The U.S. retail industry has sounded the alarm—Trump's tariff policy will trigger a surge in prices and shortages of goods within this month, equivalent to 18 months of inflation erupting in a very short time.
According to data from Yale University's Budget Lab, some retailers are preparing to raise prices within two weeks, as Trump's tariff threats will increase their costs. A 10% blanket tariff will lead to an overall price increase of 2.9%.
&#34;This is equivalent to 18 months of normal inflation occurring in a very short time,&#34; said Ernie Tedeschi, the economic director of the Budget Lab.
Although the tariff threats have caused turmoil on Wall Street for several days, the worst is yet to come for U.S. brick-and-mortar retail. Tedeschi stated that price changes will first appear on fresh food shelves, expected to begin by the end of this month. According to data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture, 59% of the fresh fruit consumed in the U.S. and 35% of the vegetables rely on imports.
<h2>U.S. Retailers' Profit Margins Are Tight, Costs Will Be Passed on to Consumers</h2>
This week, Walmart, the largest retailer in the U.S., stated that tariffs could &#34;affect prices,&#34; but CEO Doug McMillon said the company would strive to minimize the impact, including managing its product mix.
Kent International, one of the largest bicycle manufacturers in the U.S., also stated that unless Trump lowers tariffs, prices across the industry could rise by as much as 50%.
&#34;Retailers have only a slim profit margin of 2-3%, leaving little room for maneuver,&#34; said Jonathan Gold, vice president of the National Retail Federation:
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&#34;They will do their best to protect consumers, but I think it needs to be recognized that, unfortunately, some costs will have to be passed on to consumers.&#34;
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In fact, some consumers have already begun stockpiling goods in anticipation of rising prices, Tedeschi noted, which will only accelerate price increases.
The Financial Times reported on the 11th that at a Target store in downtown Manhattan, the shelves that usually hold bottled water, paper towels, and flour are completely empty. Employees stated that while they have more stock in the back of the store, customers are quickly purchasing non-perishable items faster than they can restock. An anonymous employee said:
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&#34;Things are selling out very quickly.&#34;
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Tom Wark, executive director of the American Wine Retailers Association, stated that wine sales are also increasing, as tariffs have raised prices, “a bottle of European wine that originally costs $30 could rise to $50 within three weeks.”
The price increase for coffee will be even steeper, according to data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture, 80% of coffee is imported. Ben Fung, the owner of a coffee shop in Manhattan, stated that before the tariffs take effect, his suppliers planned to raise prices by as much as 30% due to droughts in Brazil damaging the harvest

According to data from Yale University's Budget Lab, some retailers are preparing to raise prices within two weeks, and a 10% comprehensive tax will lead to an overall price increase of 2.9%, which is equivalent to 18 months of normal inflation occurring in a very short time

- The U.S. retail sector is on alert as Trump's tariff policy is expected to trigger price surges and product shortages, equating to 18 months of inflation occurring in a short time.  
- Retailers are preparing to raise prices within two weeks, with a 10% tariff potentially increasing overall prices by 2.9%, particularly affecting fresh food items reliant on imports.  
- As consumers begin stockpiling goods in anticipation of rising prices, some products are already selling out quickly, with significant price increases expected for items like European wine and coffee.