Wall Street's most accurate analyst: Trump has turned "American exceptionalism" into "American denialism," short the S&P 500 before the trade war calms down
Hartnett expects that if Trump's tariff policy leads the U.S. economy into a mild recession, the S&P 500 index could further decline to 4,800 points, which means there is about a 9% downside potential compared to Thursday's closing price
As the large-scale tariff policy implemented by the Trump administration triggers turmoil in global markets, Michael Hartnett, the chief strategist at Bank of America, known as Wall Street's most accurate analyst, issued a warning that unless the Federal Reserve intervenes to stabilize the market and the trade war calms down, one should sell the S&P 500 index on any rebound.
So far this year, the S&P 500 index has fallen by more than 10%. Hartnett predicts that if Trump's tariff policy leads the U.S. economy into a mild recession, the S&P 500 index could further decline to 4,800 points, which means there is about a 9% downside potential compared to Thursday's closing price.
UBS previously pointed out in a research report that the scale of the Trump administration's tariff policy far exceeds expectations and has "completely changed the investment landscape," while the market has "not fully priced in" this risk.
"American Exceptionalism" → "American Denialism"
In a recently released research report, Hartnett stated that Trump's tariff policy and the resulting market turmoil are transforming "American exceptionalism" into "American denialism." He suggests shorting U.S. stocks before the S&P 500 index reaches 4,800 points, and going long on two-year U.S. Treasuries.
Hartnett wrote in the report that higher bond yields, lower stocks, and a weaker dollar "are driving global asset liquidation, which is likely to force policymakers to take action." However, investors should still "sell the rebound in risk assets."
Although the S&P 500 index saw its largest single-day gain since 2008 on Wednesday following the announcement of a pause on some "reciprocal tariffs," the index resumed its decline on Thursday, indicating a lack of confidence in the rebound. Hartnett stated that he would maintain a short position until the Federal Reserve "significantly" cuts interest rates to break the liquidation cycle and the trade war is paused.
Hartnett suggests that if policy panic leads to a recession, but the recession is short-lived or mild, then one could buy when the S&P 500 index drops to around 4,800 points. However, many investors strongly oppose this view, believing that declining earnings expectations will push the index toward 4,000 points