Has the plunge stopped, and have U.S. stocks hit the bottom? Monday's "seven-minute surge" was a "live drill."

Overnight, the U.S. stock market experienced a "seven-minute surge" driven by a false news report. Although the rally eventually retreated, the brief rebound revealed many signals and served as a "field test" for the market's bottoming conditions.

On Monday, a message circulated online suggesting that the Trump administration was considering suspending tariffs for 90 days, triggering a frenzied reaction in the market, with U.S. stocks soaring by approximately $2.5 trillion in just seven minutes. However, when White House Press Secretary Caroline Levitt called it "fake news," the rally quickly reversed.

More dramatically, despite Trump’s subsequent threats of additional tariffs, the market did not experience further significant declines.

During this period, the U.S. stock market showcased a thrilling "roller coaster" performance, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average fluctuating by a record 2,595 points from its intraday low to high, while the S&P 500 index briefly accumulated a drop of over 20% in four days. The Nasdaq managed to close higher, but the S&P and Dow still ended with four consecutive declines.

Analysts believe that in the short term, the perplexing and "quantum state" of Trump may cause the stock market to stabilize after the sharp decline. In the medium to long term, a true market reversal requires changing the narrative that tariffs will trigger an economic recession, with potential triggering factors including Trump making concessions on trade, other countries making concessions on trade, or intervention from the Federal Reserve.

The "Quantum State" of Trump Keeps the Stock Market Stable

Bloomberg analysis states that the overnight performance exposed the highly "binary" results of Trump's global trade war policy: if he maintains tariffs as stated, the economy may quickly shrink, and the S&P 500 index could enter a bear market; but if tariffs are lifted, the economy could potentially grow again, and the stock market may return to historical highs.

However, what troubles the market is the chaotic signals coming from within the U.S. government: some cabinet members claim to be negotiating with 50 or even 70 countries, while White House trade advisor Navarro states that "there is no room for negotiation."

Moreover, Trump's own statements have also been perplexing. On Monday afternoon, he stated, "Tariffs can be permanent, and we can also negotiate because, besides tariffs, we have other issues to resolve."

These mixed messages have left traders confused, making portfolio management exceptionally difficult, as the market could either continue to plummet due to panic or miss a rebound due to a policy shift.

Rebound May Be Sharp but Sustainability Is Questionable

The Wall Street Journal analysis pointed out that the overnight performance was a "live test" of potential rebound triggering factors.

The market quickly rebounded due to the false news, and despite the White House refuting it and Trump further threatening tariffs, it hardly triggered any further market decline. This asymmetric reaction reveals a key fact: buyers are ready to buy heavily at any sign of tariff easing, while sellers are no longer panic-selling even in the face of worse tariff conditions.This indicates that the market may be ready to rebound.**

Currently, there are indeed many signals suggesting that the market is approaching a bottom, such as investor sentiment nearing extreme pessimism, with bearish sentiment reaching levels seen when the stock market bottomed in 2008. Institutional investor sentiment has also plummeted, as they flock to U.S. Treasury bonds for safety and purchase a large number of put options. Hedge funds are also aggressively reducing leverage.

Analysts believe that due to the extreme tension in investor sentiment, once a rebound is triggered, the magnitude could be very large. Historical data shows that after experiencing a similar scale of two-day declines, the stock market typically performs positively in the following month.

However, The Wall Street Journal warns that this rebound may not necessarily be sustainable. Stunning short-term rebounds often occur in bear markets, but these rebounds leave little noticeable trace in the long-term downtrend charts. The "dead cat bounce" in November 2008 saw the S&P 500 index rise 27% in the following two months, but it plummeted nearly a third again by March 2009 before truly bottoming out.

Analysis points out that a real market reversal requires a change in the narrative that tariffs will trigger an economic recession, and at least one of three potential triggering factors must occur:

1. Trump concedes on trade positions, as he has ample reason to mitigate the impact of tariffs and can package it as reasonable or even a victory;
2. Other countries concede on trade positions, reducing the intensity of the global trade war;
3. The Federal Reserve intervenes by cutting interest rates or purchasing risk assets to boost the market and the economy.

However, The Wall Street Journal believes that the Federal Reserve may cut rates as the economy slows, but will not do more out of consideration for maintaining policy independence. Additionally, this week's earnings season may bring more warnings from CEOs about the damage from tariffs, which could also trigger further selling.

Overall, current prices have reflected quite a bit of bad news. Brave investors can cautiously start to re-enter the market—provided they recognize that if tariffs persist and ultimately lead to an economic recession, the stock market is likely to decline further.