Apple's iPhone Stockpile Could Disrupt Supply Chain Amid Looming Chip Tariffs, Warns Top Analyst — Identifies Cupertino's Best Option Beyond White House Talks

Apple Inc. AAPL may have avoided the worst of Donald Trump's new reciprocal tariffs—for now—but top analyst Ming-Chi Kuo warns that the company's supply chain could still face major disruptions in the months ahead.

What Happened: Apple has temporarily dodged steep tariffs on Chinese-made electronics, including iPhones, iPads, Macs, Apple Watches, and AirTags, following an exemption granted by Trump late Friday.

However, TF International Securities analyst Kuo says this relief may be short-lived, and Apple's response could create new challenges.

In a post on X, Kuo noted that Apple began stockpiling U.S.-bound iPhones after the Lunar New Year, which fell in late January, building up more than two months of inventory in anticipation of trade volatility.

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While this move helps protect second-quarter sales, he warned it may lead to "a sharper disruption to the supply chain during the model transition compared to prior years."

He went on to add that production lines in China that assemble iPhones for the U.S. market remain idle, reinforcing Apple's plan to shift more of its iPhone manufacturing to India. However, he cautioned that the plan is "subject to change and should be closely monitored."

Kuo also flagged multiple trade risks still on the table, including a potential 20% semiconductor tariff and executive orders tied to reciprocal tariffs.

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Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick confirmed over the weekend that current tariff exemptions for electronics are only temporary and that additional levies—possibly impacting iPhones—could be introduced within months.

“Amid the Trump administration's unpredictable tariff policies, Apple's best option—beyond ongoing talks with the White House for exemptions—is to establish sufficient iPhone production lines in India to meet U.S. market demand,” Kuo stated.

Why It Matters: Despite Apple's efforts to diversify its supply chain away from China, nearly 80% of the 77 million iPhones shipped to the U.S. last year were still manufactured there.

Earlier this month, ahead of Trump's new tariffs taking effect, Apple reportedly exported 600 tons of iPhones — about 1.5 million units — from India to the U.S.

Amit Daryanani, an analyst at Evercore ISI, voiced relief for Apple in a Saturday note, saying, "The tariffs would have driven material cost inflation."

Previously, Bank of America analyst Wamsi Mohan warned that Apple could see iPhone production costs surge by over 90% if U.S. assembly requirements and tariffs are implemented.

Price Action: Year-to-date, Apple shares have dropped 18.74%, though they've gained 14.74% over the past 12 months, according to Benzinga Pro data.

Benzinga Edge's Stock Rankings give Apple a growth score of 45.05%. Curious how it stacks up against other stocks? Click here for the full breakdown.

Image via Shutterstock

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Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.