Breakfast | Trump: Threatens to fire Powell; will reach a very good trade agreement with China

Market Overview

Among the three major U.S. stock indices, only the S&P closed higher, while all fell for the week, with the Nasdaq experiencing three consecutive declines. Among the seven tech giants, only Apple saw an increase, while Nvidia dropped nearly 3% and fell 8.5% for the week. After its earnings report, Netflix rose over 4% in after-hours trading. UnitedHealth plummeted 22%, dragging down the Dow. With positive results from weight loss drug trials, Eli Lilly rose 14%. TSMC exceeded profit expectations, rising nearly 4% in early trading but later giving back most of its gains. The China concept index has seen three consecutive declines. On its first day of trading in the U.S., Bawang Chaji's IPO saw an intraday rise of nearly 50%. The pan-European stock index has seen two consecutive declines but still rose 4% for the week.

After the European Central Bank cut interest rates, German bond yields and the euro hit new daily lows. U.S. bond yields rebounded, marking the first increase this week. The dollar index also rebounded.

Crude oil rose over 3%, gaining about 5% for the week. Spot gold briefly fell nearly 2%.

During the Asian session, A-shares experienced volatile consolidation, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising for eight consecutive days. Consumer stocks were actively traded, and the Hang Seng Index closed up 1.6%, with real estate stocks strengthening. Government bond futures fell across the board.

Trump Slams Powell, Claims He is "Playing Politics," Threatens to Fire Him

U.S. President Trump launched a series of attacks on Federal Reserve Chairman Powell on Thursday, accusing him of "playing politics" by not cutting interest rates and claiming he has the right to "swiftly" dismiss Powell, expressing anticipation for the day Powell leaves office. He also stated that the Federal Reserve should lower interest rates and described Powell's recent comments on the economy as "a mess." Contrary to Trump's claim that Powell would resign if asked, Powell stated he has no plans to resign before his term ends in May next year.

According to the Wall Street Journal, Trump has privately discussed firing Powell for months and has talked about this with former Fed governor Warsh, including the possibility of subsequently choosing Warsh to replace Powell.

Politico cited sources saying that U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin has repeatedly warned White House officials against attempting to fire Fed Chairman Powell, stating that such a move could undermine financial market stability.

Trump: We Will Reach a Very Good Trade Agreement with China

Reports indicate that Trump expects to reach a trade agreement with China, although he did not provide specific details or explain how dialogue would proceed amid the apparent stalemate between the two superpowers. Trump stated at the White House, "I think we will reach a very good agreement with China." China's Ministry of Commerce spokesperson He Yong stated last Thursday that the Ministry has maintained normal communication with its U.S. counterparts and that China's position has always been clear, remaining open to consultations with the U.S. in the economic and trade fields.

Trump: 100% Confident in Reaching a Trade Agreement with the EU, U.S. Treasury Secretary: Negotiations with Japan are Progressing Very Satisfactorily.

Trump stated that he expects progress toward a trade agreement but is not in a hurry to finalize it, also mentioning that he anticipates imposing high baseline tariffs on imported goods. Earlier, he mentioned having a "very productive" call with the President of Mexico on Wednesday and a "very productive" meeting with the Japanese trade representative.

Both Trump and Italian Prime Minister Meloni expressed confidence that the U.S. and Europe could reach a trade agreement before the 90-day suspension period for certain tariffs ends. Trump stated that he is 100% confident in reaching a final trade agreement with Europe, marking his greatest confidence in negotiations since the tariff policy caused turmoil in global markets

Netflix's Performance Exceeds Expectations

Netflix (NFLX) reported data that comprehensively exceeded Wall Street expectations. Although the market reacted tepidly in the early after-hours trading, the stock price quickly surged, rising over 4.4%, with the increase at one point exceeding 5%.

According to the earnings report, Netflix's adjusted earnings per share for the first quarter were $6.61, with revenue of $10.54 billion. In contrast, analysts surveyed by FactSet had expected earnings per share of $5.67 and revenue of $10.5 billion. The company also stated that it maintains its revenue forecast range for the full year of 2025 at $43.5 billion to $44.5 billion, noting that "there has been no significant change in the overall business outlook since the last earnings report."

UBS analyst John Hodulik pointed out in a report released on Monday that Netflix's record subscription growth in the fourth quarter, combined with price increases, has laid a solid foundation for growth this year. He specifically mentioned that the return of popular series such as "Stranger Things," "Squid Game," and "Wednesday" will further help the platform maintain user stickiness. He gave Netflix a "Buy" rating with a target price of $1,140, implying a 19% upside from Wednesday's closing price.

Plummeting 22%! UnitedHealth Lowers Full-Year Profit Guidance

UnitedHealth Group's first-quarter performance fell short of expectations, with earnings per share of $7.20, below the expected $7.29. The company lowered its fiscal year 2025 earnings per share forecast to $26-$26.5, significantly below the market expectation of $29.74. CEO Andrew Witty stated that the company is facing challenges and is actively responding, adjusting its annual profit expectations, and anticipating rising costs.

Eli Lilly Soars as Oral Weight Loss Drug Shows Excellent Phase 3 Trial Data

Last night, Eli Lilly announced that its oral GLP-1 drug orforglipron "showed statistically significant efficacy results and safety consistent with injectable GLP-1 drugs in successful Phase 3 trials."

Eli Lilly's CEO pointed out that "as a convenient once-daily pill, orforglipron may provide a new option that, if approved, can be easily produced and launched on a large scale for people around the world."

This indicates that the GLP-1 field is shifting from injectable formulations developed by Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to convenient pill forms, with Eli Lilly taking the lead.

Surge in Orders Ahead of Tariffs, TSMC's Q1 Net Profit Up 60% Year-on-Year Exceeding Expectations

TSMC reported first-quarter revenue of NT$839.25 billion, a year-on-year increase of 42%, partly due to stockpiling ahead of tariff policies. The company expects second-quarter sales to be between $28.4 billion and $29.2 billion, with an operating profit margin of 47% to 49%, and a gross margin of 57% to 59%.

At the earnings call, TSMC currently expects to begin mass production of 2nm chips in the second half of this year, with strong demand for artificial intelligence from U.S. clients such as Apple, necessitating an expansion of capacity in the U.S., with approximately 30% of the 2nm capacity expected to be located in Arizona

Weak Growth Prompts ECB Rate Cut, Market Bets on Further Easing

The European Central Bank (ECB) cut rates for the seventh time in a year and warned that economic growth would be severely impacted by U.S. tariffs, prompting the market to increase bets on further easing in the coming months. Policymakers unanimously agreed to lower the benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 2.25%. ECB President Christine Lagarde stated at a press conference, "The downside risks to economic growth have increased." Although Lagarde provided little information on the central bank's next steps, some of her colleagues indicated that the threshold for further rate cuts is low. Unnamed sources told Reuters that a rate cut in June is still very likely, and only a significant easing of trade tensions could persuade them to pause cuts.

IMF to Significantly Downgrade Growth Forecasts Due to Trade Tensions, But No Global Recession Expected

International Monetary Fund (IMF) President Kristalina Georgieva stated that escalating trade tensions and significant changes in the global trading system will prompt the IMF to downgrade economic forecasts, but a global recession is not expected. Georgieva noted that recent U.S. tariffs and retaliatory measures from China and the EU have driven a restructuring of the global trading system, leading to high uncertainty in global trade policies and severe volatility in financial markets, putting economies under strain.

Georgieva mentioned that both the U.S. and China have grievances regarding trade, but both countries need to reduce uncertainty and reach an agreement on a fairer, rules-based trading system. She also welcomed India's decision to reduce trade barriers.

U.S. Initial Jobless Claims Hit Two-Month Low, Tariffs Suppress Single-Family Home Construction

Initial jobless claims in the U.S. fell to the lowest level in two months last week, indicating that labor market conditions remained stable in April, despite uncertainties surrounding tariffs making companies reluctant to increase hiring. For the week ending April 12, initial jobless claims, seasonally adjusted, decreased by 9,000 to 215,000, the lowest level since February. Trump's import tariffs are also squeezing the housing market, with single-family home starts in March dropping to an eight-month low, reinforcing economists' expectations that economic growth may stagnate in the first quarter.

Ukraine and the U.S. Set to Sign Cooperation Agreement as Early as Next Week

Trump stated that Ukraine and the U.S. are set to sign a mineral and economic cooperation agreement that both sides have been negotiating as early as next week. Trump told reporters at the White House, "We have reached a mineral agreement, which I guess will be signed on Thursday." Ukraine indicated that Kyiv and Washington have signed a memorandum, marking the first step toward an agreement on the development of Ukraine's mineral resources.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated that China is supplying weapons and ammunition to Russia. This is his first public accusation of China directly providing military assistance to Russia. Zelensky mentioned at a press conference that the Ukrainian government also has intelligence on China producing weapons within Russia, and he will provide more details next week.

The Russian Foreign Ministry stated that Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov told U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio that Moscow is willing to continue working with Washington to eliminate the long-standing roots of the Ukraine conflict. The Russian Foreign Ministry's statement noted that Rubio outlined the results of the U.S. delegation's talks with European and Ukrainian officials in Paris during a phone conversation

Survey Shows: Probability of a U.S. Recession in the Next 12 Months Approaches 50%

Economists surveyed by Reuters believe that the aggressive tariff policies in the U.S. will lead to a significant slowdown in the American economy over the next two years, with median forecasts indicating that the probability of a recession in the next 12 months approaches 50%.

U.S. bond giant PIMCO stated that the protectionism in U.S. trade policy has strengthened the rationale for reducing exposure to the dollar and long-term U.S. Treasury risks, making reliance on foreign bond markets more attractive. Marc Seidner, Chief Investment Officer of PIMCO's Non-Traditional Strategies, and Pramol Dhawan, Head of Emerging Markets Portfolio Management, noted in a report: "The shift in U.S. protectionist policies gives global investors the opportunity to rethink long-held assumptions about the investment outlook in the U.S."