The earnings season for U.S. stocks has begun, and this time the important thing "may not be the earnings report itself."

The earnings season for U.S. stocks has begun, and management's forecasts for the future are crucial.

Against the backdrop of a volatile global trade situation, as the U.S. earnings season arrives, investors are closely watching company management's outlook for the future and warnings of potential declines.

On the 11th local time, the U.S. earnings season kicked off, with BlackRock, JPMorgan Chase, Morgan Stanley, and Wells Fargo sequentially announcing their Q1 2025 earnings reports. Among them, both JPMorgan Chase and Morgan Stanley's revenue and profit figures exceeded analysts' expectations; BlackRock and Wells Fargo's Q1 earnings per share also surpassed analysts' expectations, with BlackRock's revenue in line with expectations, while Wells Fargo's revenue appeared somewhat weak.

These financial figures reflect the impact of the market crash caused by tariff shocks after U.S. stocks hit record highs in mid-February, but have not fully captured the frenzy of selling that followed the formal announcement of tariff policies on April 2.

Earnings Reports Are Just Footnotes; Management Commentary Is Key

During a time when unprecedented tariff shadows loom over the market, investors' focus on forward guidance far exceeds that of past quarters' financial data. Some believe that a 90-day tariff suspension may give companies some breathing room, temporarily delaying earnings revisions, and hoping for a future agreement.

However, it currently appears that corporate management's statements are more indicative of ongoing concerns—policy volatility is damaging growth and business prospects.

BlackRock CEO Larry Fink reiterated in a media interview on Friday that most CEOs believe the U.S. is in a recession, and corporate capital expenditures are declining.

JPMorgan Chase pointed out a surprising phenomenon: consumer spending remains strong, even among low-income groups—but this data may be misleading, as Americans may have increased spending in anticipation of inflation caused by tariffs. Their corporate clients, especially small businesses, are taking a wait-and-see approach, as few feel capable of making long-term decisions at present.

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon stated that the most important thing is to reach a trade agreement as soon as possible.

Wells Fargo's management stated during a conference call that although overall consumer spending remains stable, low-income consumers are feeling increased pressure. Bank CEO Charles Scharf said:

“We expect the economic environment in 2025 to remain turbulent, uncertain, and potentially slow, but the actual outcome will depend on the results and timing of policy changes.”

Morgan Stanley noted that trade tensions and a weak IPO market further suppressed merger and acquisition activity and affected the company's IPO and advisory business. If subsequent tariffs push up yields, it will increase borrowing costs and reduce corporate confidence.

In fact, the consensus expectation for earnings per share of the S&P 500 this year is $267, achieving a double-digit year-on-year growth rate, but this figure seems overly optimistic, as even mild tariffs can impact economic growth.

Some analysts pointed out that companies may not lower their full-year financial expectations this quarter, but if a tariff agreement is not reached and a clear solution is not obtained within the next 90 days, it may just be a matter of time.**

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