and extending the holding period of U.S. Treasury bonds, but on other aspects, such as promoting the appreciation of the yen, Japan may not accept.

The report predicts that the Japanese stock market will remain stable, especially in the ultra-long-term bond market. The friendly atmosphere of U.S.-Japan trade negotiations is positively reflected in the Japanese stock market, and foreign investors may re-enter the market.

U.S. Treasuries may continue to fluctuate sharply

Nomura believes that Trump's public criticism of the Federal Reserve may affect the pace of interest rate cuts, thereby raising expectations for future inflation, which could lead to instability in the U.S. Treasury market again. According to market data, the Philadelphia Fed's survey shows that although the overall economic activity index for the next six months has slightly rebounded, plans for capital expenditures by businesses have significantly decreased, which is consistent with the results of the Empire State survey.

Nomura Securities analysis states that businesses have delayed capital expenditures due to concerns over tariff issues. These uncertainties are affecting decision-making in the real economy and may further increase market volatility