The once largest pharmaceutical company in the world, Pfizer, is experiencing a nightmare. After UBS analysts downgraded their earnings expectations, Pfizer's stock price has fallen back to 1997 levels, facing multiple negative factors such as debt burdens and product line challenges.
On Tuesday, April 8, Pfizer's stock price fell by 3.5%, closing at $21.84, and at one point hit a 52-week low of $21.44 during the trading session. Pfizer's current market capitalization is only $125 billion, just 20% of industry leader Eli Lilly.
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According to Barron's, Tuesday's closing price has returned to 1997 levels, in stark contrast to the peak of over $60 during the COVID-19 drug boom in 2021.
<h2>UBS Downgrades Earnings Expectations</h2>
UBS analyst Trung Huynh pointed out in a report on Tuesday that sales of Pfizer's COVID-19 drugs, including the Paxlovid treatment and Comirnaty vaccine, may fall short of Wall Street's expectations in the first quarter.
The analyst lowered Pfizer's 2025 earnings per share forecast from $2.92 to $2.89 and predicted first-quarter earnings per share of $0.67, below the consensus expectation of $0.71.
Huynh wrote in the report:
<blockquote>
“We maintain a neutral rating on Pfizer and need to see stability in COVID-19 business, continued growth in key assets (such as Nurtec, ADCs, etc.), and execution of the drug pipeline before becoming more optimistic about the company.&#34;
Here, ADC refers to antibody-drug conjugates, a cancer treatment method.
</blockquote>
<h2>Debt Burden and Capital Allocation Dilemma</h2>
Pfizer has no plans to repurchase stock in 2024 and does not intend to do so in 2025, as the company is focused on reducing debt incurred from a series of acquisitions.
Pfizer's net debt (debt minus cash) at the end of 2024 is approximately $45 billion.
For investors, the lack of a stock repurchase plan amid such a depressed stock price is another frustrating factor, which is the cost of the company strengthening its drug pipeline through expensive acquisitions.
<h2>Can Oral Weight Loss Drugs Be a Lifeline?</h2>
UBS analyst Huynh stated that investors are eager to learn more data about Pfizer's GLP-1 weight loss drug danuglipron, which is currently undergoing clinical trials. This oral medication may have the potential to compete with existing GLP-1 drugs that are currently only available in injectable form.
If this drug can succeed, it could be a key growth point for Pfizer, especially in the context of declining sales of COVID-related products, as the company urgently needs new sources of revenue to support its substantial dividend payment commitments and alleviate its debt burden.
Currently, Pfizer's dividend yield has reached 7.9%, which is not only the highest level among major pharmaceutical stocks but also one of the highest dividend yields in the S&amp;P 500 index. Although investors question the safety of the dividend, Pfizer's Chief Financial Officer David Denton has previously stated:
We are committed to maintaining and increasing dividends, and achieving our deleveraging goals by the end of 2025, providing a more balanced capital allocation

UBS analysts have lowered their first-quarter earnings per share forecast for Pfizer to $0.67, below the consensus expectation of $0.71. UBS believes that Pfizer's sales of COVID-19 drugs, including the Paxlovid treatment and Comirnaty vaccine, may fall short of Wall Street's expectations in the first quarter

- Pfizer, once the world's largest pharmaceutical company, is facing significant challenges, including a stock price drop to 1997 levels after UBS analysts lowered performance expectations.  
- On April 8, 2025, Pfizer's stock fell 3.5% to $21.84, with a market value of $125 billion, only 20% of Eli Lilly's valuation.  
- Analysts express concerns over declining COVID-19 product sales and high debt levels, while investors are hopeful for growth from the oral weight-loss drug danuglipron currently in clinical trials.