US Stock Outlook | Trump Administration Launches Investigation into Imported Pharmaceuticals and Semiconductors

Pre-Market Market Trends

1. As of April 15 (Tuesday), U.S. stock index futures are all down. As of the time of writing, Dow futures are down 0.24%, S&P 500 futures are down 0.22%, and Nasdaq futures are down 0.17%.

1. As of the time of writing, the German DAX index is up 1.06%, the UK FTSE 100 index is up 0.74%, the French CAC40 index is up 0.00%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 index is up 0.50%.

1. As of the time of writing, WTI crude oil is down 0.60%, priced at $61.16 per barrel. Brent crude oil is down 0.57%, priced at $64.51 per barrel.

Market News

New Tariffs Coming? The Trump Administration Launches Investigation into Imported Pharmaceuticals and Semiconductors. The Trump administration has initiated a national security investigation into imported pharmaceuticals and semiconductors under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act, which may further escalate the comprehensive trade war initiated by Trump. Two notices released by the U.S. Department of Commerce indicate that investigations will begin into the impact of imports of "semiconductors and semiconductor manufacturing equipment" as well as "drugs and drug ingredients, including finished pharmaceuticals" on U.S. national security. The investigation will examine the current and projected demand for pharmaceutical and semiconductor products, the domestic production capacity to meet that demand, and the possibility of export restrictions. According to legal provisions, the Secretary of Commerce is required to submit the investigation results within 270 days, but President Trump and other officials have indicated that this work may conclude more quickly. Trump stated on Monday that he expects to impose tariffs on imported pharmaceuticals "in the near future." Meanwhile, Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo indicated that semiconductor tariffs could be introduced in one to two months.

Bank of America Survey: Fund Managers are the Most Pessimistic about Economic Outlook in 30 Years, U.S. Stocks May Face More Selling. A survey by Bank of America shows that fund managers' views on the economic outlook are the most pessimistic in 30 years, but this pessimism has not fully reflected in their asset allocation, which may indicate that U.S. stocks will face more selling pressure. In Bank of America's monthly survey, 82% of responding fund managers expect a weakening global economy. At the same time, the survey shows that the number of fund managers planning to reduce their exposure to U.S. stocks has reached a record level. In a report led by Michael Hartnett, Bank of America strategists stated, "Fund managers are extremely pessimistic on a macro level, but have not yet reached the most pessimistic level regarding the market itself." They added that the current cash allocation ratio is 4.8% of total assets, while a "panic peak" typically requires this ratio to rise to 6% The high uncertainty of U.S. trade policy and the surge in financial market volatility have left stock investors feeling uneasy. In an April survey, fund managers reported a net reduction of 36% in their holdings of U.S. stocks, compared to a net increase of 17% in February, marking the largest shift in just two months in history.

Undercurrents in the labor market, San Francisco Fed issues warning: multiple indicators suggest an impending economic recession! A research report released by the San Francisco Fed shows that while the unemployment rate in the U.S. has been rising slowly and relatively moderately in recent years, several lesser-known labor market indicators are signaling risks of an economic recession. The authors of the latest issue of the San Francisco Fed's "Economic Letter" found that prior to past economic recessions, the unemployed generally exhibited characteristics of prolonged job search cycles and increasing time spent in unemployment. "Historically, such patterns often appear in the early stages of economic recessions, suggesting that the current changes may signal a rising risk of recession." The report points out that the indicator measuring the monthly successful employment rate of the unemployed has been declining since mid-2023, a trend that closely resembles the trajectory before previous economic recessions. Meanwhile, the median duration of unemployment for job seekers has increased from about 8 weeks in mid-2022 to over 10 weeks currently, nearing the peak level of 10 weeks during the 2007-2009 financial crisis.

Trump's policies become the biggest variable! Atlanta Fed's Bostic emphasizes "now is not the time for bold actions." Atlanta Fed President Bostic stressed that officials must wait for further clarification on Trump's policies before adjusting interest rates. Bostic stated, "The ultimate direction of the economy depends critically on the specific details of the policies. Since we are still unclear about these (policies), this is another reason why I believe it is not prudent to take any bold actions on policy at this time." Several policymakers have indicated that they would like more time to observe how Trump's trade, immigration, and regulatory plans will impact the economy. Officials and economists have downgraded their expectations for economic growth this year and raised their inflation forecasts, citing the uncertainty surrounding Trump's policies. Bostic noted that the labor market is generally in line with the Fed's full employment goals, but there is still a long way to go to achieve the 2% inflation target. He reiterated that tariffs could delay the timeline for achieving this price target.

As trade tensions escalate, IEA significantly lowers global oil demand growth forecast for 2025. Due to escalating trade tensions, the International Energy Agency (IEA) significantly reduced its forecast for global oil demand growth this year on Tuesday. The agency cut its 2025 oil demand growth forecast by 300,000 barrels per day to 730,000 barrels per day. It also expects global oil demand growth to further slow to 690,000 barrels per day in 2026. In its monthly report, the IEA stated, "As trade tensions suddenly escalated sharply in early April, the global economic outlook continued to deteriorate, prompting us to lower our forecast for oil demand growth this year." Notably, OPEC also took similar measures a day earlier but was more optimistic compared to the IEA. OPEC lowered its 2025 global oil demand growth forecast from 1.45 million barrels per day to 1.3 million barrels per day and its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast from 1.43 million barrels per day to 1.28 million barrels per day OPEC stated in its monthly oil market report that this adjustment is mainly based on data from the first quarter of this year and the expected impact of the recent tariff policies announced by the United States on oil demand.

Individual Stock News

Surge in stock trading business, Bank of America (BAC.US) Q1 profit exceeds expectations. The financial report shows that Bank of America's Q1 revenue increased by 6% year-on-year to $27.4 billion, higher than the market expectation of $27 billion; net profit increased by 10% year-on-year to $7.4 billion, exceeding the market expectation of $6.3 billion; diluted earnings per share were $0.90, higher than the market expectation of $0.82. Net interest income, the bank's main source of revenue, grew by 2.9% to $14.4 billion. Analysts had previously expected net interest income to grow by 2.3%. Additionally, data shows that Bank of America's Q1 stock trading revenue increased by 17% to $2.18 billion, helping earnings per share exceed market expectations. Fixed income, foreign exchange, and commodity trading revenue were close to expectations, reaching $3.46 billion. As of the time of publication, on Tuesday before the US stock market opened, Bank of America rose nearly 2%.

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ.US) Q1 performance exceeds expectations, raises full-year sales guidance. The financial report shows that Johnson & Johnson's Q1 sales increased by 2.4% year-on-year to $21.89 billion, better than the market expectation of $21.58 billion; adjusted earnings per share were $2.77, better than the market expectation of $2.60. Johnson & Johnson also raised its full-year performance guidance for 2025 to reflect its completion of the acquisition of drug developer Intra-Cellular Therapies and the inclusion of the schizophrenia and depression treatment drug Caplyta in its product portfolio. The company expects full-year operational sales to be $92 billion, higher than the previous estimate of $91.3 billion.

Ericsson (ERIC.US) Q1 performance exceeds expectations, 5G equipment demand boosts profits but tariff concerns emerge. Swedish telecom giant Ericsson's financial report shows that its Q1 profit performance far exceeded market expectations, driven by global mobile operators increasing their procurement of 5G equipment. However, the company also warned that tariff policies may put pressure on its business in the second half of the year. The company's adjusted EBIT for the first quarter reached 6.21 billion Swedish Krona (approximately $636 million), significantly surpassing the average analyst expectation of 5 billion Swedish Krona; the adjusted gross margin rose to 48.5%, also higher than the analyst expectation of 45.9%. The company pointed out that it expects tariff policies to have an adverse impact of about 1 percentage point on its network business, while predicting that the adjusted gross margin for the second quarter will remain in the range of 48% to 50%.

The US government's "antitrust hammer" looms over Meta (META.US)! "Century trial" pressures the breakup of Instagram. The US Federal Trade Commission (FTC) is trying to prove that Meta built a monopoly position in the social networking platform through the acquisition of Instagram. On Monday afternoon local time, Zuckerberg underwent more than three hours of questioning by the FTC and will continue to testify on Tuesday. This antitrust case against Meta Platforms, initiated by the US government, is considered a "century trial" aimed at demanding the dissolution of this significant acquisition deal that occurred years ago and the separation of Instagram and WhatsApp For the first time! Japan takes action against tech giants: Orders Google (GOOGL.US) to stop monopolistic behavior. Just before trade negotiations with the United States this week, Japan's Fair Trade Commission ordered Google, a subsidiary of Alphabet, to stop requiring local smartphone manufacturers to preload its search service app and to prohibit the installation of competing search services. Japanese regulators stated that Google's actions violated Japan's Antimonopoly Act and ordered Google to correct its practices. This is the first administrative order Japan has issued against a tech giant. This news was announced before Economic Revitalization Minister Akizumi Yoshihiko's planned visit to the United States this week, where he intends to urge President Trump to delay tariffs on Japanese products. Although the U.S. has a trade deficit with Japan in goods, it has a surplus in services, including licensing fees for the Android app ecosystem and advertising revenue. Last year, the U.S. exported over $45 billion in seasonally adjusted services to Japan.

Dupixent patent expiration may lead to a "gap," Sanofi's (SNY.US) next-generation asthma drug clinical trial results are disappointing. Sanofi's next-generation experimental asthma drug, amlitelimab, failed to significantly reduce the frequency of asthma attacks in trials involving moderate to severe asthma patients, casting a shadow over the drug's prospects and making it difficult to compensate for the losses caused by the patent expiration of Sanofi's blockbuster drug Dupixent. The French pharmaceutical company stated that amlitelimab did not meet the primary endpoint of reducing asthma attacks in the mid-stage clinical trial at the highest dose; at lower doses, it only showed "marginal effects." Nevertheless, due to clinically significant improvements in lung function and asthma control in specific patient subgroups, as well as a significant reduction in asthma attacks, Sanofi still plans to continue testing the drug in later-stage clinical trials. As of the time of publication, Sanofi's stock fell over 1% in pre-market trading on Tuesday.

Important Economic Data and Event Forecast

Beijing time 20:30 U.S. April New York Fed Manufacturing Index

Beijing time the next day 00:00 2026 FOMC voter, Cleveland Fed President Mester participates in a Q&A session

Earnings Forecast

Wednesday morning: Interactive Brokers (IBKR.US), United Airlines (UAL.US)

Wednesday pre-market: ASML (ASML.US), Abbott (ABT.US)