Multiple photovoltaic industry professionals respond to the impact of U.S. tariffs

Affected by the U.S. government's imposition of tariffs and other factors, both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks plummeted significantly after the market opened on April 7. Photovoltaic listed companies were also not spared, with stock prices generally falling sharply. By the end of the day, in Hong Kong stocks, GCL TECH fell 23.16%, XINYI SOLAR fell 19.53%; in A-shares, Dongfang Risheng fell 18.88%, Trina Solar fell 17.72%, JinkoSolar fell 14.31%, and LONGi Green Energy, JA Solar, and others closed at the daily limit down.

"The market trend today has become distorted, and the decline in the photovoltaic sector is also influenced by systemic panic." Regarding the impact of the new U.S. tariff policy on the photovoltaic industry, Securities Times reporters consulted multiple industry insiders, industry association personnel, and industry experts. Many believe that the new tariff policy will have little impact on the photovoltaic industry.

For this judgment, industry insiders provided the basis for their assessment—China's photovoltaic product export channels to the U.S. have already been blocked, and both Chinese-made and Southeast Asian-made photovoltaic products have faced high tariff barriers from the U.S. The newly implemented tariffs will not cause direct impacts.

"Tariffs actually have a relatively limited impact on photovoltaics because there are no component products being sold directly to the U.S. from within the country. Chinese companies originally exported to the U.S. through Southeast Asia, but due to double anti-dumping restrictions in Southeast Asia, now the main sales in the U.S. market are completed by local component factories—including subsidiaries or joint ventures of Chinese companies invested in the U.S.," said a leader from a frontline photovoltaic company.

In addition, some industry insiders reported that the U.S. photovoltaic market adds about 50GW of new capacity annually, and there has not yet been any indication that the new tariffs will negatively impact global new photovoltaic demand.

"Our company has no business in the U.S. The Chinese photovoltaic industry has been entangled with the U.S. over trade issues like double anti-dumping for many years and has accumulated a lot of experience. In the face of new tariffs, companies should not be too flustered," said one photovoltaic industry insider. Another industry insider believes that although trade restrictions surrounding photovoltaics still exist, the new tariffs will not compound and will not have a significant direct impact, and there is currently no visible negative impact on the overall global photovoltaic demand.

In addition to the relatively optimistic expectations mentioned above, several industry insiders also expressed the view that potential impacts should not be ignored: "The short-term impact is difficult to judge; we need to let the dust settle a bit."

"This is a reconstruction of the global trade order, and the impact will not be small. Moreover, countries are still in the process of negotiation, so the short-term impact is difficult to comment on," said another representative from a leading manufacturer. If photovoltaics are subjected to additional ultra-high tariffs, then in the competition of electricity generation costs between photovoltaics and U.S. natural gas, the development of photovoltaics may not be optimistic. Additionally, apart from the new tariffs, the U.S. renewable energy subsidy policy may also face adjustments. If both factors combine, it will be very challenging for the photovoltaic industry.

Regarding the possibility of adjustments to U.S. renewable energy subsidy policies, another interviewed industry insider also confirmed: "After Trump took office, the U.S. will definitely roll back its support policies for renewable energy, and this is expected within the industry." In addition, industry insiders have also reported to reporters that the new round of tariffs will indeed have some impact on the supply chain costs of photovoltaic products exported to the United States.

It is worth mentioning that there is still debate about the impact of this round of tariffs on photovoltaic products exported to the United States from Southeast Asia, and opinions within the industry are not uniform. An analyst who wished to remain anonymous told reporters that China does not directly export photovoltaic products to the United States, but since the latest tariff rates imposed by the United States on Southeast Asia are also very high, this will affect this portion of products. The data provided shows that 70%-80% of the components imported by the United States come from Southeast Asia.

According to Lv Jinbiao, deputy director of the silicon industry expert group of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, due to the lack of alternative domestic capacity in the United States, components produced in Southeast Asia with relatively low tariff rates will still be exported to the United States. U.S. photovoltaic power station investors will bear the high tariff costs, while the installed capacity in the U.S. is expected to decline compared to previous expectations this year. The data he provided indicates that the direct anti-dumping and countervailing duty rates for the four Southeast Asian countries are relatively low, and combined with the new tariffs, the total tariff rate is around 50%-60%. Considering the export price of 0.8 RMB/W and the additional tariff of 0.4-0.48 RMB/W, the sales price of these components in the U.S. market reaches 1.2-1.28 RMB/W, which remains competitive compared to domestically integrated components in the United States.

According to SMM Shanghai Nonferrous Network's judgment, in recent years, the United States has continuously promoted the localization of photovoltaic module production, but is constrained by the incomplete domestic photovoltaic industry chain, with battery and component auxiliary materials mainly relying on imports, previously mostly from Southeast Asia. To promote the return of the industry, the U.S. has increased tariffs to raise trade barriers.

SMM believes that after this tariff adjustment, on the one hand, the cost of imported raw materials for U.S. photovoltaics has significantly increased, greatly reducing the economic viability of U.S. photovoltaic projects and affecting demand growth. On the other hand, for manufacturers primarily exporting to the United States, their business has been further impacted, but the economic viability of some low-tariff production areas has begun to stand out, and the photovoltaic industry chain layout outside of China is starting to be restructured.

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