American companies lack confidence, and a recession is not far off
The CEO confidence index of American companies has fallen to its lowest level since the 2008 financial crisis. The Morgan Stanley report indicates that its changes are significantly related to economic recession. In October 2007, the CEO confidence index first fell below 5, and three months later, the U.S. economy officially entered a recession. Before April 2, 2025, the CEO confidence index has declined again, showing that corporate executives' concerns about the economic outlook have intensified
As shown in the figure, the CEO Index of American companies has fallen to its lowest level since the 2008 financial crisis.
Morgan Stanley's report points out that changes in the CEO Confidence Index have a significant correlation with economic recessions. For example:
2007: In October 2007, the CEO Confidence Index in the United States first fell below 5 and remained below 5 for the following three months. According to the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), the U.S. economy officially entered a recession in December 2007. This suggests that the decline in the CEO Confidence Index may be an early warning signal of an economic recession.
2025: The report mentions that the CEO Confidence Index had already begun to decline before April 2, 2025. This is similar to the situation in 2007, indicating increased concerns among corporate executives about the current economic outlook.
