Breakfast | The U.S. exempts some products from reciprocal tariffs, Goldman Sachs: remains bearish on U.S. stocks in the short term

Market Review Overview

On Friday, senior officials from the Federal Reserve hinted at possible actions, leading to a rebound in U.S. stocks. The S&P 500 rose 5.7% for the week, marking its largest weekly gain of 2023, while the Nasdaq gained over 7% for the week. Apple closed up over 4%, and Nvidia rose nearly 18% for the week; after its earnings report, JP Morgan rose 4%.

In response to targeted measures from China, Texas Instruments fell nearly 6%. The China concept index rose nearly 2%, with Alibaba up over 3%.

In a week of tariff storms, U.S. Treasuries and the dollar plummeted, while gold reached new highs repeatedly.

In early Asian trading, U.S. stock index futures opened higher, while gold prices fell. S&P 500 futures rose 0.5%, Nasdaq futures rose 1.25%, and Dow futures rose 0.83%.

China's March export year-on-year growth rate expected to accelerate to 4.4%, tariff gloom promotes "export rush" to continue

China will release its March trade data on Monday. A Reuters poll of 19 institutions shows that expectations of increased tariffs on the U.S. are prompting companies to continue short-term export rushes, combined with the impact of a low base, leading to an expected acceleration in China's year-on-year export growth rate in March to 4.4% in dollar terms; imports are expected to be weak, with a year-on-year decline of 2%; the trade surplus for the month is expected to be $77 billion.

U.S. exempts some products from "reciprocal tariffs," including chips, laptops, and smartphones

According to guidelines from U.S. Customs, smartphones and computers will not be affected by the "reciprocal tariff" policy of the Trump administration.

The new tariff guidelines also include exemptions for other electronic devices and components, including semiconductors, solar cells, flat-screen TV displays, flash drives, memory cards, and solid-state drives used for data storage. Reports indicate that this tariff exemption applies to all countries affected by Trump's so-called "reciprocal tariffs."

Some analysts believe that one of Trump's goals in wielding the "tariff stick" is to bring U.S. manufacturing back. However, Wall Street is not optimistic about this; a recent report from Bank of America warns that if Apple moves all iPhone production to the U.S., costs will soar by 90%, facing logistical challenges.

Additionally, Dan Ives, a senior analyst at Wedbush Securities who is long-term bullish on U.S. tech stocks, stated in a podcast that these tariffs could set back the U.S. tech industry by a decade. He also predicted that 15% to 20% of capital expenditures in the U.S. tech sector have already been automatically paused.

U.S. Trade Representative's Office indicates possible tariffs on electronics after investigation

U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer stated on Sunday that while the electronic products exempted by President Donald Trump are no longer subject to reciprocal tariffs, they will still be subject to tariffs, just classified under different categories.

These products have been moved from reciprocal tariffs to a national security tariff regime, which requires investigation before tariffs are imposed, and "we are conducting research on pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, metals, etc.," he said in an interview with CBS's "Face the Nation."

U.S. exempts some products from reciprocal tariffs, China's Ministry of Commerce urges a "big step" in correcting errors

Regarding the U.S. exemption of certain products from reciprocal tariffs, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce stated that this is a small step in correcting the unilateral error of reciprocal tariffs and urged the U.S. to "take a big step" in correcting its mistakes by completely abolishing the erroneous practice of "reciprocal tariffs."

"China's position on Sino-U.S. economic and trade relations has been consistent," the Ministry of Commerce's official website stated in response to reporters on Sunday. "There are no winners in a trade war, and protectionism has no way out. There is an old Chinese saying, 'To untie the bell, one must find the bell ringer.'"

The U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) released a list of goods, indicating that the U.S. has excluded certain electronic products, such as smartphones and computers, from President Trump's reciprocal tariff list.

The Sino-U.S. tariff war has entered a heated phase. Recently, the U.S. president has intensified tariffs on Chinese goods, and when accounting for tariffs imposed earlier this year, the effective tariff rate on China has actually increased to 145%. China, on the other hand, further raised the tariff rate on U.S. goods from 84% to 125% on Friday.

Fewer Buyers, Significant Deterioration in U.S. Treasury Liquidity Last Week

The large-scale sell-off of U.S. Treasuries indicates that market confidence in dollar assets is collapsing, with the volatility index for U.S. Treasuries reaching its highest level since October 2023. JPMorgan stated that market depth (an indicator measuring the market's ability to absorb large trades without significant price changes) significantly deteriorated last week, meaning even small trades could have a substantial impact on yields.

U.S. Consumer Confidence Drops to Lowest Level in Nearly Three Years in April; Inflation Expectations Surge to Highest Since 1981

U.S. consumer confidence sharply deteriorated in April, with one-year inflation expectations soaring to the highest level since 1981. Concerns over escalating trade tensions have disrupted financial markets and increased the risk of economic recession. The University of Michigan's consumer survey showed that the consumer confidence index fell to 50.8, the lowest since June 2022, with an estimate of 54.5. One-year inflation expectations rose to 6.7%, marking a continuous increase of 0.5 percentage points or more for four consecutive months. Five-year inflation expectations reached 4.4%, the highest since June 1991.

Additional data showed that the final demand Producer Price Index (PPI) for March fell by 0.4% month-on-month, marking the first decline since October 2023, with an estimate of a 0.2% increase. The year-on-year increase in March PPI dropped to 2.7%.

Following the data release, the interest rate futures market reduced the probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in June to about 75% and anticipated a total of three rate cuts this year, with reduced bets on a fourth cut.

Federal Reserve's Williams States Tariffs Will Raise Inflation and Unemployment Rates, Real GDP Growth Expected to Be Below 1%

New York Fed President Williams stated that the current trade policies of the Trump administration will lead to accelerated inflation this year and emphasized that the Federal Reserve must be cautious of the long-term price pressure expectations of the public losing their anchor. He stated that tariffs are expected to push inflation rates this year to between 3.5% and 4%. "Considering the slowdown in labor growth due to reduced immigration, along with the combined effects of uncertainty and tariffs, I now expect real GDP growth to slow significantly compared to last year's pace, slightly below 1%, while the unemployment rate is expected to rise from the current 4.2% to between 4.5% and 5%." Boston Federal Reserve President Collins stated that despite the immense pressure on financial markets, they appear to be maintaining stable operations.

Musk recommends reading "1493," hinting at economic globalization again

Elon Musk posted on social media recommending the book "1493." The book explores the global impact of Columbus's voyages, particularly focusing on the "Columbian Exchange." It details how plants, animals, diseases, and ideas spread across continents, ultimately shaping modern globalization. The book illustrates how these exchanges, which began in 1493, created today's interconnected world and had lasting effects on culture and the environment.

BlackRock CEO: The U.S. may already be in recession, tariffs "exceed anything I could have imagined in my 49-year financial career"

BlackRock CEO Larry Fink warned that the U.S. economy may be on the brink of recession, as concerns about an economic slowdown have surged since Trump significantly raised tariffs, leading to a sharp decline in U.S. stocks. Trump postponed some tariffs for 90 days, which instead implies a longer duration and higher degree of uncertainty, making it difficult to boost market confidence. He emphasized that the U.S. is not in a financial crisis, and long-term trends such as artificial intelligence will continue.

Goldman Sachs remains bearish on U.S. stocks in the short term

Goldman Sachs believes that the "high volatility and low liquidity" negative feedback loop and recession risks are underestimated. The current weekly volatility of the S&P 500 index has risen to its highest level since 2020, while market liquidity has sharply declined over the past month, approaching dangerous territory. The market may be overly optimistic and overlooking the possibility of an economic recession.

Goldman Sachs raises gold price forecast again, year-end target price of $3,700

In extreme scenarios, if the market focuses on the risks of Federal Reserve independence or changes in U.S. reserve policy, central bank demand could continue to rise to 110 tons/month, and a U.S. recession could lead ETF holdings to rebound to pandemic levels. Goldman Sachs believes that gold could even reach $4,500.

Kremlin states that relations with the U.S. are progressing very well

The Kremlin stated that relations with the U.S. are progressing very smoothly but also warned that the damage caused by the previous U.S. administration to relations with Moscow is severe.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told Pavel Zarubin, a reporter for Russian state television: "Everything is progressing very smoothly. In fact, reviving relations from scratch is a very difficult task that requires very intensive diplomatic and other efforts."

Iran and the U.S. held "positive" talks in Oman, agreeing to meet again next week

Iran and the U.S. stated that they held "positive" and "constructive" talks in Oman on Saturday and agreed to meet again next week. The dialogue aims to address Tehran's escalating nuclear program. Iranian Foreign Minister Amir-Abdollahian said: "I believe we are very close to the basis for negotiations, and if we can reach this basis next week, we will make significant progress and be able to start real discussions on this basis." Amir-Abdollahian noted that the talks were conducted in a "productive, calm, and positive atmosphere," and both Iran and the U.S. hope to reach an agreement in the short term The White House stated that the talks were very positive and constructive.

"Insider Trading" is very prevalent in this White House

Another "big shot" has positioned themselves ahead of the news on electronic product exemptions, going long on US stocks and Apple shares before the information spread.

Some overseas netizens have revealed trading information, showing that two minutes before the market closed on Friday, someone bought $850,000 worth of 554 call options on $SPY, which will expire on Monday. Meanwhile, there were also large orders for Apple options on Friday, with a "big shot" pouring $4 million into going long on Apple options.

On the evening of the 11th, the U.S. Customs and Border Protection announced that the federal government has agreed to exempt smartphones, computers, chips, and other electronic products from the so-called "reciprocal tariffs."