The Federal Reserve hints at possible action, U.S. stocks rebound, Nasdaq rises over 7% in a week, tariff storm leads to a sharp decline in U.S. Treasury bonds and the dollar, while gold hits new highs repeatedly

The tide of overseas funds fleeing U.S. assets temporarily eased during Friday's trading session. The University of Michigan's survey indicated further deterioration in U.S. consumer confidence and soaring inflation expectations, leading to a continuation of the decline in U.S. stocks from Thursday's session. However, the subsequent tariff developments garnered more market attention, and the prospect of a Fed Put from the Federal Reserve temporarily boosted investor sentiment. The major U.S. stock indices halted their decline and turned upward, accelerating their rebound by midday.

During the midday session of U.S. stocks, according to CCTV News, the U.S. Customs reported a malfunction in the tariff system, and tariffs have not yet been imposed. Additionally, Collins, a Federal Reserve official with voting rights this year, stated that the Federal Reserve is "absolutely" ready to help stabilize the market if needed. The three major U.S. stock indices expanded their gains to over 1% by midday, with the Nasdaq rising more than 2% by the end of the session.

Due to Trump's unexpected announcement to postpone tariffs on Wednesday, the market surged that day, and combined with Friday's intraday reversal, the three major U.S. stock indices achieved their best performance in over a year this week. However, amidst the storm of tariffs and countermeasures this week, U.S. Treasuries and the dollar became the casualties of the sell-off in U.S. assets. Long-term U.S. Treasury yields surged this week, with the benchmark 10-year Treasury posting its worst performance since 2001, and the dollar index recording its largest weekly decline in nearly two and a half years.

Safe-haven assets emerged as big winners this week, with the Swiss franc rising further to its highest level since 2015 on Friday. European investors sold off dollar assets and returned to the eurozone, with the euro's gains this week even surpassing those of the yen. Among commodities, gold surged due to the flight to safety, continuing to set historical highs on Friday, achieving the largest three-day gain since the initial outbreak; the U.S. Department of Energy lowered its demand forecast amid trade war threats to the economic outlook, and although crude oil rebounded on Friday, it still declined throughout the week.

Judging by Bloomberg's U.S. Treasury return index performance, the U.S. Treasury market experienced its largest weekly decline since the September 2019 repo crisis. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury rose by over 49 basis points this week, marking the largest single-week increase since 2001. The yield on the two-year U.S. Treasury rose by 30.80 basis points this week.

On Friday, technology stocks supported the rebound of U.S. stock indices, with Apple leading the Dow. U.S. solar energy led among various industry ETFs, while regional bank ETFs performed the worst. China introduced new regulations on chip origin certification, causing some chip stocks like Texas Instruments to continue to decline. Technology stocks performed excellently throughout the week, with the "Tech Seven Sisters" rising at least over 5%, and NVIDIA rising nearly 18%.

All three major U.S. stock indices posted cumulative gains this week:

• The S&P 500 index closed up 95.31 points, an increase of 1.81%, at 5363.36 points, with a cumulative increase of 5.70% this week, marking the best single-week performance since November 2023

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed up 619.05 points, an increase of 1.56%, at 40,212.71 points, with a cumulative increase of 4.95% this week.

• The Nasdaq Composite Index closed up 337.14 points, an increase of 2.06%, at 16,724.46 points, with a cumulative increase of 7.29% this week.

• The Russell 2000 Index closed up 1.57%, at 1,860.20 points, with a cumulative increase of 1.82% this week.

• The VIX (Volatility Index) closed down 7.78%, at 37.55, with a cumulative decrease of 17.13% this week.

U.S. photovoltaics lead among various industry ETFs:

• U.S. photovoltaics closed up 3.82%, the biotechnology index ETF closed up 3.38%, and the global technology stock index ETF, global airline industry ETF, semiconductor ETF, energy industry ETF, and technology sector ETF increased between 2.05% and 2.8%.

• The consumer discretionary ETF rose 0.97%, ranking third from the bottom, the banking sector ETF rose 0.32%, while the regional bank ETF closed down 0.28%.

"Tech Seven Sisters" all rebounded:

• The index of the seven tech giants in the U.S. (Magnificent 7) rose 2.40%, closing at 141.01 points, with a cumulative increase of 8.95% this week.

• Apple closed up 4.06%, NVIDIA rose 3.12%, Alphabet A rose 2.76%, Amazon rose 2.01%, Microsoft rose 1.86%, while Tesla closed down 0.06%, and Meta Platforms fell 0.50%.

• This week, NVIDIA rebounded a cumulative 17.62%, Amazon rebounded 8.11%, Microsoft rebounded 7.95%, Alphabet A rebounded 7.85%, Meta rebounded 7.70%, Tesla rose 5.38%, and Apple rebounded 5.19%.

Chip stocks:

• The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index closed up 2.51%, at 3,990.90 points, with a cumulative increase of 10.93% this week.

• AMD closed up 5.30%, TSMC ADR rose 3.94%, with an overall rebound of 7% this week; while Texas Instruments closed down nearly 5.8%, GlobalFoundries fell 1.4%, and Intel fell 0.7%.

AI concept stocks:

• Applovin closed down 6.8%. Tempus AI rose 4.54%.

Chinese concept stocks:

• The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index closed up 1.73%, at 6,515.76 points, with a cumulative decrease of 5.30% this week

• Popular Chinese concept stocks XPeng rose 11.4% initially, Nio rose 6.7%, NetEase and Baidu rose over 5%, Xiaomi ADR, Bilibili, and Li Auto rose over 4%, Alibaba rose 3.3%, and Tencent ADR rose 2.4%.

Among other key stocks:

• Berkshire Hathaway Class B shares, owned by Warren Buffett, rose 1.61%.

• JPMorgan Chase, which announced its first-quarter financial report, rose 4%, BlackRock rose 2.3%, and Wells Fargo fell nearly 1%.

• The "Trump Tariff Losers" index rose 0.31%, closing at 78.42 points, with a cumulative increase of 0.64% this week. Component stock Harley-Davidson rose 4.89%, Wayfair, 3M, and Hasbro rose over 2%.

Most European automotive manufacturing concept stocks rose, while the European STOXX 600 index fell over 1.9% this week, with the oil and gas sector down over 7.2% and the auto parts sector down about 4.1%.

Pan-European stock market:

• The European STOXX 600 index closed down 0.10%, at 486.80 points, with a cumulative decline of 1.92% this week.

• The Eurozone STOXX 50 index closed down 0.66%, at 4787.23 points, with a cumulative decline of 1.87% this week.

National stock indices cumulative declines this week:

• The German DAX 30 index closed down 0.92%, at 20374.10 points, with a cumulative decline of 1.30% this week.

• The French CAC 40 index closed down 0.30%, at 7104.80 points, with a cumulative decline of 2.34% this week.

• The UK FTSE 100 index closed up 0.64%, at 7964.18 points, with a cumulative decline of 1.13% this week.

• The Dutch AEX index closed up 0.04%, with a cumulative decline of 2.58% this week.

• The Italian FTSE MIB index closed down 0.73%, at 34027.83 points, with a cumulative decline of 1.79% this week.

• The Danish OMX Copenhagen 20 index closed up 1.59%, with a cumulative decline of 1.47% this week, and the Copenhagen 25 index closed up 0.75%, with a cumulative decline of 0.30% this week.

Sectors and individual stocks:

• The FTSE All-World 300 index closed down 0.15%, at 1935.13 points, with a cumulative decline of 2.04% this week.

• Most European automotive manufacturing concept stocks rose, with Valeo up 2.99%, and BMW, Porsche, Mercedes-Benz Group, and Michelin rising up to 1.94%

• The STOXX 600 Oil and Gas Index fell 7.22% this week, the Healthcare Index fell 4.53%, the Automotive and Parts Index fell 4.09%, and the Telecommunications Index fell 3.80%.

The yield on the US 10-year Treasury bond rose more than 49 basis points this week, marking the largest weekly increase since 2001. The yield on the two-year German bond fell about 4 basis points this week, briefly hitting a new low since 2022.

US Bonds:

• At the New York close, the yield on the 10-year benchmark US Treasury bond rose by 6.46 basis points to 4.4895%, with a cumulative increase of 49.52 basis points this week, trading in a range of 3.8693%-4.5864%.

• The yield on the two-year US Treasury bond rose by 9.59 basis points to 3.9599%, with a cumulative increase of 30.80 basis points this week, trading overall in a range of 3.4305%-4.0305%.

• This week, the yield on the 20-year US Treasury bond rose by 50.09 basis points, and the yield on the 30-year US Treasury bond rose by 46.13 basis points.

European Bonds:

• At the European close, the yield on the 10-year German Treasury bond fell by 0.9 basis points to 2.570%, with a cumulative decrease of 0.7 basis points this week, rebounding after falling to 2.430% on Monday and reaching 2.719% on Thursday.

• The yield on the two-year German bond rose by 0.3 basis points to 1.789%, with a cumulative decrease of 3.8 basis points this week, trading overall in a range of 1.919%-1.624%, hitting a new low since 2022 on Monday.

• The yield on the 10-year UK Treasury bond was reported at 4.753% at the European close, fluctuating upward from Monday to Wednesday, and experiencing narrow fluctuations at high levels from Thursday to Friday, with a cumulative increase of 30.6 basis points this week.

• The yield on the 10-year French Treasury bond was reported at 3.352% at the European close, with a cumulative increase of 1.9 basis points this week.

Unlike the supply chain crisis triggered by the pandemic, the US dollar index has lost its safe-haven status, with global investors fleeing dollar assets in a frenzy this week. The dollar index fell below the psychological level of 100 for the first time since July last year, dropping more than 2.9% this week, and marking the most severe two-week decline since November 2022, with exchange rates against other fiat currencies hitting the lowest level since October 2024.

Dollar falls below the 100 mark:

• At the New York close, the ICE Dollar Index fell by 0.86% to 99.998 points, with a cumulative decrease of 2.94% this week.

• The Bloomberg Dollar Index fell by 0.97% to 1234.24 points, with a cumulative decrease of 2.42% this week, trading overall in a range of 1272.61-1229.57 points.

Non-US Currencies:

• This week, the euro has risen 3.67% against the US dollar, closing at 1.1358 in New York on Friday (April 11).

• The British pound has increased 1.50% against the US dollar, closing at 1.3085.

• The US dollar has fallen 1.21% against the Swiss franc, closing at 0.8152, with a cumulative decline of 5.29% this week. The euro has risen 0.39% against the Swiss franc, closing at 0.92615, with a cumulative decline of 1.76% this week.

• Among commodity currencies, the Australian dollar has risen 4.11% against the US dollar, closing at 0.6288; the New Zealand dollar has risen 4.11% against the US dollar, closing at 0.5824; the US dollar has fallen 2.52% against the Canadian dollar, closing at 1.3866.

Japanese Yen:

• In New York's closing, the US dollar has fallen 0.70% against the Japanese yen, closing at 143.52 yen, with a cumulative decline of 2.31% this week.

• The euro has risen 0.75% against the Japanese yen, closing at 163.04 yen, with a cumulative increase of 1.31%; the British pound has risen 0.25% against the Japanese yen, closing at 187.811 yen, with a cumulative decline of 0.73%.

Offshore Renminbi:

• In New York's closing, the offshore renminbi (CNH) has closed at 7.2875 against the US dollar, up 219 points from Thursday's New York closing, trading within the range of 7.3363-7.2790 throughout the day, rebounding for the third consecutive trading day.

Cryptocurrency:

• In New York's closing, the CME Bitcoin futures BTC main contract has risen 5.47% from Thursday's New York closing, closing at $84,055.00, with a cumulative decline of 0.35% this week.

• Spot Bitcoin has cumulatively declined 0.55%, currently priced at $83,672, having dropped to $74,424.94 shortly after the European stock market opened on Monday.

• The CME Ether futures DCR main contract has risen 4.19%, closing at $1,577.50, with a cumulative decline of 13.09% this week.

US CFTC position data shows that bullish sentiment for Brent and WTI crude oil has reached a 21-week low, with the bullish sentiment for Brent experiencing the largest single-week decline in history. In the week of April 8, speculative net long positions in NYMEX WTI crude oil fell by 25,159 contracts to 69,463 contracts, marking a six-week low.

Crude Oil:

• In New York's closing, WTI crude oil futures have risen 2.38%, closing at $61.50 per barrel.

• Brent crude oil futures have risen 2.15%, closing at $64.69.

Natural Gas:

• NYMEX natural gas futures fell 0.37%, reported at $3.544 per million British thermal units.

New York gold futures rose over 2% to break $3,260, setting a new historical high, while the Philadelphia Gold and Silver Index rose over 19% this week. London copper rose over 4% this week, while London tin fell about 12%.

Gold:

• In New York's late trading, spot gold rose 1.90%, reported at $3,236.42 per ounce, with a cumulative increase of 6.48% this week.

• COMEX gold futures rose 2.40%, reported at $3,253.70 per ounce, with a cumulative increase of 7.22% this week.

Silver:

• In New York's late trading, spot silver rose 3.41%, reported at $32.2925 per ounce, with a cumulative increase of 9.15% this week, showing overall upward volatility.

• COMEX silver futures rose 4.47%, reported at $32.135 per ounce, with a cumulative increase of 9.99% this week.

Other Metals:

• In New York's late trading, COMEX copper futures rose 3.82%, reported at $4.5535 per pound, with a cumulative increase of 3.43% this week.

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• LME copper futures closed up $166, reported at $9,154 per ton, with a cumulative increase of nearly 4.26% this week.

• LME aluminum futures closed up $26, reported at $2,396 per ton. LME zinc futures closed up $10, reported at $2,652 per ton. LME lead futures closed up $22, reported at $1,914 per ton.

• LME nickel futures closed up $271, reported at $15,069 per ton, with a cumulative increase of about 2.11% this week.

• LME tin futures closed up $561, reported at $31,219 per ton, with a cumulative decrease of over 11.75% this week