U.S. Stock Market Outlook | Star Tech Stocks Rise Before Market Open, Dollar Falls for Five Consecutive Days

Pre-Market Market Trends

1. As of April 14 (Monday), U.S. stock index futures are all up before the market opens. As of the time of writing, Dow futures are up 0.71%, S&P 500 futures are up 1.04%, and Nasdaq futures are up 1.33%. Star tech stocks are broadly rising before the market opens.

1. As of the time of writing, the German DAX index is up 2.26%, the UK FTSE 100 index is up 1.66%, the French CAC 40 index is up 2.04%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 index is up 2.10%.

1. As of the time of writing, WTI crude oil is up 1.24%, priced at $62.26 per barrel. Brent crude oil is up 1.14%, priced at $65.50 per barrel.

Market News

This Week's Financial Outlook: U.S. Earnings Season Kicks Off Amid Tariff Clouds, Major Retail Data on the Way. In the coming week, any new developments regarding tariffs will continue to be a market focus. Given the uncertainty surrounding the final direction of U.S. tariff policy, Wall Street strategists believe that recent developments indicate that tariff uncertainty will remain a key driver of market trends in the coming weeks. Additionally, the quarterly financial reports of numerous U.S. companies will be a focal point for investors. Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, Citigroup, Johnson & Johnson, TSMC, and Netflix are all expected to release their latest performance updates. Last week, some companies began to announce their first-quarter earnings, with uncertainty becoming the core message conveyed by these companies. Strategists expect this situation to persist as more earnings reports are released this week. In terms of economic data, investors will closely watch the March retail sales data update scheduled for release on Wednesday. The market currently expects U.S. retail sales in March to grow by 1.4% month-on-month, while core retail sales are expected to grow by 0.4% month-on-month.

After Facing a Sell-off Storm, JP Morgan Sends a "Calming Pill": U.S. Treasuries May Have Hit Bottom. U.S. Treasuries experienced their largest drop since 2001 last week, due to Trump's comprehensive tariffs and the unpredictability of policies undermining demand for this long-term safe-haven asset during financial turmoil. JP Morgan Asset Management stated that there are signs of strong foreign demand, and the market expects the Federal Reserve to support U.S. government debt if necessary, suggesting that U.S. Treasuries may have hit bottom. The company's global fixed income head, Bob Michele, cited Federal Reserve data showing that foreign central banks and reserve management institutions have recently increased their holdings of U.S. Treasuries. He also noted that Boston Fed President Susan Collins recently commented that the Fed is "absolutely prepared" to help stabilize financial markets if conditions become chaotic The decline of the US dollar is hard to stop! It has fallen for five consecutive days, hitting a new low since 2025. During the Asian trading session on Monday, the US dollar index fell for five consecutive trading days. As of the time of writing, the US dollar index is down 0.64%, at 99.46. The Trump administration's tariff policy towards the world continues to severely undermine global investors' long-term confidence in holding US dollar assets, leading them to continuously sell off US dollars, US stocks, and US bonds. The US financial market has faced a "triple whammy" of stocks, bonds, and exchange rates since last week. The Trump administration announced over the weekend a suspension of import tariffs on certain consumer electronics, which briefly raised market expectations for potential flexibility in the trade war. However, as Trump promised to impose "specific import tariffs" on the consumer electronics industry and initiated a national security investigation into chip products, this optimism quickly faded.

Kashkari: The Federal Reserve does not provide a safety net for the trade war, only focuses on "controlling inflation." Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Kashkari recently expressed his views on current economic policies and market conditions. He pointed out that although the Trump administration's trade policies continue to adjust, investors are gradually adapting to this new normal, and the market has formed rational expectations for future directions. He is confident that the market will remain orderly as it digests Trump's constantly changing trade policies. Kashkari emphasized that the core mission of the Federal Reserve is to anchor inflation expectations and prevent tariff policies from transmitting inflationary pressures to long-term interest rates. Kashkari stated, "The Federal Reserve's responsibility is to control inflation, not to directly intervene in trade policies." He stressed that global investors are recalibrating their understanding of the "new normal" in the US, and the Federal Reserve has "no direct intervention tools" for such structural adjustments. He further explained, "What we can do is ensure that inflation expectations do not get out of control while smoothing out market volatility during the policy adjustment process." It is worth noting that there is a consensus within the Federal Reserve on responding to tariff shocks—multiple officials have clearly stated that they will not use interest rate cuts as an "insurance tool" against trade risks. Several Federal Reserve officials will speak intensively this week, and their latest statements will be closely monitored by the market.

Citigroup: Downgrades S&P 500 target to 5800 points, but 4700 points is a good opportunity to increase positions. Citigroup recently released a research report on US stock investment strategies, lowering its year-end target for the S&P 500 index in 2025 from 6500 points to 5800 points, and reducing the annual earnings per share expectation for the index from $270 to $255. This adjustment is mainly based on the uncertainty of tariff policies and recent signs of macroeconomic slowdown. Due to policy uncertainty, Citigroup believes that a compression in valuations is reasonable. Citigroup stated that the market had hoped for a "Goldilocks" scenario as it entered 2025, but this sentiment has now given way to frustrating uncertainty, as the tariff measures announced by the Trump administration will disrupt the global trading system. Citigroup believes that the deterioration of the macroeconomy has adversely affected the earnings prospects of S&P 500 constituent companies, and small-cap stocks may continue to face pressure. However, the significant decline in US stocks after "Liberation Day" indicates that the market has digested most of the negative impacts of tariffs. Citigroup believes that the current market adjustment provides a good opportunity for long-term positioning in quality companies and recommends that investors increase positions when the S&P 500 index approaches 4700 points Goldman Sachs warns: S&P 500 approaches target of 5300, severe fluctuations will become the new normal for the market. David Kostin, Chief U.S. Equity Strategist at Goldman Sachs, stated that although the S&P 500 index is approaching the bank's three-month target of 5300 points, recent downward risks are accumulating. In a client report, he listed the rising risk of economic recession, increasing volatility, and deteriorating market liquidity as the three key challenges currently facing the market. Kostin warned, "If the economic or policy outlook improves, the current light positioning of investors may provide further upside for the market, but the market has not yet fully absorbed the impact of rising recession risks." Kostin particularly emphasized that the deterioration of stock market liquidity has formed a negative feedback loop with volatility, stating, "A sudden liquidity drought typically leads to more severe price fluctuations." Kostin concluded that although the S&P 500 index is still close to the target, investors need to remain cautious in the current environment of extreme volatility, policy uncertainty, and weak liquidity.

Gold price to rise to $4000? Gold surges too rapidly, Goldman Sachs and UBS hurriedly raise forecasts again. After gold prices broke through $3200 and repeatedly hit new highs, Goldman Sachs and UBS hurriedly "ripped up their reports" to further raise their bullish outlook on gold prices: the reason is that central bank demand is stronger than expected, and gold serves as a hedge against economic recession and geopolitical risks, supporting expectations that gold prices will rise further by 2025. Analysts at Goldman Sachs, including Lina Thomas, currently expect gold prices to rise to $3700 per ounce by the end of this year and reach $4000 per ounce by mid-2026; meanwhile, UBS strategist Joni Teves pointed out that gold prices will reach $3500 per ounce by December 2025. As of the time of writing, gold futures hovered above $3240 per ounce, having touched a new high earlier in the day.

Goldman Sachs becomes the "big short" on crude oil: "Supply surplus" will persist long-term, predicting WTI crude oil to drop to $55 in 2026. Goldman Sachs has once again lowered its expectations for international oil prices, primarily based on the ongoing expectation of a "supply surplus" in the crude oil market this year and the global demand growth for crude oil being much weaker than previously expected under the "tariff storm" led by the Trump administration. The bank currently expects the average price of Brent crude oil for the remainder of 2025 to be $63 per barrel, while the average price of WTI crude oil is expected to be $59 per barrel. Goldman Sachs has further lowered its oil price forecasts for 2026, significantly reducing the average price of Brent crude oil to $58 per barrel, while the average price of WTI crude oil is expected to drop to just $55 per barrel.

Individual Stock News

Star tech stocks rise before the market opens. On the evening of April 11 local time, the U.S. Customs and Border Protection announced that the federal government has agreed to exempt electronic products such as smartphones, computers, and chips from so-called "reciprocal tariffs." Analysts pointed out that this measure may alleviate the price pressure faced by U.S. consumers to some extent, while also providing relief to tech giants including Apple (AAPL.US) and NVIDIA (NVDA.US). As of the time of writing, before the U.S. stock market opened on Monday, Apple and Micron Technology (MU.US) rose over 5%, AMD (AMD.US) rose over 4%, and NVIDIA and Intel (INTC.US) rose nearly 3%, Broadcom (AVGO.US), Qualcomm (QCOM.US) and Tesla (TSLA.US) rose nearly 2%.

Trading business performed well, Goldman Sachs (GS.US) Q1 revenue and EPS exceeded expectations. Data shows that Goldman Sachs' Q1 net revenue increased by 6% year-on-year to $15.06 billion, better than the market expectation of $14.76 billion; earnings per share were $14.12, surpassing the market expectation of $12.33. The sales and trading business performed strongly in Q1, with traders making large bets on opportunities created by market volatility. Equity business revenue grew by 27% year-on-year to $4.2 billion; fixed income, currency, and commodities (FICC) revenue grew by only 2% year-on-year to $4.4 billion; investment banking performance was relatively weak, with investment banking fees down 8% year-on-year and advisory revenue down 22% year-on-year. Additionally, Goldman Sachs' board approved a stock repurchase plan of up to $40 billion.

TSMC (TSM.US) Q1 net profit may surge 54%, Trump’s tariffs become the biggest concern. TSMC is set to announce its earnings report on Thursday, with expected first-quarter profits surging 54%, but analysts warn that the company may face risks from U.S. President Trump's trade policies. According to SmartEstimate data from 17 analysts, TSMC's net profit for the quarter ending March 31 is expected to reach NT$347.8 billion (approximately $10.74 billion). This forecast model places more emphasis on valuations from analysts with historically high prediction accuracy. This figure represents a significant increase from NT$225.5 billion in the same period of 2024. The world's largest chip foundry—whose clients include Apple and NVIDIA—benefits from the trend of AI functionality becoming mainstream in online products. However, the company faces dual challenges: dealing with the impact of Trump's import tariff policies and addressing criticisms of its dominance in the semiconductor industry in Taiwan.

Trump voices opposition again, Nippon Steel's acquisition of U.S. Steel (X.US) may fall through. Trump reiterated last Sunday that he believes foreign companies should not control U.S. Steel (X.US), making Nippon Steel's hopes of acquiring U.S. Steel for $15 billion dim. Trump stated last Wednesday that he does not want to see U.S. Steel acquired by Japan, causing the company's stock price to drop by 7%. Subsequently, both companies stated that they are working closely with the Trump administration to "ensure a significant investment."

Intel (INTC.US) may officially announce this week, Altera sale to Silver Lake imminent. Intel is nearing an agreement with Silver Lake Partners to sell its programmable chip division. The struggling U.S. company has begun to divest non-core businesses and assets. According to insiders, Intel may announce the sale of Altera to this private equity firm as early as this week. Previously reported, both parties have been finalizing an agreement that includes Intel selling a majority stake in the division. However, insiders say that despite progress in negotiations, the agreement may still be delayed or fall through. Market volatility triggered by White House tariff statements has led many traders to pause trading

Important Economic Data and Event Forecast

Beijing time 23:00 US March New York Fed 1-year inflation expectations

Beijing time the next day 00:00 2027 FOMC voting member, Richmond Fed President Barkin will give a speech on "Navigating the Economic Fog"

Beijing time the next day 06:00 2026 FOMC voting member, Philadelphia Fed President Harker will give a speech on the role of the Federal Reserve

Earnings Forecast

Tuesday pre-market: Ericsson (ERIC.US), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ.US), Bank of America (BAC.US), Citigroup (C.US)