Federal Reserve official: This is the biggest confidence shock I can remember in my ten years at the Federal Reserve, aside from the outbreak of the pandemic in 2020

Affected by tariff shocks, the University of Michigan's Consumer Confidence Index in the U.S. plummeted in April. A senior official from the Federal Reserve stated that this is the largest confidence blow since the outbreak of the pandemic in 2020, and indicated that a swift resolution to the tariff issues would help alleviate concerns about an economic recession.

On April 13 local time, Neel Kashkari, a voting member of the FOMC in 2026 and President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, warned in an interview with CBS News that the uncertainty caused by the trade war has severely impacted consumer confidence. Kashkari stated:

"This is the most severe confidence blow I have seen in my ten years at the Fed, aside from the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic in March 2020.

When confidence is hit so hard, it can have a huge impact on the economy."

Wall Street Journal previously mentioned that the University of Michigan's Consumer Confidence Index in April plummeted to its lowest level since June 2022, which is also the second-lowest value in the history of this survey since 1952. Joanne Hsu, director of the consumer survey at the University of Michigan, stated that consumers reported multiple warning signals that heightened the risk of an economic recession.

Kashkari also emphasized that the decline in consumer confidence is particularly concerning. Such a shift in sentiment is often a leading indicator of a deteriorating economic outlook, which could have a ripple effect on the stock market, bond market, and real estate.

This is a very serious situation

When CBS News host Margaret Brennan asked, "JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon stated that the probability of a recession is 50%, while Goldman Sachs estimates it at 45%. Do you think the risks are that high?" Kashkari replied:

"It really depends on whether the (trade) issues can be resolved quickly. The faster they are resolved, the quicker I believe confidence can be restored, and hopefully these (recession) probabilities can decrease."

Kashkari warned, "This is a very serious situation, and the situation is very unstable." He further explained:

Even without considering the impact of tariffs themselves, if businesses and consumers become anxious and reduce spending due to uncertainty, it could also lead to an economic recession.

He added, "There are many issues that need to be resolved right now, and we are doing our utmost to manage the situation."