Trump's choice for the "next Federal Reserve Chairman"? Waller - Estee Lauder "son-in-law," believes "the impact of tariffs on inflation is transitory."

As Trump's dissatisfaction with Powell intensifies, former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh has once again become the focus of public opinion as his preferred candidate for the next Federal Reserve Chair.

On Thursday, media reports stated that Trump has been privately discussing the possibility of dismissing Powell before the end of his term in recent months, considering Warsh as his replacement. It is reported that Warsh himself persuaded Trump not to remove Powell, advocating for him to complete his term.

Trump's dissatisfaction with Powell has become public. On Thursday alone, Trump criticized Powell three times, calling him "always too late and wrong," accusing him of "playing politics," "too bad," and again pressured for interest rate cuts, believing that Powell "should have lowered rates like the European Central Bank a long time ago," and called for Powell to "leave as soon as possible."

Warsh, who is favored by Trump, is not new to the public eye; he was considered for nomination before Trump appointed Powell in 2017. However, his background is quite controversial, as the son-in-law of the Estee Lauder heir, Warsh has almost no formal economics background and has repeatedly misjudged the market and economy during the financial crisis.

Regarding Trump's tariffs, Warsh believes the impact on inflation is "small and transitory," and may even be offset by the deflationary effects of deregulation and spending cuts.

Warsh believes the impact of tariffs on inflation is "small and transitory"

In a commentary published in January in The Wall Street Journal, Warsh discussed his views on how the Federal Reserve should respond to inflation and his perspective on the impact of Trump's tariffs on inflation.

He believes that the Federal Reserve should not attribute inflation to the COVID-19 pandemic, the Russia-Ukraine conflict, or the upcoming Trump tariffs, pointing out that inflation actually stems from "excessive government spending and excessive money printing by the central bank."

Warsh questioned the Federal Reserve officials' predictions regarding political policies. He specifically noted that when Federal Reserve officials predicted that Trump's tariff policies would drive up inflation, they overlooked the comprehensive effects of other potential policies.

In the article, Warsh clearly stated that the inflationary effects of tariff policies may be far smaller than the deflationary effects brought about by deregulation and spending cuts. He pointed out that trade accounts for only about 25% of U.S. GDP, and the proposed 10% general tariff by Trump would only have a "small and transitory" effect on the overall price level.

The controversial background of Estee Lauder's "son-in-law"

Unlike former Federal Reserve Chairs such as Powell and Yellen, Warsh does not come from an economics background, and his personal background is quite controversial.

As a lawyer, Warsh worked at Morgan Stanley until 2002, then entered the George W. Bush administration in a mid-level economic position, and was appointed as a Federal Reserve Governor in 2006, serving until 2011.

In 2017, a report by Truthout described Warsh's path to success as "the art of marrying into wealth and ascending the ladder." The report pointed out that Warsh's father-in-law is billionaire Ronald Lauder, heir to the Estee Lauder cosmetics empire and a major donor to the Republican Party.This report criticizes Walsh for "almost getting everything wrong" during his tenure as a Federal Reserve governor.

In a speech in March 2007, when the real estate bubble was rapidly deflating and financial markets were increasingly turbulent, Walsh was still touting the explosive growth of credit default swaps and other derivative instruments, failing to foresee the problems that these poorly regulated markets would encounter in the following year and a half.

After the crisis, however, Walsh was overly concerned about inflation and opposed measures to stimulate the economy.

In October 2008, when the U.S. economy was on the brink of collapse, Walsh expressed skepticism about the effectiveness of fiscal stimulus policies. He even cited some labor market data to argue that the economy might not be that bad.

He failed to recognize the severity of the recession and the consequences of mass unemployment, a stance that persisted until 2009. In September of that year, before the unemployment rate peaked, Walsh was already worried about the need to reverse the Federal Reserve's stimulus measures to prevent inflation from returning.

At that time, Walsh continued to oppose the Federal Reserve's efforts to stimulate the economy, repeatedly expressing concerns about inflation, until he resigned in early 2011