Zhitong Hong Kong Stock Analysis | Raising the Banner of Justice Gains More Support, Southeast Asian Concepts Rise and Fall

[Market Dissection]

The A-shares have been showing a pattern of small upward movements for several consecutive days, thanks to the support from national team funds stabilizing the situation. Meanwhile, the U.S. stock market is undergoing adjustments, leading to a rebound in the Hong Kong stock market today, with the Hang Seng Index closing up 1.61%.

California, the largest state by population and economic scale in the U.S., is struggling. On April 16, California Governor Gavin Newsom announced a lawsuit against the Trump administration regarding tariff issues, criticizing the administration's abuse of tariff policies as "illegal." California is the strongest economic state in the U.S., with a GDP of $3.9 trillion in 2023 and an import-export trade volume approaching $675 billion in 2024. California is the largest importing state in the U.S., with Mexico, Canada, and China being its top three export destinations, accounting for more than one-third of the state's $183 billion in exports in 2024. This has a strong demonstration effect, and if it spreads nationwide, Trump is likely to face significant challenges.

Things are getting worse. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, in a speech at the Chicago Economic Club, stated: "Given the significant changes in President Trump's tariff system, it is understandable that the market will face difficulties." When asked whether the Federal Reserve would intervene to respond to the sharp decline in the stock market, Powell replied, "My answer is no, but I will provide an explanation."

In fact, Trump has always wanted to get the Federal Reserve on his side, hoping for cooperation, but this statement indicates that he cannot do so because the Federal Reserve is controlled by the deep state and serves as the last line of defense, which will not easily cooperate. Moreover, if inflation does not come down, lowering interest rates would be a poison pill; the only one who can save the U.S. stock market is Trump himself.

We are also taking frequent actions. Reports indicate that China will convene an informal meeting of the United Nations Security Council next week to discuss the issue of U.S. tariffs. This is a time for China to raise the banner of justice, as the saying goes, "Those who are righteous will have many allies, while those who are unjust will have few." However, it also retains flexibility.

He Yongqian, spokesperson for the Ministry of Commerce: "The Chinese Ministry of Commerce has maintained communication with the relevant U.S. departments at the working level. China's position has always been clear, and we are open to consultations with the U.S. in the economic and trade fields. The unilateral tariff measures were entirely initiated by the U.S., and the one who tied the bell must untie it. We urge the U.S. to immediately stop extreme pressure, cease coercion and extortion, and resolve differences with China through equal dialogue based on mutual respect."

Following a series of agreements with Vietnam, China and Malaysia issued a joint statement on building a high-level strategic China-Malaysia community of shared destiny: Both sides will jointly expand cooperation in new productive forces, focusing on advanced manufacturing, artificial intelligence, quantum technology, and other cutting-edge fields to create new growth points for cooperation, strengthen smart city cooperation, and enhance the integration of industrial and supply chains. Malaysia welcomes Chinese enterprises to participate in the construction of Malaysia's 5G network, and both sides are committed to exploring cooperation potential in the semiconductor industry and maintaining stability in the production and supply chain.

The market is mainly reacting to the digital center sector. GDS Holdings Limited (09698): has data center operations in Hong Kong, Singapore, Malaysia, and other locations, with an IT power capacity of 881.2 megawatts at its Malaysian data center. Today, it rose over 10%. Another company is Yang Ming Marine Transport Corporation (02510): although the freight rates for the U.S. West Coast routes have significantly declined, there is a noticeable surge in Southeast Asia, and the market is expected to continue improving in the second quarter. The company focuses on container shipping in the Asia-Pacific region and rose nearly 12% today In the past two years, as competition in the domestic market of the new tea beverage industry has intensified and growth in Southeast Asia has slowed, many brands have begun to expand into overseas markets. The Southeast Asian market has become the preferred destination for new tea beverage brands going abroad for three main reasons: demographic dividend and Chinese population base: the total population of Southeast Asian countries is about 600 million, with a majority concentrated around the age of 30, making it relatively young; tropical climate and demand for cold drinks: the temperature in Southeast Asia is close to 30°C year-round, leading to strong demand for cold beverages; cultural gene of tea drinking: Southeast Asia shares a cultural gene of tea drinking with China, showing a preference for tea and milk tea beverages.

A more critical factor is that with the continuous rise of China's influence, Chinese new tea beverages have become a fashion trend. Additionally, Southeast Asia is actively aligning with China, making it relatively easier and more controllable to develop this market. Leading brand Mixue (02097) surged over 6%, while the bottomed-out Cha Baidao (02555) rose over 10%.

Yesterday's market analysis had a powerful headline: "Real Estate Expectations Strengthen with Capital Support." Real estate stocks rallied across the board today, with the latest catalyst being Premier Li Qiang's remarks during a research visit in Beijing, stating that there is still significant development space in China's real estate market and that market potential needs to be further released.

Moreover, media reports indicate that a package of positive policies is being accelerated, including the restart of an expanded shantytown renovation plan, increased storage scale, and a reduction in the five-year LPR. The enhancement of policy expectations is catalyzing a speculative market in this sector. Real estate is a breakthrough point for "stabilizing domestic demand," with attention on the Q2 policy window and emphasis on left-side layout opportunities, focusing on interest rate cuts, storage, urban renewal, and first-tier purchase restrictions as main directions. With the upcoming Politburo meeting, the central government's incremental policy direction and the implementation of new industrial policies may keep the capital market active. Related stocks such as New Town Development (01030), Yuexiu Property (00123), Vanke (02202), China Overseas Land & Investment (00688), and China Resources Land (01109) are showing stronger trends, as they lean towards the direction of shantytown renovation.

Yesterday, Tencent (00700) was mentioned, and today more good news is reported. Recently, WeChat launched a new feature allowing users to search for "Yuanbao" and add it as a friend, enabling direct interaction in the WeChat chat interface. The official introduction states that it "is equipped with the Hongyuan and DeepSeek dual-mode engine, seamlessly connecting to the WeChat ecosystem. It can analyze public account articles and any images and documents with one click, providing instant detailed explanations after short comments, and supports various intelligent interactions with the interpreted content."

Tencent's biggest advantage is its deep moat, and its massive traffic is its core competitiveness. The ability to add "Yuanbao" as a friend in WeChat signifies Tencent's first step into AI Agents. Membership subscriptions are the most direct charging method for Tencent Yuanbao. Although the probability of launching a membership subscription charging mechanism in the short term is low, it will open up monetization space for the C-end in the medium to long term. Tencent (00700) rose over 2% today. Additionally, the mentioned overseas e-commerce concept Alibaba (09888) also rose over 3%.

On April 17, at the invitation of the China Council for the Promotion of International Trade, NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang arrived in Beijing. Three months ago, Huang expressed in China that he wanted to continue cooperating with China. The H20 stripped version has been banned, leaving Huang quite frustrated. He didn't expect that his recent attempt to please Trump with a $500 billion investment would end up the same way. But upon careful consideration, the Chinese market is definitely one that cannot be lost, just like Cook, who ultimately received an exemption Therefore, the chips still need to be observed in the future.

Speaking of the strong recent performance of gold, spot gold broke through $3,350 per ounce this morning, continuing to refresh its historical high, while COMEX gold is currently reported at $3,359.5 per ounce. However, today gold stocks experienced a pullback after a surge, with Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining Co., Ltd. (06693) once rising over 15%, closing down 4.81%, and a significant volume was released. A rapid rise today will certainly lead to a correction, so caution is advised in the short term.

【Sector Focus】

The global automotive industry is undergoing unprecedented changes, with the rapid rise of Chinese electric vehicles posing severe challenges to established European automakers. "Europe once helped China learn to manufacture cars, but the situation is changing now."

A well-known media outlet published a lengthy article on April 16, pointing out that Chinese automakers have become leaders in various advanced technologies, and more and more European automakers are seeking cooperation with Chinese companies to avoid falling behind in key areas. The European Union is also trying to catch up with China's innovation by exchanging market access for key technologies. Western companies were once concerned that their intellectual property would be "stolen" while doing business in China, but now they find that China has similar concerns. Executives in the automotive industry have stated that Beijing is working to ensure that technologies developed in China do not flow into Europe due to cooperation agreements.

What does it mean that fortunes change every thirty years? New energy vehicles are a typical representative. With the gradual decline of American hegemony, it is a trend for Europe to actively align with China, and the potential of new energy vehicles in the European market is worth looking forward to.

The main varieties laid out in Europe include: BYD Company Limited (01211), XPeng (09868), Li Auto (02015), Leapmotor (09863), and Geely Automobile Holdings Limited (00175).

【Stock Picking】

Innovent Biologics, Inc. (01801): Multiple R&D pipelines will enter the harvest period, and Ma Shidu peptide is expected to be approved by mid-year.

In 2024, the company's total revenue is expected to reach 9.42 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 51.8%; product revenue is expected to be 8.23 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 43.6%. The company has achieved positive Non-IFRS profit for the first time (330 million yuan) and positive EBITDA (410 million yuan), with IFRS losses narrowing by 90.8% year-on-year.

Comment: The company's performance last year exceeded expectations, and it has made breakthroughs in multiple fields, with listed products continuing to increase in volume. Multiple R&D pipelines are about to enter the product harvest period, and Innovent Biologics currently has a portfolio of 15 commercialized products. New product growth is significant, with R&D milestones being fulfilled, among which Tyvyt (sintilimab injection) is the company's flagship product, with annual sales expected to reach $526 million in 2024. The oncology and comprehensive product lines drive long-term growth, with a revenue target of 20 billion yuan by 2027.

In terms of long-term growth, the oncology represented by Tyvyt (PD-1) and the comprehensive product line represented by Ma Shidu peptide (GLP-1/GCG) will provide continuous momentum for future growth. In the oncology field, there are subdivisions such as hematological tumors, TKI precision therapy, and broad-spectrum biopharmaceuticals. In the comprehensive product line, there are fields such as ophthalmology, autoimmune diseases, and cardiovascular and metabolic (CVM) areas. It is expected that by 2027, product revenue will reach 20 billion yuan, and the dual-drive will continue to expand growth space At least 20 approved products will continue to ramp up production, while newly introduced key clinical innovative molecules and indications will further expand the business scope. The rich clinical I/II phase innovative pipeline also provides strong momentum for future development.

The company is actively expanding into the chronic disease field, including obesity, diabetes, and cardiovascular diseases, to create a second growth pole outside the oncology sector. The strategic cooperation with international pharmaceutical companies such as Eli Lilly and Roche is also progressing smoothly, providing new momentum for future development.

Masitide is expected to be approved by mid-year, with several chronic disease products making progress ahead of schedule, and a differentiated layout for the next generation of weight loss products