Global Market "Just Out of ICU and Off to KTV" Investors' Concerns: Fluctuations Depend Entirely on a Single Statement

A single tweet from Trump can instantly shift the U.S. stock market from panic to euphoria, and this extreme volatility is eroding investor confidence.

On Wednesday, the level of volatility in the U.S. market reached unprecedented heights, with the VIX fear index recording its largest single-day drop in history, while the volatility of U.S. Treasury yields also set records, with both the 2-year and 30-year Treasury yields experiencing daily fluctuations exceeding 0.3 percentage points within the same week, a first since records began in 1998.

Despite the market's sharp rebound, Wall Street has serious doubts about how long this rebound can last; after all, a single tweet can bring the U.S. stock market back to life, but it can also overturn everything again.

Many traders are concerned that policy positions may suddenly shift again.

"We are living minute by minute," said Eric Diton, President and Managing Director of Wealth Alliance. "There is a large group of terrified people outside trying to grasp something positive, but I don't think this is the bottom; the bottom cannot be confirmed until we see actual agreements signed."

"This two-way volatility is astonishing, but it's not uncommon in a bear market, nor does it indicate that the market has bottomed out," said Michael Purves, Founder and CEO of Tallbacken Capital Advisors. "I am selling into strength."

Kim Forrest, Chief Investment Officer of Bokeh Capital Partners LLC, stated:

"We still need to understand what the new world order looks like... Volatility will be the name of the game for a while until negotiations are completed. And negotiations are never really completed."

Colin Cieszynski, Chief Market Strategist at SIA Wealth Management, also expressed a cautious outlook:

"The subsequent trend will be interesting. Over the past few days, we have clearly faced quite severe selling pressure, and the market is oversold. The market seems to view this as if everything is over, but I am not convinced that everything is over."

Despite the rebound, the U.S. stock market is still 11% lower than the historical high of 6144 points in February. Even if policy positions temporarily ease, the restoration of market confidence and structure will take time. With the market rapidly shifting from fear to euphoria and then to caution, the only certainty is the uncertainty itself.