U.S. Stock Outlook | Trump plans to sign an executive order to expand coal mining and usage

1. On April 8th (Tuesday) before the U.S. stock market opened, the three major U.S. stock index futures all rose. As of the time of writing, Dow futures were up 2.90%, S&P 500 futures were up 2.66%, and Nasdaq futures were up 2.52%.

1. As of the time of writing, the German DAX index was up 2.32%, the UK FTSE 100 index was up 2.41%, the French CAC 40 index was up 2.14%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 index was up 2.15%.

1. As of the time of writing, WTI crude oil was up 0.72%, priced at $61.14 per barrel. Brent crude oil was up 0.48%, priced at $64.52 per barrel.

Market News

Trump plans to sign the "Black Gold Revival Act" to revitalize the coal industry and support the AI industry. According to reports, U.S. President Trump will sign an executive order on Tuesday afternoon aimed at expanding domestic coal mining and usage. This move is intended to provide energy security for high-energy-consuming artificial intelligence (AI) data centers while also attempting to revitalize the declining fossil fuel industry. According to a senior White House official, the executive order will include several federal initiatives to revitalize the coal industry. Key measures include: restoring federal coal mining rights on federal lands, designating coal as a critical strategic mineral, and promoting U.S. coal and related technology exports. Analysts point out that this shows the Trump administration views the country's coal reserves as an important strategic resource for maintaining a competitive advantage in the AI field and ensuring national security.

Is a long bear market approaching for U.S. stocks? Goldman Sachs and BlackRock both signal "red lights." As the trade war initiated by Trump continues to escalate, pessimistic warnings from Wall Street strategists regarding the stock market outlook are coming in succession. BlackRock strategists Jean Boivin and Wei Li released a report on Monday, downgrading the three-month rating for U.S. stocks from "overweight" to "neutral," stating that "in the context of significantly escalating global trade tensions, risk assets will face greater pressure in the short term." Meanwhile, a strategy team at Goldman Sachs pointed out that as the risk of economic recession increases, the current stock market sell-off is likely to evolve into a longer-lasting cyclical bear market. Currently, several international stock indices have met the technical definition of a bear market, with the S&P 500 index down 20% from its historical high set two months ago.

Earnings season is approaching, and U.S. stocks are facing the next storm after tariff impacts. After experiencing the impact of Trump's tariffs, U.S. stocks are about to face a new round of significant tests: the corporate earnings season. Current market expectations are not optimistic. As concerns grow among investors about the impact of the escalating trade war on corporate profits, the total market capitalization of S&P 500 index constituents has evaporated by over $5 trillion in the past three trading daysWall Street analysts are increasingly panicking over the economy falling into recession, generally holding a pessimistic view on corporate prospects. Data shows that the current market expectation for the year-on-year profit growth of S&P 500 index constituents in the first quarter is 6.7%, a significant downgrade from the 11.1% forecast when Trump was elected president in November last year. For the full-year profit growth in 2025, analysts expect it to drop from 12.5% at the beginning of the year to 9.4%.

Trump: Will not suspend tariff policy but is willing to negotiate. U.S. President Trump stated that he does not consider suspending the plan to impose additional tariffs on dozens of countries, despite trade partners eager to avoid tariffs trying to appease him; however, he indicated that he might be willing to engage in some negotiations. Trump stated that tariffs are "very important" to his economic agenda and will remain so overall, while keeping the door open for "fair and good deals with every country." He added, "Permanent tariffs can be imposed, and negotiations can also take place, because besides tariffs, we need other things." Before Trump's comments, his senior officials had sent mixed messages about the government's willingness to negotiate with trade partners. This uncertainty has exacerbated volatility in global markets and left foreign leaders frustrated with Trump's eagerness to reach agreements with the U.S.

Federal Reserve's Goolsbee: Businesses worry tariffs will reignite inflation surge. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee stated that business leaders are very concerned that tariffs could trigger widespread supply disruptions and reignite inflationary pressures. Goolsbee said in an interview on Monday, "What is concerning is that if these tariffs are as high as threatened by the U.S., if there are large-scale retaliatory tariffs, and then if retaliation occurs again, this could bring us back to the situation of runaway inflation we saw in 2021 and 2022." U.S. inflation soared to a 40-year high in 2022, forcing the Federal Reserve to significantly raise borrowing costs to combat price pressures. The Fed cut interest rates by 100 basis points in 2024 and has kept rates unchanged so far this year.

BlackRock CEO: The stock market will still fall sharply, but there are buying opportunities. BlackRock CEO Larry Fink stated that given concerns about an economic recession triggered by tariffs, the stock market may still experience significant declines during the current market sell-off. However, he believes this turmoil presents opportunities to buy stocks at substantial discounts. On Monday, Fink said in an interview with the Economic Club of New York, "When you see the stock market drop 20% in three days, clearly, the impact is huge, and the potential chain reaction of tariffs will be long-lasting. But... in the long run, this is more of a buying opportunity than a selling opportunity." Fink made these remarks while Wall Street was experiencing severe volatility. Following last week's market downturn, stocks opened significantly lower but closed well above the day's lows. The S&P 500 index was close to entering a bear market, having dropped 20% from its recent historical high reached in mid-February.

Individual Stock News

Walgreens (WBA.US) second-quarter revenue and earnings per share exceeded expectations. As the second-largest chain pharmacy giant in the United States, Walgreens Boots Alliance delivered impressive results amid its delisting countdown. The quarterly report for the period ending February 28 showed that the company's adjusted earnings per share reached $0.63, nearly 20% higher than Wall Street analysts' expectations of $0.53; revenue of $38.6 billion also surpassed the expected $38 billion.

UMC (UMC.US) March revenue increased by 9.31% year-on-year to NT$19.86 billion. UMC reported March revenue of NT$19.86 billion, a year-on-year increase of 9.31%. Year-to-date, the company's revenue has grown by 5.91%, reaching NT$57.86 billion.

Apollo warns: Tariff storm sweeps the globe, the international influence of the seven giants of US stocks becomes a double-edged sword. The seven giants of US stocks are being affected by the global economic slowdown and escalating international trade tensions. Nearly 50% of these companies' earnings come from overseas, a proportion significantly higher than the 41% for S&P 500 constituents. Apollo Global Management stated that this international influence makes the seven giants more vulnerable to shocks amid challenges in the global market. In many countries outside the United States, trade accounts for a large share of GDP, meaning that the ongoing trade war is expected to have a more severe impact on foreign economies. Companies with substantial international revenue sources (like the seven giants) will be more severely affected.

Trump's tariff storm hits, American consumers rush to buy Apple (AAPL.US) iPhones. The Trump administration's threat to impose large-scale new tariffs has led to a sharp drop in Apple's stock price but has also brought short-term benefits: consumers flocked to retail stores to purchase iPhones. Employees at Apple stores across the United States reported that stores were packed with customers over the weekend, as shoppers worried that prices would rise significantly after tariffs were imposed. The iPhone is Apple's best-selling and most important product, with most iPhones manufactured in China, which will face a 54% tariff. Insiders revealed that sales at Apple’s US retail stores last weekend were higher than in previous years, at least in some major markets. Apple will announce its second fiscal quarter results on May 1, and CEO Tim Cook and CFO Kevan Parekh will take this opportunity to discuss the anticipated impact of tariffs.

After a 33% drop, Broadcom (AVGO.US) plans to repurchase up to $10 billion in stock. Semiconductor company Broadcom announced a stock repurchase plan of up to $10 billion, effective until December 31, 2025. The company stated that the repurchase may occur through various means, including open market or private negotiations. Broadcom has recently faced significant risks from trade tensions, high valuations, and concentrated revenue, leading to a recent sell-off that has made it a poor investment. Year-to-date, Broadcom has accumulated a nearly 33% decline. The company's reliance on a single market and revenue from Apple (AAPL.US), combined with competitive threats, has exacerbated its vulnerability in a turbulent market. With competitors like MediaTek developing, Broadcom's custom ASIC chip business faces risks that further weaken its growth prospects

Important Economic Data and Event Forecast

Beijing time 20:55: U.S. Redbook Commercial Retail Sales Year-on-Year (%) for the week ending March 31.

Next day Beijing time 04:30: U.S. API Crude Oil Inventory Change (10,000 barrels) for the week ending April 4.

Next day Beijing time 00:00: EIA releases the Monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook report.

Next day Beijing time 02:00: 2027 FOMC voting member and San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly participates in a dialogue event titled "Federal Reserve Economic Outlook and Work."