Former JPMorgan analyst: Trump has begun to realize he has fundamentally lost and will concede under pressure

Former U.S. President Donald Trump insists he will never change the trade policies that have caused turmoil in global markets, but former JPMorgan strategist Marko Kolanovic believes that Trump will concede under pressure and is nearing that point.

Media reports indicate that Kolanovic, known for his steadfast bearish views over the past few years, stated that the "Trump put" position is around 4,800 points for the S&P 500 index, approximately 300 points lower than the current trading level. The index approached that level during intraday trading on Monday, and then rebounded sharply due to market rumors that Trump was considering suspending tariffs on certain countries for 90 days, but the stock market retreated after the White House denied the rumors.

In an interview, Kolanovic said,

“He is starting to realize that he has basically lost; just look at his body language and objectively observe what is happening around him—we are getting close to that 'Trump put' level.”

On Monday, global stock markets experienced severe volatility in the wake of Trump's announcement of increased tariffs last Wednesday, with the S&P 500 index fluctuating more than eight percentage points in a single day, the largest since the pandemic bear market in 2020. Although it closed down only 0.2% that day, over the previous two trading days, the market value had evaporated by more than $5 trillion.

Kolanovic said,

“As everyone says, this is a clown show that really needs to end quickly, because it is not only bad for the market and the economy, but also detrimental to Trump himself.”

On Sunday, Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One that he did not know what would happen in the market and insisted that the goal of the tariffs was to completely eliminate the bilateral trade deficit. On Monday, Trump threatened to impose an additional 50% import tax on Chinese goods while preparing to negotiate with Japan and Israel.

The logic of the "Trump put" is that the U.S. president views the stock market and the economy as a report card for his administration; once the market drops too severely, he will change direction. This "put" represents the index level at which he might intervene, similar to the protective mechanisms of options in financial markets. Kolanovic said,

“Trump can say he doesn’t care about the market, but the market drives the economy.”

Kolanovic drew Wall Street's attention last summer by predicting a market crash amid the AI boom over the past two years and then suddenly leaving JPMorgan. Although his prediction was early, it now seems to be validated. He has not announced his next steps, but his candid comments about the market on various social media platforms are attracting more and more followers.

Kolanovic expects that the market is currently nearing the end of the "first phase" of this round of sell-off, which was primarily triggered by initial tariff news and concerns about economic growth, leading to a rapid collapse of momentum. The second phase may arrive when there are clear signs of recession in economic data and corporate earnings.

He noted that unlike other market crashes he experienced during his Wall Street career—such as the sell-off during the pandemic and the 2008 global financial crisis—this time is different because it is entirely triggered by one person and can also be resolved by that person:

"This crash is a man-made problem, and it is caused by just one person."