U.S. Stock Outlook | Tariffs Trigger Recession Panic, Traders Bet on Five More Rate Cuts by the Federal Reserve This Year

1. As of April 7th (Monday) pre-market, the three major U.S. stock index futures have narrowed their declines. As of the time of writing, Dow futures are down 2.12%, S&P 500 futures are down 2.35%, and Nasdaq futures are down 2.64%.

1. As of the time of writing, the German DAX index is down 4.97%, the UK FTSE 100 index is down 4.56%, the French CAC 40 index is down 4.93%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 index is down 4.93%.

1. As of the time of writing, WTI crude oil is down 2.69%, priced at $60.32 per barrel. Brent crude oil is down 2.46%, priced at $63.97 per barrel.

Market News

Panic over recession escalates! Traders bet on five more rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year. As the U.S. government's tariff increases raise concerns about a global economic recession, the market is rapidly adjusting interest rate expectations. Traders currently expect the Federal Reserve to cut rates five more times this year. The overnight interest rate swap market shows that investors have bet on a 125 basis point rate cut by the end of the year, equivalent to five standard 25 basis point cuts. Just last week, the market had only fully digested expectations for three rate cuts. This drastic adjustment reflects that panic is spreading in global markets. U.S. President Trump showed no signs of backing down from the tough tariff policies announced last week, stating to reporters on Sunday night, "Forget about the market for now." Investors are frantically selling risk assets and buying bonds, causing yields to plummet. The Federal Reserve will hold a closed-door meeting of the Board of Governors on April 7th at 11:30 AM (Beijing time 11:30 PM).

U.S. March CPI/PPI will hint at the impending pain from Trump's tariffs. Overall inflation experienced by American households in March may have slightly decreased, but economists believe this relief is temporary following President Trump's tariff tsunami. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release March CPI data on Thursday, expected to rise slightly by 0.1%, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg, which would be the smallest increase since July. Core CPI, which excludes the often volatile food and energy costs, is a better indicator of underlying inflation and is expected to rise 0.3% from February and 3% year-on-year, marking the lowest annual growth rate since 2021. Economists may closely monitor March's commodity inflation, as it will help show how quickly the tariffs on goods from major Asian countries are impacting American consumers"Black Monday" is here! The tariff storm sweeps the globe, and global stock markets, copper, and oil collapse collectively. On Monday, global stock markets plummeted, copper and oil prices crashed, and risk aversion drove the yen higher, indicating increased market volatility as investors digest the impact of the tariff war initiated by U.S. President Donald Trump. S&P 500 futures fell by 4.4% on Monday, following the index's worst two-day drop since March 2020, with a market value evaporating by over $5 trillion. As traders sought safe havens, the yen and Swiss franc strengthened. International oil prices fell nearly 4%. Copper futures dropped by more than 8%, while gold futures opened lower before slightly rising. Wall Street's main fear gauge—the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index—jumped to around 50, above the usual level of 20 that indicates trader concerns.

Wall Street's die-hard fans "change their tune"! Ackman warns Trump: Pause the trade war, or the consequences will be dire! Bill Ackman, the hedge fund mogul who supported U.S. President Trump last year, issued a stern warning about the risks of the White House's tariff plans, stating that these plans could lead to an economic collapse and cause the greatest harm to Trump's supporters. He called for a 90-day pause on tariffs to allow time to formulate a more strategic trade policy. He stated, "Business is a confidence game. The president is losing the trust of global business leaders. The consequences will be severely negative for our country and for millions of citizens who support the president, especially low-income consumers who are already under significant economic pressure." Ackman posted several articles on social media platform X, stating that the U.S. "100%" supports Trump in fixing the unfavorable trade system for the U.S.

Just a week later! Goldman Sachs raises the probability of a U.S. recession to 45%: Tariffs lead to a sharp tightening of financial conditions. In its latest research report, Goldman Sachs stated that it has significantly raised the probability of the U.S. economy entering a recession in the next 12 months from the previous 35% to 45%, while lowering its GDP growth forecast for the fourth quarter of 2025 from 1.0% to just 0.5%. Notably, Goldman Sachs had just raised the probability of a U.S. recession from 20% to 35% the previous Monday, stating that the fundamentals of the U.S. economy are not as strong as in previous years. Goldman Sachs indicated that the reason for the increase in the probability of a U.S. recession is due to the Trump administration's tariff measures exceeding market expectations, leading to a sharp tightening of financial conditions and rising policy uncertainty, which has a greater suppressive effect on capital spending than previously anticipated.

Individual Stock News

Tesla (TSLA.US) plummets in pre-market trading, U.S. Commerce Secretary may face "embarrassment." On Monday, in pre-market trading, Tesla's stock price continued to decline, falling below the "forecast level" set by U.S. Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo. Amid a widespread crash in global stock markets, Tesla's stock price dropped over 6% in pre-market trading to $225.38. Raimondo stated in a Fox News interview on March 19 that viewers should buy the stock, claiming "it will never be this cheap again." (At that time, it was around $235.) The next day, Musk told Tesla employees that they should hold onto their shares. Before Tesla's stock price fell, Daniel Ives, an analyst at Wedbush Securities who was most bullish on Tesla, cut his target price by over 40%, citing Trump's trade policies and the brand crisis caused by MuskWeak sales of AI chips, Samsung Electronics (SSNLF.US) Q1 profit expected to decline by 21%. The world's largest memory chip manufacturer, Samsung Electronics, is set to announce its preliminary results for the first quarter on Tuesday. Affected by weak sales of artificial intelligence chips and ongoing losses in its foundry chip manufacturing business, Samsung is expected to achieve an operating profit of 5.2 trillion won (approximately $3.62 billion) in the January to March quarter, down from 6.6 trillion won in the same period last year, according to LSEG SmartEstimate data. LSEG data indicates that Samsung's chip division is expected to report an operating profit of 1.7 trillion won in the first quarter, compared to 1.9 trillion won in the same period last year. Samsung's mobile and network business profit is expected to be 3.7 trillion won, up from 3.5 trillion won in the same period last year, benefiting from increased smartphone shipments and a significant depreciation of the local currency leading to higher repatriated profits.

Toyota (TM.US) plans to increase its electric vehicle models to 15 by 2027, with annual production rising to 1 million units. Toyota Motor plans to independently develop about 15 electric vehicle models by 2027 and establish production bases across Japan, China, the Americas, and Southeast Asia. The world's largest automaker aims to increase electric vehicle production to approximately 1 million units by 2027, seven times the production in 2024. Currently, Toyota has independently developed 5 electric vehicle models, produced only in Japan and China. Reports indicate that expanding production to the United States, Thailand, and Argentina will help hedge against tariffs and foreign exchange risks while shortening delivery times. It is noted that among these 15 electric vehicles, some will be models under the Lexus luxury brand. Additionally, Toyota currently expects electric vehicle production to be around 800,000 units in 2026, nearly a 50% decrease from its initial plan.

Novartis (NVS.US) first-in-class new drug submitted for domestic listing. According to the CDE official website, Novartis' injection of inclisiran sodium for a new indication has been accepted for listing application. Based on clinical progress and public information, the Insight database speculates that this indication is for adult patients with atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) who are at moderate or low risk and have elevated low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) and have not received any lipid-lowering treatment. Inclisiran sodium is the world's first and currently the only small interfering RNA drug that lowers LDL-C, approved by the EU and FDA in 2020 and 2021, respectively, for the treatment of adult hypercholesterolemia and mixed dyslipidemia, demonstrating the therapeutic potential of small nucleic acid drugs in chronic disease.

Important Economic Data and Event Forecast

Beijing time 22:00: U.S. Conference Board Employment Trends Index for March.

Beijing time 23:30: U.S. April 7 six-month Treasury bill auction - total amount (in hundreds of millions).

Next day Beijing time 03:00: U.S. February Consumer Credit (in hundreds of millions).

Beijing time 22:30: Federal Reserve Governor Cook will speak on "Inflation Dynamics and the Phillips Curve."