Yuyuantan Tian 丨 Data Speaks: Understanding the Driving Force Behind the 5.4% Growth

On April 16, the economic data for the first quarter was released. GDP growth rate: 5.4%.

The GDP growth rate in the fourth quarter of last year had already reached 5.4%. Under this high base, the sustainability of the package of incremental policies announced in September last year and the ability to withstand external changes must be tested through data.

Against this backdrop, the actual data shows that our performance exceeded expectations, giving a good start to the year.

The risks and challenges we will face next will not be few. Understanding the driving force behind the data will help calibrate and strengthen our direction.

Exceeding Expectations in Adjustment Capability

In the first quarter, the added value of China's secondary industry was 11.1903 trillion yuan, growing by 5.9%, making it the fastest-growing sector.

Such results are not surprising. Whether in terms of external environmental changes or internal cyclical adjustments, industrial production has always been the pillar of economic development, with two specific data points worth noting.

First, by product, the production of new energy vehicles, 3D printing equipment, and industrial robots saw rapid year-on-year growth.

The production of 3D printing equipment increased by 44.9% year-on-year in the first quarter, which indicates many issues. Whether on the production side or the consumption side, the application of 3D printing equipment often corresponds to innovative consumption and production scenarios. For example, 3D printers can print human bones for medical use; on the production side, 3D printers can print prototype models of car chassis, allowing for quick and low-cost verification of their shape, size, and compliance with standards. Thus, a small printer can leverage and meet diverse demands on both the production and consumption sides, with new scenarios continuously brewing.

The second data point, by economic type, shows that private enterprises grew by 7.3%, the fastest growth rate. Private enterprises are the main body of innovation and are also more susceptible to fluctuations; they are a typical barometer. For some time, the enormous pressure of economic downturn has posed significant challenges to the production and operation of enterprises. In this situation, their data can better reflect the effectiveness of our adjustments.

A growth rate of 7.3% indicates that both production and consumption sides have stabilized.

This is thanks to the deployment made at last year's Central Economic Work Conference, where "vigorously boosting consumption, improving investment efficiency, and comprehensively expanding domestic demand" was placed at the forefront among the nine key tasks proposed. Supported by the "two new" and "two heavy" policies, related consumer goods maintained double-digit growth, and market sales conditions continued to improve.

The National Development and Reform Commission has also specifically supported the private economy and addressed practical issues: accelerating the legislative process of the Private Economy Promotion Law and publicly soliciting opinions, promoting local governments and departments to focus on private investment, fair access, financing support, and other policies to support the development of the private economy.

The previously released data on goods trade imports and exports also illustrates the situation.

In the first quarter, China's goods trade imports and exports reached 10.3 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.3%. The scale of imports and exports has exceeded 10 trillion yuan for eight consecutive quarters.

Among them, the import and export value of private enterprises accounted for 56.8% of China's total import and export value Not only that, but the diversified adjustments in export destinations also provide confidence in facing external pressures.

In the first quarter, China's import and export with countries involved in the "Belt and Road" initiative reached 5.26 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.2%, accounting for 51.1% of the total import and export value, making it a significant portion.

Private enterprises are the largest entity in foreign trade and also the vanguard of going global.

Speaking of private enterprises, I would like to particularly share about a province, Fujian, where 70% of its GDP comes from the private economy, ranking among the top in the country.

If we review the changes in the ranking of GDP totals of various provinces over the past decade, we can see that Fujian is also one of the provinces that has risen the most in ranking over the past ten years. Its GDP total has risen from 11th place to 8th place in 2024, an increase of three ranks.

Fujian, along with Zhejiang and seven other provinces, contributed to three-quarters of China's total import and export value in the first quarter.

Adjustment brings vitality, and with vitality comes more opportunities.

Advanced Industrial Capability

Among the economic data for the first quarter, one industry deserves special attention: robotics. In the first quarter, the production of industrial robots increased by 26% year-on-year.

The competition among industries in various provinces and cities in China is always a hot topic, and robotics is the latest focus. In addition to industrial robots, other types of robots are also accelerating development.

Among them, humanoid robots are the category with the highest degree of technological integration and the greatest manufacturing difficulty.

If last year, the public discourse around humanoid robots was still fresh and curious, now various regions are scrambling to establish industrial clusters. The reason is simple: by 2050, China's humanoid robot market size is expected to reach 6 trillion yuan, and no one wants to miss out on this new development opportunity.

This is a realistic reflection of the competition in the robotics industry across different regions.

I once discussed the burgeoning humanoid robot industry with Wang Xingxing, the founder of Yushu Technology. He said, the explosion of humanoid robots is not accidental; it is backed by the advantages of industrial chain and supply chain layouts in some core regions. Many components of the robots produced by Yushu Technology do not come from suppliers in the robotics industry, but from other sectors. Key products like motors form a "flexible" supply chain across different industries, significantly reducing production costs and providing a substantial advantage compared to foreign counterparts.

This advantage becomes even more pronounced in the more mature industrial robot industry.

In the first quarter of 2025, the export value of industrial robots from private enterprises increased by 67.4% year-on-year, continuing the high growth trend of 76% throughout 2024. Industrial robots have become key to driving the upgrade of foreign trade structure.

An increase in both volume and price signifies a step towards becoming "definers."

Assurance in Small Data

To understand China's economy in the first quarter, there is another supporting data point. According to statistics from the China Construction Machinery Industry Association, in March 2025, major excavator manufacturers sold a total of 29,590 excavators, a year-on-year increase of 18.5%. Among them, domestic sales were 19,517 units, a year-on-year increase of 28.5%; export volume was 10,073 units, a year-on-year increase of 2.87% Regarding this set of data, there are two observation angles. The first is exports. The major demand for our excavators comes from emerging market countries. In addition, there is also the United States.

Tan noticed that on American social media, an account called Our Life In Trees uploaded a video discussing why they purchased machinery products made in China.

He spent $3,700 to buy a Chinese engineering machinery product, which is a basic version with 14 horsepower and 2 hydraulic pumps, capable of digging trenches, excavating soil, and drilling. The cheapest similar product in the United States costs at least $38,000. If the U.S. maintains the current tariff levels, many people may not be able to afford these machinery tools.

Now looking at the domestic observation angle, what is driving the sales of excavators?

According to the statistics bureau, real estate development investment has decreased in the first quarter of this year.

The excavator industry has not been affected by the pressures of the real estate market; instead, we have seen growth in excavators. Where does this growth come from?

According to the statistics bureau, in the first two months of 2025, fixed asset investment in agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery increased by 14% year-on-year, and investment in water management increased by 39.1%. In fact, many of the "dual heavy" construction projects are related to rural and water conservancy construction.

Small and medium-sized excavators have a wide range of application scenarios in rural infrastructure renovation and water conservancy facility construction.

In the fourth quarter of last year, the National Development and Reform Commission issued in advance the 2025 central budget investment plan of 100 billion yuan and the project list for 100 billion yuan of "dual heavy" construction projects, supporting localities to accelerate preliminary work and start implementation. At the beginning of the year, projects such as high-standard farmland construction achieved a good start.

With the construction of high-standard farmland and regional water conservancy hub facilities, some supporting small-scale water conservancy and agricultural infrastructure construction has penetrated into the capillaries, connecting points into lines and then into networks.

This reflects that continuous investment in rural revitalization has further consolidated and enhanced agricultural and water conservancy infrastructure in many regions, which will also strongly guarantee food security.

Amid domestic cyclical issues and external shocks, the foundation of agricultural production continues to strengthen, which is also the confidence to resist risks in economic development.

The external situation has never been calm; over the past few years, we have experienced weak external demand triggered by the financial crisis and the impact of trade frictions initiated by the United States. The number of global trade intervention measures once remained above 4,700. At such times, the "China economic collapse theory" often resurfaces, yet after so many years, it is still the "China economic collapse theory" that ultimately collapses. At the same time, internally, in the face of cyclical and phased issues, our adjustments have always been problem-oriented, deepening supply-side structural reforms and promoting high-quality economic development. The Chinese economy continues to develop in the process of facing difficulties, confronting difficulties, and solving difficulties.

According to the analysis of Yu Yongding, a member of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, China still has considerable fiscal and monetary policy space, which provides the possibility for us to achieve the annual growth target of around 5%. 5.4%, a good start, next, we need to continue to do our own things well.

Source: CCTV News Original Title: "Yuyuantan Tian | Data Speaks: Understanding the Driving Force Behind the 5.4% Growth"

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