7 minutes gave birth to a $2.5 trillion surge! Rumors of tariff delays once ignited the U.S. stock market, but the market has fallen into a state of uncertainty about the future

According to Zhitong Finance APP, in the U.S. stock market on Monday, a rumor lasting 7 minutes caused a rapid rebound in the stock market, as investors mistakenly believed that President Donald Trump would suspend tariffs for 90 days, leading to a frenzy of stock price increases. However, they soon realized the nature of the rumor and ceased this behavior. Meanwhile, investors did not return to the frenzied selling wave seen earlier that day or over the weekend. For the remainder of Monday, major U.S. stock indices fluctuated significantly between gains and losses, with the market caught in a stalemate.

Part of the reason is that this event exposed the polarization of potential outcomes as Trump advances the global trade war. If he maintains tariffs as he claims, the U.S. economy could quickly shrink, and the S&P 500 index might enter a bear market. But if tariffs are lifted, the U.S. economy would grow further, and the stock market would reach new historical highs.

Ross Gerber, CEO of Gerber Kawasaki Wealth and Investment Management, stated, "There is no doubt that if Trump wakes up tomorrow and says, 'I've decided not to do this,' the market will quickly rebound to new highs."

Monday's situation indicated that just the rumor of delaying the implementation of tariffs added $2.5 trillion to the market capitalization of U.S. stocks. For investors who pulled out during the S&P 500's 10% drop over two days last weekend, missing such a massive increase is a terrifying prospect.

But what if Trump continues to maintain tariffs? The stock market could enter a bear market before any signs of relief appear, making it difficult for investors to expect a reversal in policy.

Worse still, the messages conveyed by the government are contradictory. Some cabinet members stated that the U.S. is negotiating with 50 or even 70 countries, while White House trade advisor Peter Navarro claimed there is no room for negotiation.

Trump's own statements have also added to the confusion. He stated on Monday afternoon, "Permanent tariffs can be set, and negotiations can take place because we have other demands besides tariffs."

This chaotic situation has left traders feeling perplexed. Alex Yang, chief investment strategist at Mapsignals, said, "Typically, I profit from exploiting this market chaos, but this time is different because the root of the problem is different. If such policies take effect and persist for years, it will fundamentally change the landscape of U.S. stocks."

This makes balancing portfolios difficult, as the likelihood of being caught in panic selling and missing out on the upward momentum from a shift in tariff policy seems equally high. The result may be that investors' behaviors need to be adjusted.

Brent Schutte, chief investment officer at Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management, stated, "Historically, the buy-the-dip strategy has been effective, and I believe it will continue to be so in the future."

However, Schutte pointed out that in trading, the president's policy unpredictability has replaced the Federal Reserve as the most significant influencing factor. He expects Trump will not provide clear policy direction in the short term, nor will it be as clear as the Fed's adjustments to interest rates He said, "The cycle of quick profits may have been extended. The reason is that the Federal Reserve used to be the market's backstop, but now they are no longer playing that role in advance. I believe there is no longer such a thing as a 'Federal Reserve put option' (an expectation that investors believe the Federal Reserve will take measures to prevent a significant decline in the stock market), and people have become accustomed to this expectation, and I feel there is currently no 'Trump put option.'"

However, Trump is almost the sole instigator of recent market turmoil, which has led some traders to hope that he could calm market volatility.

Rob Konzo, CEO of Wealth Alliance, stated, "The extreme policies implemented by the government have led to a three-standard-deviation event (referring to a significant event with a very low probability of occurrence)." He also added that if Trump announces any progress on tariff issues, especially concerning countries with the highest tariffs, the market could soar significantly.

Konzo said, "This is not a systemic issue; it is essentially a man-made volatility factor. This gives investors, at least professional investors, some encouragement. Perhaps it is time to take advantage of this opportunity; clearly, one should not panic."

The political prospects for the Republican Party may also prompt them to make policy shifts favorable to the market. If voters are concerned about an economic recession and feel angry about a roughly 20% drop in investment wealth within a few days, then the Republican Party's seats in the 2026 midterm elections may be at risk.

Yang stated, "If you crash the stock market and push us into a severe stagflation-type recession, then you will know that if prices soar, it will cost you power."

After Trump's election, Gerber began to allocate his portfolio more conservatively to guard against potential downturn losses while preparing for possible upswings.

He said, "There are also opportunities in this chaotic situation, especially if you are a long-term shareholder and fundamentally believe that these policies will soon reverse, then there are plenty of opportunities to invest in stocks. The key is to focus on changes in economic fundamentals while not being disturbed by external noise."