"Weight Loss Miracle Drug" Enters Oral Era, Eli Lilly Tops "Weight Loss Drug King"?

Eli Lilly's oral weight loss drug Orforglipron has performed excellently in Phase 3 clinical trials, comparable to or even surpassing injectable GLP-1 drugs.

The market reacted strongly to Eli Lilly's breakthrough progress. On April 17, Eli Lilly's stock price rose over 14%, surging 16% during the day, marking the largest single-day increase since August 2023.

Meanwhile, Novo Nordisk, which has long dominated the GLP-1 market, saw its stock price drop nearly 8%.

According to a press release from Eli Lilly, its oral GLP-1 drug Orforglipron "demonstrated statistically significant efficacy results in Phase 3 clinical trials, with safety consistent with injectable GLP-1 drugs."

Data shows that participants taking Orforglipron lost an average of 16 pounds after 40 weeks, approximately 7.9% of their body weight, exceeding Eli Lilly's previous expected weight loss range of 4% to 7%.

In contrast, Novo Nordisk's star product Ozempic only resulted in about a 6% weight loss in diabetic patients at the highest dosage.

"These data represent the best-case scenario for a product that could become a blockbuster upon launch," said Jefferies analyst Akash Tewari.

Mizuho Securities healthcare expert Jared Holz stated that Eli Lilly will maintain a superior position in this category for a considerable time, as its advantage over competitors in the pharmaceutical and biotechnology fields is expanding based on these data.

Wall Street analysts generally believe that the GLP-1 weight loss drug field is shifting from injectable forms to convenient oral forms, and Eli Lilly has already gained an early lead. This intense multi-year competition has clearly identified a winner, and at least for now, Eli Lilly has been crowned the new king in the GLP-1 drug field by the market.

Eli Lilly's Chairman and CEO David Ricks stated in a statement:

"As a convenient once-daily oral pill, Orforglipron may provide a new option that, if approved, can be rapidly mass-produced and launched for global use."

Oral Medications: A Dual Victory of Convenience and Manufacturing Advantages

Orforglipron is a more convenient oral alternative to GLP-1 injections, giving Eli Lilly a potential advantage over competitors like Novo Nordisk.

Eli Lilly's Orforglipron is not only competitive in efficacy but also offers significant convenience advantages due to its oral administration method.

Reports indicate that while GLP-1 drugs like Wegovy have achieved great success in the market, these drugs must be administered via weekly injections, limiting their usage

If Orforglipron can provide similar effects in a simple oral form, it has the potential to reach more patients and become a significant market disruptor.

In addition to convenience, Eli Lilly is also actively preparing for large-scale production of Orforglipron. The company recently disclosed inventory valued at nearly $550 million, "primarily related to Orforglipron." This indicates that Eli Lilly is building product inventory to avoid the supply shortage issues faced by Novo Nordisk and its own injectable GLP-1 drugs.

Leerink Partners analyst David Risinger stated: Eli Lilly will be the only company with an easily produced oral GLP-1 drug, leading new competitors by nearly three years. This advantage will allow Eli Lilly to maintain higher pricing power for a longer period.

The King of Weight Loss Drugs?

According to Wall Street News previously mentioned, in the same week that Eli Lilly announced this exciting news, its competitor Pfizer announced it would stop developing its oral weight loss drug Danuglipron due to a potential drug-related liver injury in a patient during clinical trials. Reports indicate that Pfizer's exit further solidifies Eli Lilly's leading position in this field.

Meanwhile, Novo Nordisk has faced a series of negative developments since June of last year, including lower-than-expected demand for weight loss drugs Wegovy and Ozempic, disappointing mid-term trial results for the oral weight loss drug monlunabant, and poor data performance for another injectable drug in development, CagriSema, leading to its loss of the top position in the European stock market this month.

The GLP-1 weight loss drug market is expected to rapidly grow from the current $28 billion to approximately $95 billion by 2030. According to Goldman Sachs analysts' forecasts, the risk-adjusted peak sales of Orforglipron (including obesity and diabetes) will reach $23.5 billion by 2035, far exceeding the market consensus of $16.8 billion.

To avoid similar supply shortage issues as injectable GLP-1 drugs, Eli Lilly has begun actively stocking Orforglipron, with the recently disclosed inventory valued at nearly $550 million "primarily related to Orforglipron." Reports indicate that the company plans to achieve full localization of Orforglipron supply in the U.S. within five years.

According to clinical trial databases, Eli Lilly's main obesity trial is expected to complete as early as July. The company plans to seek regulatory approval for weight loss indications later this year and will apply for diabetes indications in early next year. If all goes well, analysts expect the drug could receive FDA approval for market launch as early as the first half of 2026