Hong Kong Stock Concept Tracking | Gold Breaks Through $3,350 to Set New Highs! Gold Stocks Welcome Window Period (Including Concept Stocks)

According to the Zhitong Finance APP, due to rising safe-haven demand, a decline in the dollar, and a sharp drop in U.S. tech stocks, gold soared to a new high on Wednesday, with spot gold surpassing $3,340 per ounce, exceeding the historical record set on Monday, and has now broken through $3,350. Notably, this marks the third time in the past five trading days that the spot gold price has refreshed its historical record, with an intraday increase of over 3% and a cumulative increase of more than 25% year-to-date. Analysts have stated that the escalating trade war has raised concerns about a global economic recession, and the unpredictability of tariffs announced by Washington makes it difficult for investors to establish long-term positions. In this environment, gold is seen as the most favored safe-haven asset.

On the news front, on Tuesday, U.S. President Trump signed an executive order to investigate the national security risks associated with the U.S. reliance on imported processed critical minerals and their derivatives—this is seen as a prelude to imposing tariffs, which may further escalate the trade war.

In this environment, gold is viewed as the most favored safe-haven asset. Tim Waterer, Chief Market Analyst at KCM Trade, stated that various factors, including the depreciation of the dollar and ongoing safe-haven demand, are favorable for gold.

Nicholas Frappell, Global Head of Market at ABC Refinery, noted that increased uncertainty over tariffs, a tougher stance from the U.S. government, and tariffs affecting goods transported through third-party countries could harm global supply chains, all of which support gold prices.

Additionally, traders are betting that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at least three times this year, and overall monetary easing policies are favorable for precious metals.

Looking ahead, ANZ Bank believes that safe-haven buying of gold has not yet accelerated. The bank has raised its year-end gold price forecast to $3,600 per ounce and its six-month gold price forecast to $3,500 per ounce. Last Friday, Goldman Sachs analysts predicted that gold prices would rise to $3,700 per ounce by the end of this year and reach $4,000 per ounce by mid-2026.

As the trade war weakens the credibility of the dollar, the upward momentum of gold prices is forming a collective force, significantly increasing the probability of growth in gold companies' performance.

(1) Trump's significant tariff increases on a global scale have heightened market concerns about the risks of a U.S. economic recession and U.S. debt repayment risks. As the dollar index declines rapidly, the market has formed a collective narrative around the weakening credibility of the dollar, and the end of the divergence in gold prices has opened up valuation space for gold companies.

(2) With the substantial rise in gold prices, the performance growth of gold stocks is likely to achieve higher levels and durations, enhancing market confidence in investing in gold companies.

On the numerator side: Gold prices are expected to continue rising, boosting corporate EPS. In addition to the increasing expectations of stagflation in the U.S., the U.S. approach of imposing significant tariffs globally has raised market concerns about the collapse of the global monetary system, highlighting the importance of gold as a store of value. Gold prices have ample upward momentum, and the profit release of gold stocks is also expected to be smoother.

On the denominator side: The precious metals sector is at a historical low PE level, and there is potential for valuation adjustments. As of April 1, 2025, the PE of the precious metals index is 19.51, at the 9.17% percentile level over ten years and at the 18.41% percentile level over five years. The strengthening of the upward momentum in gold prices essentially enhances the sustainability and stability of performance growth in gold mining companies, which is expected to systematically repair the industry PE level, with potential for valuation adjustments Tianfeng Securities pointed out that the current valuation of gold stocks is at the 20th percentile of the five-year period, and the sector has both space and momentum for recovery, with the "scissor gap" of gold stocks converging to welcome a window period.

Related concept stocks:

Zhaojin Mining (01818): The company possesses exceptionally excellent gold resources, with existing mines in stable production. The acquisition of Tietuo and the commissioning of overseas projects provide continuous momentum for the company's future performance growth. Currently, the escalation of geopolitical risks has increased the demand for safe-haven assets, and factors such as the Federal Reserve's direction of interest rate cuts and the weakening of the US dollar's credit are expected to keep gold prices on an upward trend in the medium to long term, enhancing the company's overall profitability.

Shandong Gold (01787): Considering the company's inventory situation and the ongoing multiple new construction and expansion projects, as well as the rich gold resources of its parent company Shandong Gold Group, there is also an expectation of asset injection in the future, while gold prices still have upward potential. The forecast for the company's net profit attributable to the parent from 2024 to 2026 is expected to be 3.030 billion, 5.083 billion, and 5.938 billion yuan, respectively.

Lingbao Gold (03330): As of the end of 2023, the company's total gold reserves and resources both domestically and internationally are approximately 137.40 tons, with an average grade of 5.44g/t, of which about 103.5 tons are domestic, mainly in Henan, Xinjiang, and Inner Mongolia, and about 34.0 tons are overseas (Kyrgyzstan). The company's Laowan Gold Mine in Tongbai County has rich reserves and significant potential for resource expansion. From 2011 to 2019, a total of 166 drill holes were completed in the Laowan Gold Mine exploration area, with a drilling length of 115,800 meters and a discovery rate of 94%, submitting a gold resource amount of 208 tons. At the same time, the company is looking globally and implementing a "going out strategy," planning to establish an overseas business department in the first half of 2024 to focus on high-quality overseas resources