U.S. Stock Outlook | Three Major Index Futures Decline, Federal Reserve Meeting Minutes Set to Be Revealed

1. As of April 9th (Wednesday) before the US stock market opened, the three major US stock index futures all fell. As of the time of writing, Dow futures were down 1.91%, S&P 500 futures were down 1.82%, and Nasdaq futures were down 1.55%.

1. As of the time of writing, the German DAX index was down 3.82%, the UK FTSE 100 index was down 3.57%, the French CAC40 index was down 3.92%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 index was down 3.81%.

1. As of the time of writing, WTI crude oil was down 6.68%, priced at $55.60 per barrel. Brent crude oil was down 6.35%, priced at $58.83 per barrel.

Market News

Federal Reserve Meeting Minutes to be Revealed Soon: The Last Card Before Policy Shift? Investors should approach the upcoming release of the Federal Reserve's latest meeting minutes with caution, as this document is still worth scrutinizing word by word. Scheduled for release at 2 AM Beijing time on Thursday, this minutes will detail the discussions from the March 19-20 policy meeting—at which the Federal Reserve maintained the benchmark interest rate in the range of 4.25%-4.50% and signaled a policy of three rate cuts of 25 basis points each within the year. However, times have changed, and the market landscape has undergone a dramatic shift. Following Trump's announcement of a global tariff plan on April 2, US stocks plummeted, and several economists warned of a potential economic recession within the year. Powell's speech on April 4 clearly shifted to a hawkish tone, warning that "we are facing a highly uncertain outlook while bearing the risks of rising unemployment and inflation." Traders have raised their expectations for rate cuts this year to four times.

US Treasuries Hit by Tariff "Nuclear Bomb" Shockwave: Nearly Trillion in Basis Trades Experience Volatility, Fed's Market Rescue Arsenal Running Low. The US Treasury market has experienced severe volatility, raising concerns about the fragility of the world's largest bond market. Driven by the risk-averse sentiment triggered by tariffs, investors have been selling stocks and turning to safe government bonds, causing the $29 trillion US Treasury market to surge. However, on Monday, US Treasuries faced a wave of selling, leading to a spike in benchmark yields of 17 basis points on that day, with the yield fluctuation range currently around 35 basis points, marking one of the largest fluctuations in 20 years for 10-year Treasury yields. Hedge funds have built positions of up to $800 billion through "basis trading" (arbitraging the price difference between spot and futures). When Treasury prices plummet, causing collateral values to shrink, these highly leveraged players are forced to sell assets to meet margin calls, creating a vicious cycle Market sentiment deteriorates rapidly! JP Morgan's model estimates the probability of a U.S. recession at nearly 80%. JP Morgan stated that the stock market, closely tied to the U.S. economy, has seen concerns about a recession soar to nearly 80%, while credit investors remain optimistic amid potential financing pressures. According to JP Morgan's market-based recession indicator dashboard, the Russell 2000 index, which has been heavily impacted in recent sell-offs and is primarily composed of small-cap stocks, currently shows a 79% probability of an economic recession. Other asset classes have also sounded the alarm for a recession. The S&P 500 index indicates a 62% probability of a recession, precious metals show a 68% probability, and five-year U.S. Treasury bonds indicate a 54% probability. In contrast, the investment-grade credit market shows only a 25% probability of a recession, but this is still higher than the 0% recorded in November last year.

Tariff "nuclear bomb" has astonishing destructive power! Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Summers warns: the U.S. may head towards recession, with 2 million jobs at risk. Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers warned that due to the current tariff policies being implemented, the U.S. may be heading towards a recession, potentially resulting in 2 million Americans losing their jobs. Meanwhile, an increasing number of economists are sounding alarms about the U.S. job market. Summers stated that President Donald Trump's tariff plans "will face choices in the coming weeks," and these plans exceed the tariffs that "led to the Great Depression" in 1930. He noted that "abandoning the announced policies" would be the wise move. Summers emphasized that financial markets are "very clearly discussing" the impact of tariffs, and any hints at easing tariffs would lead to a surge in the stock market, while any indications of continued tariffs would cause a market crash.

Bear hunters pull the trigger again! BCA Research's chief strategist predicts the S&P 500 will drop to 4,450 points. Peter Berezin, the global chief strategist at BCA Research, stated that he predicts U.S. stocks are likely to face sell-offs, leading to substantial profits from his bearish options bets. He added that since the S&P 500 index has further to fall to reach his target of 4,450 points (below consensus expectations), he may make another bearish bet. Recently, U.S. stocks have been heavily impacted by President Trump's tariff measures, which have yielded returns for BCA Research, who had previously bet on a decline in U.S. stocks. Peter Berezin stated, "I am willing to double down again because the stock market and the economy still have downside potential."

Individual Stock News

Trump's tariff shockwave severely impacts airline industry confidence, Delta Air Lines (DAL.US) withdraws full-year earnings guidance. Due to the uncertain global trade situation, Delta Air Lines (DAL.US) has withdrawn its full-year financial guidance, serving as a stark example of the impact of Trump's tariff policies on U.S. businesses. The earnings report showed that Delta's first-quarter revenue was $14.04 billion, a 2.1% year-over-year increase, exceeding market expectations; the non-GAAP earnings per share were $0.46, higher than the market expectation of $0.39. Although Delta still expects to be profitable by 2025, it declined to reaffirm the forecast of adjusted earnings per share exceeding $7.35 announced in January The company announced on Wednesday that it would update its outlook within the year as circumstances permit.

Trump threatens TSMC (TSM.US): Pay 100% tax if no factory is built in the U.S. U.S. President Trump stated on Tuesday that he has informed TSMC, which has committed to building new factories in the U.S., that if the company does not build a factory in the U.S., it will be subject to taxes of up to 100%. Trump criticized former President Biden for providing TSMC with $6.6 billion in subsidies for its semiconductor factory in Phoenix, Arizona, claiming that semiconductor companies do not need this money. He stated, "I didn't give them money. I just said, if you don't build here, you have to pay a big tax."

Female U.S. Congress member quickly takes the "U.S. stock market knife" and buys the dip on Apple (AAPL.US), Amazon (AMZN.US), and other stocks after tariff threats. At least one U.S. Congress member chose to buy the dip in the recent downturn of the U.S. stock market. During the recent market sell-off triggered by tariffs, Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene disclosed that she bought stocks from several companies across various industries, including tech stocks. A new congressional trading report submitted by Greene shows that she purchased shares from multiple companies on April 3 and April 4, including Apple, Amazon, Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A.US), and Dell Technologies (DELL.US), with each investment ranging from $1,001 to $15,000.

Foxconn executive: Hopes to collaborate with Nissan (NSANY.US) on electric vehicles. The head of Foxconn's electric vehicle business stated that the company hopes to collaborate with Nissan, but has not yet made contact with them. Jun Seki, Foxconn's Chief Strategy Officer for electric vehicles, revealed this intention in an interview before a seminar in Tokyo aimed at showcasing Foxconn's electric vehicle strategy to Japanese companies. Seki, a former senior executive at Nissan, pointed out that compatibility with Japanese automakers, especially Nissan, would be a significant advantage for Foxconn. Additionally, Seki mentioned that Foxconn joining a potential broader collaboration with Honda, Nissan, and Mitsubishi Motors is a good idea and confirmed that Foxconn is finalizing an agreement to supply electric vehicles to Mitsubishi. Foxconn had previously stated that it would consider acquiring a stake in Nissan, but the primary goal is collaboration.

Trump demands Apple (AAPL.US) produce iPhones in the U.S. Analyst directly counters: "I don't think it will work." President Donald Trump believes that Apple can produce its iconic product, the iPhone, in the U.S. to avoid new tariffs. However, Needham analyst Laura Martin disagrees. On Tuesday, Martin responded to White House Press Secretary Caroline Levitt's comments about the tech giant moving its iPhone manufacturing to the U.S. during a program, stating, "I don't think it will work." Martin pointed out that if Apple starts producing this flagship product in the U.S., its costs would skyrocket. On Wall Street, she is not the only one with such concerns. Dan Ives, an analyst at Wedbush Securities, has stated that if produced in the U.S., the cost of an iPhone could reach $3,500 Another sign of demand recovery! Volkswagen (VWAGY.US) Q1 electric vehicle deliveries in Europe more than doubled year-on-year. Volkswagen announced on Wednesday that its electric vehicle deliveries in Europe reached over 150,000 units in the first quarter of this year, more than doubling from 74,400 units in the same period last year. This is another indication that demand for electric vehicles is rebounding. Data from the European Automobile Manufacturers Association shows that despite a decline in total car sales so far this year, sales of pure electric vehicles in Europe have surged, driven by new EU emission targets and the launch of new models. It is worth mentioning that several automakers, including Volkswagen, are facing challenges from the tariffs imposed by U.S. President Trump. The 25% tariff on cars imported to the U.S. has already taken effect.

Important Economic Data and Event Forecast

Beijing time 22:00: U.S. February wholesale inventory month-on-month final value (%).

Beijing time 22:30: U.S. EIA crude oil inventory change for the week ending April 4 (10,000 barrels).

Beijing time 23:00: U.S. April IPSOS primary consumer sentiment index PCSI.

Next day Beijing time 01:00: U.S. April 9 10-year Treasury auction - total amount (100 million USD).

Beijing time 23:00: 2027 FOMC voting member, Richmond Fed President Barkin speaks.

Beijing time 23:52: U.S. reciprocal tariffs officially take effect.

Next day Beijing time 00:30: 2027 FOMC voting member, Richmond Fed President Barkin participates in a dialogue event at the Washington Economic Club.

Next day Beijing time 02:00: The Federal Reserve releases the minutes of the March monetary policy meeting