U.S. Stock Outlook | Three major stock index futures all fell, tonight's U.S. March CPI may become the "final chapter" of inflation slowdown

1. As of April 10th (Thursday) pre-market, U.S. stock index futures are all down. As of the time of writing, Dow futures are down 1.23%, S&P 500 futures are down 1.68%, and Nasdaq futures are down 1.98%.

1. As of the time of writing, the German DAX index is up 5.31%, the UK FTSE 100 index is up 4.23%, the French CAC 40 index is up 5.20%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 index is up 5.53%.

1. As of the time of writing, WTI crude oil is down 3.10%, priced at $60.42 per barrel. Brent crude oil is down 2.93%, priced at $63.56 per barrel.

Market News

Trump's tariffs create turmoil, U.S. March CPI may mark the "final chapter" of inflation slowdown. Due to President Trump's large-scale tariff increases, the recent trend of easing price increases may be disrupted, and the March Consumer Price Index (CPI) report may be the last time investors see signs of easing inflation. The March CPI will be released at 8:30 AM Eastern Time on Thursday. Less than 24 hours before the release, the U.S. suspended the imposition of 90-day reciprocal tariffs on most countries, causing a significant rise in the U.S. stock market due to the latest trade dynamics. Although Trump has currently suspended reciprocal tariffs, the 10% baseline tariff that took effect over the weekend for most countries still remains. Mexico and Canada still face another set of tariffs related to fentanyl, while specific industry tariffs on steel, aluminum, and automobiles remain unchanged.

Stubborn retail investors welcome the "dawn moment"! Sticking to "buying on dips" finally leads to an epic rebound in U.S. stocks. Retail investors who have consistently adhered to the classic bullish strategy of "buying on dips" during the recent continuous decline of U.S. stocks have finally seen a "miracle day" as they bet on Trump's eventual easing of aggressive tariff policies to stimulate a rebound in U.S. stocks. On Wednesday, with a dramatic turnaround in President Donald Trump's tariff trade policy driving a significant rise in U.S. stocks, retail investors tasted the sweet victory. Even as the benchmark index—the S&P 500—plummeted and large institutional investors on Wall Street fled in panic, retail investors in the U.S. stock market stuck to their "buying on dips" strategy, recording an average single-day investment return of up to 17% on WednesdayTrump's Tariff Easing Fails to Prevent Recession Alerts, U.S. Import Taxes Remain at Historical Highs. Economists say that despite financial markets welcoming U.S. President Trump's suspension of higher tariffs on dozens of trading partners, U.S. import taxes remain at historical highs, and the risk of a U.S. economic recession still exists. On Wednesday, Trump reduced tariffs on countries previously subjected to high tariffs to a baseline rate of 10%, excluding China, which has an import tariff rate of 125%. However, according to Bloomberg Economics, the average U.S. tariff rate is still rising to 24%, having increased nearly 22 percentage points since the beginning of Trump's second term. Bloomberg economists Lana Sajedi, Meva Koushin, and Tom Orlik wrote in a report: "This means that the overall impact on the U.S. economy is expected to be not much different from previous announcements."

Federal Reserve Officials Insist on Anti-Inflation Stance, Reiterate Preference to Pause Rate Cuts. Federal Reserve officials indicated they are prepared to keep policy interest rates unchanged to minimize the risk of sustained inflation triggered by Trump's tariffs, even as the labor market softens further. In public comments and interviews, some officials sent clear signals that they ruled out the possibility of rate cuts. Rate cuts would be seen as an insurance policy against any economic slowdown triggered by tariffs. Instead, policymakers are doubling down on controlling inflation and Americans' expectations of rising prices, a stance that may keep them on hold even in the face of a significant rise in unemployment. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari wrote in an article released Wednesday morning: "Due to tariffs, the barriers to changing the federal funds rate in some way have increased."

Are U.S. Assets "No Longer Attractive"? Deutsche Bank Boldly Predicts: The Dollar Era is Coming to an End. Deutsche Bank believes the dollar era is coming to an end. George Saravelos, co-head of the bank's foreign exchange research department, stated: "We are witnessing a simultaneous collapse in the prices of all U.S. assets, including stocks, the dollar, and bonds. We are entering unknown territory in the global financial system." With changes in the dollar's trajectory, he noted: "It is worth mentioning that the international dollar financing market and cross-currency basis are still performing well." Saravelos added: "In a typical crisis environment, markets hoard dollar liquidity to ensure that their potential U.S. asset base is financed. This dollar imbalance will ultimately trigger the Fed's swap lines." However, he added that the market seems to have "lost confidence" in U.S. assets, as they are not buying but rather selling.

Individual Stock News

Apple (AAPL.US) Launches "Anti-Tariff Blitz": 600 Tons of iPhones Airlifted from India to the U.S. According to media reports citing informed sources, since early March when the Trump administration signaled the imposition of "reciprocal tariffs" globally, U.S. consumer electronics giant Apple has airlifted approximately 600 tons of iPhones (about 1.5 million units) from its iPhone manufacturing plants in India to the U.S. market. This emergency airlift of iPhones can be seen as the latest move by the tech giant to ramp up production in India to evade Trump's high tariffs. The details of this so-called "lightning transport" of large-scale iPhone airlifts reveal the secret strategy of this American smartphone provider to circumvent Trump's tariffs by rapidly accumulating inventory of popular iPhone models in one of its largest markets, the U.SGoogle (GOOGL.US) empowers the largest power grid operator in the U.S., PJM, accelerating the grid connection process for new power projects. Google announced on Thursday that it will collaborate with PJM Interconnection, the largest power grid operator in North America, to jointly deploy artificial intelligence (AI) technology to accelerate the grid connection process for new power projects. This collaboration marks the first time AI technology has been used to comprehensively manage the power grid interconnection queue system. As large tech companies build data centers on a large scale to train and deploy AI, electricity demand continues to rise. Amanda Peterson Corio, Google's energy lead for data centers, stated at a press conference, "For over a decade, the industry has been discussing the concept of building a smart grid. Now, with the help of AI, we can finally turn this vision into reality."

Under tariff clouds, Costco (COST.US) becomes an unexpected winner, with strong retail performance in March. American retail giant Costco (COST.US) announced a 6.4% increase in comparable sales for March, with the U.S. market growing by 7.5%, the Canadian market by 4.1%, and other international markets by 2.9%. E-commerce comparable sales surged by 16.2% during the month. After excluding the impact of exchange rates and gasoline prices, comparable sales grew by 9.1%, with the U.S. market growing by 8.7%. Total sales for the five weeks ending April 6 increased by 8.6% to $25.51 billion. The retailer noted that due to the calendar change for Easter, there was one more shopping day in March compared to last year. The calendar effect had a positive impact of about 1.5% on total sales and comparable sales. Some analysts speculate that Costco's foot traffic in March may have increased as consumers rushed to purchase household products before prices rise due to the trade war.

Under tariff shocks, Dell (DELL.US) is busy "lightening the load," with significant reductions in computer discounts in the U.S. Dell Technologies has canceled or reduced discounts on many of its computer products in the U.S., further indicating that consumers may have to pay higher prices in the face of fluctuating tariff policies. An analysis of archived versions of Dell's website saved by the Internet Archive's "Wayback Machine" shows that the number of laptop discounts currently listed in Dell's online store is at least the lowest since early 2024. Some special offers on desktop computers have also been canceled. For example, an XPS 16 laptop had a $600 discount at the end of March 2025 and also had significant discounts in December 2024. However, by Wednesday, that discount had been canceled, and the total price of the laptop rose to about $3,050.

Tariff gloom cannot hinder the upward momentum, TSMC (TSM.US) Q1 revenue easily exceeds expectations. Benefiting from strong demand for artificial intelligence, the world's largest chip foundry, TSMC, announced on Thursday that its revenue for the first quarter reached NT$839.25 billion (approximately $25.55 billion), exceeding market expectations. Refinitiv's (LSEG) smart forecast from 19 analysts indicated that the market had previously expected TSMC's first-quarter revenue to be NT$835.66 billion. Yesterday, the U.S. announced a 90-day suspension of reciprocal tariffs on most countries, leading to a significant rise in the U.S. stock market, with TSMC's U.S. stock closing up 12.29%As of the time of publication, the stock has pulled back 1.39% in pre-market trading. TSMC is a major supplier for many companies, including Apple (AAPL.US) and NVIDIA (NVDA.US). U.S. President Trump stated on Tuesday that he has informed TSMC, which has committed to building a new factory in the U.S., that if the company does not build the factory in the U.S., it will face taxes of up to 100%.

Important Economic Data and Event Forecast

Beijing time 20:30: U.S. March CPI year-on-year unadjusted (%), U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending April 5 (10,000).

Beijing time 20:30: 2027 FOMC voting member and Richmond Fed President Barkin will deliver a speech titled "Navigating the Economic Fog" at a summit and participate in a Q&A session.

Beijing time 21:30: 2026 FOMC voting member and Dallas Fed President Logan will give a welcome speech at an event.

Beijing time 22:00: 2025 FOMC voting member and Kansas Fed President George will speak on the economy and monetary policy, and the U.S. Senate will hold a hearing on the nomination of Federal Reserve Governor Bowman for the position of Vice Chair for Financial Supervision.

Beijing time 23:30: 2027 FOMC voting member and Richmond Fed President Barkin will deliver a speech titled "Navigating the Economic Fog" at a summit and participate in a Q&A session.

The next day, Beijing time 00:00: 2025 FOMC voting member and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee will speak at the New York Economic Club.

The next day, Beijing time 00:00: EIA will release the monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook report.

The next day, Beijing time 00:30: 2026 FOMC voting member and Philadelphia Fed President Harker will speak on financial technology.

Earnings Forecast

Pre-market on Friday: JP Morgan (JPM.US), Wells Fargo (WFC.US), Morgan Stanley (MS.US), BlackRock (BLK.US)