Powell shatters hopes for market rescue, Nasdaq falls over 3%, NVIDIA plunges 10% at one point, gold surges to a new high

The shadow of the tariff war looms, threatening global trade and the economy, WTO sounds the alarm; the financial reports of leading chip companies and the expected impact of export controls serve as warnings; Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speech hinted at the dangers of stagflation, crushing market expectations for Fed intervention, leading to multiple blows to the U.S. stock market on Wednesday, with tech stocks leading the decline. Safe-haven assets collectively rose, with gold hitting a record high during the session and achieving the largest increase in over a year, while U.S. Treasury prices rose further.

The chip industry faced a series of negative news. According to reports from Shanghai Securities News and China Securities Journal, NVIDIA disclosed that the company recently received a notification from the U.S. government that exports of H20 chips and related products to China and other countries and regions require a license, with expected costs related to this product in the first fiscal quarter amounting to $5.5 billion; AMD stated that U.S. export control policies apply to the company's MI308 series products, with expected export controls potentially leading to costs of up to approximately $800 million.

Bad news also came from the European chip industry "barometer" ASML, highlighting the risks of demand destruction due to tariffs. ASML reported that its first-quarter order volume was more than 18% lower than analysts' expectations, and its second-quarter revenue guidance also fell short of expectations, failing to show signs of demand improvement. The company's CEO warned that the recently announced tariffs by the U.S. create uncertainty for the industry, and "uncertainty among some customers" may lead to the company's annual revenue only reaching the lower end of the guidance range.

During the U.S. stock market's midday session, Powell's speech further impacted the U.S. stock market. He reiterated that the Federal Reserve will wait and see, considering interest rate cuts only when the situation is clearer, and warned that the Fed faces a dilemma of conflicting dual goals of inflation and economic growth, which is seen as raising concerns about stagflation. Powell also denied the existence of a Fed Put to rescue the market, emphasizing that the market is orderly and operating as expected.

After Powell's speech, chip stocks further declined, with NVIDIA and AMD dropping nearly 10%, dragging the three major stock indices to new daily lows, erasing most of the gains from the past week, while the dollar's decline widened, approaching a three-year low, and U.S. Treasury yields hit new daily lows.

After Powell's speech, the three major U.S. stock indices accelerated their decline, with the Dow Jones dropping over 970 points, down more than 2%, the S&P falling over 3%, and the Nasdaq dropping over 4%. Tech stocks led by NVIDIA were the biggest losers in the S&P, while the energy sector, supported by a rebound in crude oil, stood out.

• The three major indices fell for two consecutive days to a one-week low, closing down nearly 2%. The S&P closed down 2.24%, the Dow closed down 699.57 points, a decline of 1.73%, and the Nasdaq closed down 3.07%

• The small-cap index Russell 2000, dominated by value stocks, fell 1.03%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 index dropped 3.04%. The Nasdaq Technology Market Capitalization Weighted Index (NDXTMC), which measures the performance of tech stocks in the Nasdaq 100, fell 3.62%, all retreating after three consecutive gains.
• Among the Dow components, Nvidia led the decline with a nearly 7% drop, Amgen fell over 4%, Apple dropped nearly 4%, while Travelers, which reported better-than-expected earnings in the first quarter, rose 1.1%.
• In the S&P 500 sectors, only the energy sector, which rose 0.8%, saw gains. The IT sector, where Nvidia is located, fell nearly 4%, non-essential consumer goods, where Tesla is located, dropped 2.7%, and communication services, where Meta is located, fell nearly 2.5%.
• Most U.S. stock industry ETFs closed lower. The semiconductor ETF led the decline, falling over 4.22%, the tech sector ETF dropped 3.47%, the global tech stock index ETF fell 3.28%, the consumer discretionary ETF dropped 2.47%, while the energy sector ETF rose 0.82%.

• The "Seven Tech Giants" all fell. Nvidia dropped about 10.5% when it hit a new daily low during the midday session, closing down nearly 6.9%. Tesla fell nearly 5%, Apple dropped nearly 3.9%, Microsoft and Meta fell nearly 3.7%, Amazon dropped over 2.9%, and Alphabet fell 2%.

• Chip stocks saw a significant decline after three consecutive gains, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index falling 4.1%. AMD hit a new daily low towards the end of U.S. trading, dropping 10.5% and closing down nearly 6.4%; TSMC fell 3.6%, and Intel and Texas Instruments dropped 3.1%.
• AI concept stocks generally fell, with Applovin down 6.4%, Palantir down about 5.8%, and Dell down 2.5%.
• Popular Chinese concept stocks experienced two consecutive declines overall. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index (HXC) fell over 2.7%. Kingsoft Cloud dropped 16.82%, Century Internet fell 12.06%, JD.com dropped 5.64%, XPeng fell 5.55%, and Alibaba dropped 4.93%.
• Among the volatile individual stocks, transportation company J.B. Hunt Transport Services fell 7.7% after reporting an 8% decline in operating profit for the first quarter; electronic trading platform Interactive Brokers dropped nearly 9% after reporting lower-than-expected earnings for the first quarter After hedge fund Pershing Square disclosed a stake of approximately $46.5 million, rental car company Hertz surged 56.4%.

The pan-European stock index halted a four-day winning streak, with the technology sector, including ASML, leading the decline, while rising oil prices supported the oil and gas sector to close higher against the trend.

• The pan-European stock index fell from a high of over a week. On Tuesday, the European Stoxx 600 index, which had reached its highest level since April 3 for two consecutive days, closed down 0.19%.
• Among the sectors in the Stoxx 600, technology fell about 2% to lead the decline, with ASML, the highest market capitalization chip stock listed in the Netherlands, dropping as much as 7.6% during the day and closing down 5.2%; the industrial sector fell about 1%, and basic resources fell nearly 0.5%; while the oil and gas sector rose about 1.2%.
• Major European country stock indices showed mixed results on Wednesday, with German, Italian, and Spanish stocks rising for three consecutive days, UK stocks rising for five consecutive days, and French stocks, which had risen for two consecutive days, slightly retreating, while ASML dragged down the Dutch stock index to close down 0.42%.

In the bond market, after Powell's speech, U.S. Treasury yields accelerated their decline, generally refreshing daily lows and falling for three consecutive days.

• European government bond prices rose broadly, with UK inflation in March cooling more than expected, benefiting the Bank of England's rate cut, leading to a decline of at least over 4 basis points in medium to long-term UK bond yields. By the end of the bond market, the yield on the UK 10-year benchmark government bond was about 4.60%, down 4 basis points during the day; the yield on the benchmark 10-year German government bond was about 2.50%, down about 3 basis points during the day.

• The U.S. 10-year benchmark Treasury yield broke above 4.35% in early trading, refreshing the daily high, then continued to decline, with the decline expanding during Powell's speech, at one point approaching 4.26%, refreshing the low since April 9, and by the end of the bond market, it was about 4.28%, down about 5 basis points during the day.

• The 2-year U.S. Treasury yield, which is more sensitive to interest rate prospects, "gapped down" at the open, approaching 3.83% in early Asian trading, refreshing the daily high, and during the U.S. stock market's midday trading, it fell below 3.77%, also refreshing the low since April 9, and by the end of the bond market, it was about 3.77%, down about 7 basis points during the day.

In the foreign exchange market, after Powell's speech, the U.S. dollar index fell 1% during the day, approaching a three-year low; the Swiss franc rebounded over 1%, and the Japanese yen rebounded to a six-month high; the offshore renminbi rose nearly 400 points to break 7.30; Bitcoin surged over $2,000 to reach the $85,000 mark.

• The ICE U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) expanded its decline after Powell's speech, refreshing the daily low to 99.174 at the end of the U.S. stock market, with a daily decline of slightly over 1%, approaching the low since April 2022 refreshed last Friday, after reversing a five-day decline on Tuesday

• Among safe-haven currencies, the Swiss franc rebounded over 1% during the session, with the USD/CHF nearing 0.8120 at the end of the US stock market, down nearly 1.4% for the day; the Japanese yen also rebounded, with the USD/JPY falling to 141.65 at the end of the US stock market, refreshing the lowest level in over six months set last Friday, down nearly 1.1% for the day.
• The offshore renminbi (CNH) against the US dollar, which had fallen for two consecutive days, maintained an upward trend after the US stock market opened, refreshing the daily high to 7.2955 at the end of the US stock market, up 392 points from the daily low in the Asian market. As of 4:59 AM Beijing time on April 17, the offshore renminbi against the US dollar was reported at 7.2989, up 297 points from Tuesday's New York close.
• Bitcoin (BTC) broke above $85,200 during the US stock market's midday session, refreshing the daily high, rising over $2,000 from the pre-market low, an increase of nearly 3%. At the close of the US stock market, it was above $84,400, and it turned to decline multiple times in the short term, with a recent increase of about 0.5% in the last 24 hours.

In terms of commodities, the United States announced new sanctions against Iranian oil exports, causing crude oil to rebound nearly 2% to a nearly two-week high. Gold rose over 3% during the session, marking the largest increase since October 2023, with spot gold reaching a historical high again this week. The weakening dollar boosted copper prices, which rose over 1% to a nearly two-week high.

• On Tuesday, international crude oil, which had stopped rising for two consecutive days, rebounded, refreshing the closing high since April 3. WTI May crude oil futures closed up nearly 1.86%, at $62.47 per barrel. Brent June crude oil futures closed up 1.82%, at $65.85 per barrel.

• Gold maintained its upward trend throughout Wednesday. When the US stock market refreshed its intraday record high at midday, New York gold futures COMEX June gold futures rose to $3,358.4, up over 3.6% for the day, while spot gold rose to $3,342.54, refreshing the intraday high set on Monday, up nearly 3.5% for the day.

• On Tuesday, New York copper futures, which had ended a four-day rise, rebounded, with COMEX May copper futures closing up nearly 1.3%, at $4.6855, refreshing the high since April 3, and rising nearly 1.6% when the US stock market refreshed its daily high at midday.