U.S. Stock Outlook | Three major stock index futures rise, Morgan Stanley, JP Morgan and other bank stocks kick off Q1 earnings season

1. On April 11th (Friday) before the US stock market opened, the three major US stock index futures rose together. As of the time of writing, Dow futures rose by 0.25%, S&P 500 index futures rose by 0.35%, and Nasdaq futures rose by 0.43%.

1. As of the time of writing, the German DAX index fell by 1.46%, the UK FTSE 100 index rose by 0.52%, the French CAC 40 index fell by 0.42%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 index fell by 0.77%.

1. As of the time of writing, WTI crude oil rose by 0.10%, priced at $60.13 per barrel. Brent crude oil rose by 0.13%, priced at $63.41 per barrel.

Market News

Bridgewater's Ray Dalio warns: Tariff turmoil damages the reputation of US reliability. Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, warned that after this week's global market turmoil, investors have experienced "trauma, shock, or fear." In an interview, he stated, "This has greatly affected people's psychology and attitude towards the reliability of the US. This could have been handled better." He pointed out that it is worth paying attention to the weakening of the dollar and the trading situation of 30-year US Treasury bonds versus 10-year US Treasury bonds to look for signs that investors are moving away from what has long been considered the safest asset in the world. He expressed, "What I am most worried about is the fundamental supply and demand of debt." When asked if some investors would go bankrupt if US President Donald Trump had not canceled the tariffs, Dalio said, "Some people would definitely go bankrupt, not just because of the tariffs, but also because of the impact on the capital markets." He added, "When capital markets tighten, a spiral effect occurs."

The "global safe haven" status of US Treasuries is shaken, issuing a warning against Trump's tariff policy. On Wall Street in the US, US Treasuries are regarded as rock-solid safe assets, considered risk-free investments, and have long been the preferred safe haven for investors during times of panic. During the global financial crisis, during the 9/11 attacks, and even when the US's own credit rating was downgraded, US Treasuries saw price increases. However, now, with President Donald Trump's comprehensive assault on global trade, the status of US Treasuries as a global safe haven is increasingly being questioned. Recently, US Treasury yields, especially long-term bond yields, have surged significantly, while the dollar exchange rate has sharply declined. Even more concerning is the recent pattern in market movements. Investors often sell 10-year and 30-year US Treasuries at the same time they are frantically dumping stocks, cryptocurrencies, and other risk assets, leading to a drop in Treasury prices and a rise in yieldsConversely, government bonds and these risk assets have seen a simultaneous price increase.

Amid ongoing tariff turmoil, BMO Capital significantly lowers its S&P 500 index target. The S&P 500 index has had a difficult start in 2025. The situation worsened further after U.S. President Trump announced reciprocal tariffs on April 2. The current heightened uncertainty has prompted BMO Capital Markets to lower its year-end target for the S&P 500 index. In a report, the firm stated that it has reduced its target for the S&P 500 index by the end of 2025 from 6,700 points to 6,100 points, while also lowering its earnings per share forecast for the S&P 500 index in 2025 from $275 to $250. Although BMO Capital Markets has downgraded its expectations for the S&P 500 index in 2025, it remains cautiously optimistic about the longer-term outlook. The firm added, "It is important to clarify that we firmly believe 'this too shall pass.'"

Capital is fleeing madly! U.S. high-risk debt funds face historic withdrawals. U.S. leveraged loan funds and high-yield bond funds experienced the largest single-week outflow of funds in history, as investors sold off corporate bonds amid concerns that tariff-induced market turmoil would impact the U.S. economy. High-yield bond funds and leveraged loan funds faced historic single-week outflows of $9.6 billion and $6.5 billion, respectively. As the market anticipates that the Federal Reserve will be forced to cut interest rates earlier than expected, the loan market is being impacted by capital outflows, and a group of credit investors may be seeking to increase the liquidity of their portfolios amid the turmoil. On the other hand, according to LSEG Lipper, U.S. government bond funds saw a record inflow of $12.5 billion in the same week.

Economists warn of inflation pressure: Tariff impacts may drive prices up in the summer. Economists say that U.S. President Trump's tariff measures and the resulting trade war will translate into higher consumer prices in the summer. Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's, stated, "I suspect that by May, or in June and July, the inflation statistics will look very bad." Tariffs are a type of import tax paid by U.S. businesses. Economists indicate that importers will at least pass some of the higher costs onto consumers. While economists debate whether tariffs will have a one-time or more lasting impact, it is undeniable that consumers' wallets will be affected. According to an analysis by the Yale Budget Lab of the tariff policies announced on Wednesday, consumers will lose $4,400 in purchasing power "in the short term" (the analysis did not specify a time frame).

Individual Stock News

Wells Fargo (WFC.US) Q1 performance: Expenses and credit loss provisions better than expected, tariff uncertainty weighs on loan demand. Wells Fargo successfully controlled expenses in the first quarter, and credit loss provisions were below analyst expectations, but loan demand weakened due to tariff uncertainty affecting the U.S. economic outlook. Non-interest expenses decreased by 3.1% year-on-year to $13.9 billion, better than market expectations, as CEO Charlie Scharf continues to push for cost-cutting measuresHowever, the San Francisco-based bank's net interest income (NII, the difference between loan income and deposit costs) was $11.5 billion, below the expected $11.8 billion. Wells Fargo maintained its full-year guidance, still expecting net interest income growth of 1% to 3%.

BlackRock (BLK.US) reported a 12% year-on-year revenue increase, reaching $5.3 billion. In the first quarter of this year, BlackRock attracted only $83 billion in client funds to its investment funds, a figure significantly below market expectations. Just days after the end of the quarter, the tariff policy announced by President Trump triggered severe fluctuations in the stock and bond markets. BlackRock stated in a release on Friday that investors injected $107 billion into exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and $38 billion into fixed-income products during the quarter. However, the net inflow into its long-term investment funds did not meet analysts' average expectation of $105 billion. Other data showed that BlackRock's adjusted earnings per share increased by 15% year-on-year to $11.30, surpassing analysts' average forecast of $10.11. Revenue increased by 12% year-on-year, reaching $5.3 billion.

Trump's new policies shake the market, and JP Morgan (JPM.US) sees record Q1 stock trading revenue. The financial report showed that JP Morgan's Q1 revenue was $46 billion, a year-on-year increase of 9.7%, exceeding market expectations; the non-GAAP earnings per share was $4.91, higher than the expected $4.64. JP Morgan's stock market revenue grew by 48% to $3.81 billion, far exceeding analysts' expectations and breaking the record for stock trading revenue set by the bank four years ago. However, its CEO Jamie Dimon remains cautious about the outlook for the U.S. economy.

Morgan Stanley (MS.US) reports growth in both profit and revenue in Q1. Morgan Stanley recently released its Q1 2024 financial report, showing significant profit growth driven by increased client activity amid heightened market volatility. For the three months ending March 31, Morgan Stanley's net profit reached $4.3 billion, or earnings per share of $2.60, a substantial increase from $3.4 billion (or $2.02 per share) in the same period last year. The report indicated that Morgan Stanley's total revenue in Q1 rose to $17.7 billion, up from $15.1 billion in the same period last year. Following the earnings announcement, its stock price rose by 1.9% in pre-market trading.

Tesla (TSLA.US) halts sales of Model S and Model X new cars in China. Tesla has removed the "order new car" option for the Model S and Model X electric vehicles from its website in China, both of which are imported. Just days ago, China raised tariffs on U.S. goods to 84% in retaliation for the U.S. escalating tariffs on China. Reports indicate that as of the end of March, Tesla's Chinese website had offered an immediate ordering option for these two models, but this option was removed on Friday. Existing inventory, such as the white Model S priced at 759,900 yuan (approximately $103,800), is still available for purchase.

Oil prices remain weak, and BP (BP.US) issues earnings warning, expecting a significant increase in debt. The UK-based energy giant BP (BP.US) stated in its latest earnings warning that debt has significantly increased in the first quarter, marking another setback for the company as it struggles to improve its financial situationDuring this period, due to the weak trend of oil prices combined with the overall decline in the company's upstream production, as well as the natural gas trading performance being much weaker than expected. This British energy giant warned on Friday that it expects net debt to increase significantly by about $4 billion compared to the previous quarter, mainly due to a substantial increase in working capital, while international oil prices remain weak and oil and gas production has significantly declined. BP stated that the overall production decline is largely due to the decrease in natural gas production, which has left investors very disappointed for a company that is refocusing on its core fossil fuel business.

Important Economic Data and Event Forecast

Beijing time 20:30: U.S. March PPI year-on-year (%).

Beijing time 22:00: U.S. April University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index preliminary value.

Next day Beijing time 01:00: U.S. total number of active drilling rigs as of the week ending April 11.

Beijing time 22:00: 2025 FOMC voting member, St. Louis Fed President Bullard speaks on the U.S. economy and monetary policy.

Beijing time 23:00: FOMC permanent voting member, New York Fed President Williams speaks on economic outlook and monetary policy.

Next day Beijing time 03:30: CFTC releases weekly positions report