Breakfast | Trump's tariff effective date is this week! "Black Monday" has arrived

Market Overview

Last Friday, despite non-farm data indicating strong U.S. employment, U.S. stocks plummeted again due to the escalation of the trade war on Thursday and Jerome Powell's speech on Friday failing to stabilize the market. U.S. stocks recorded their largest weekly decline since the pandemic peak, with the Nasdaq entering a technical bear market.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell more than 2,000 points in one day, the S&P 500 dropped nearly 6%, marking its largest decline in five years, and the Nasdaq fell 10% over the week. Tesla closed down 10%, leading the decline among the seven tech giants. The China concept index fell nearly 9%, with Alibaba dropping nearly 10%.

In early Monday trading in Asia, U.S. stock futures plummeted again, with S&P 500 futures down over 5%, Dow futures down over 4%, and Nasdaq 100 futures down more than 5%. Bitcoin, which had previously performed strongly, also saw significant selling, dropping below $79,000.

Key Focus This Week

In terms of major events, the U.S. "reciprocal tariffs" will take effect on the 9th, with China having already announced countermeasures, imposing a 34% tariff on U.S. goods starting on the 10th; Ukraine is reviewing the key points of the mineral agreement draft; and the Federal Reserve will release the minutes from the March monetary policy meeting.

In terms of data, attention will be on China's March CPI/PPI inflation, social financing, credit, and other financial data, as well as foreign exchange reserve data; U.S. CPI/PPI inflation data.

The Q1 earnings season for U.S. stocks is kicking off, with Wall Street investment banks being the first to release earnings reports, focusing on JP Morgan, Wells Fargo, Morgan Stanley, and BlackRock.

11 Arrows Fired, China's Countermeasures! Starting from April 10th at 12:00, a 34% tariff will be imposed on the U.S., and export controls on medium and heavy rare earths

Approved by the State Council of China, starting from April 10th, 2025, at 12:01, a tariff will be imposed on imported goods originating from the United States. A 34% tariff will be added to all imported goods from the U.S. on top of the current applicable tariff rates. The existing bonded and tax exemption policies remain unchanged, and the newly imposed tariffs will not be exempted.

Why can China be the first in the world to counter the "reciprocal tariffs"? According to Yu Yuantan, the U.S. negotiation strategy is based on the "leverage principle," which means controlling resources or demands that the other party urgently needs and forcing concessions through pressure. If any country subjected to "reciprocal" tariffs shows hesitation or even offers compromises in exchange for tariff reductions from the U.S., it is equivalent to handing over the "leverage" that the U.S. can use to exert pressure in negotiations.

The EU to Use "Trade Rocket Launcher" to Counter Trump's Tariffs, a Historic First, with Italy as a Key Obstacle

The EU's newly introduced anti-coercion tool ACI may be activated for the first time. Countries such as France, Germany, and Spain, which support the use of ACI, believe that only by targeting the service sectors that the U.S. heavily relies on can effective negotiation leverage be established.

Southeast Asia Hit Hard, Reluctant to "Retaliate"

Vietnam is actively communicating with Trump and has expressed a willingness to reduce tariffs to zero, Cambodia has promised to significantly cut its tariffs on U.S. goods, and Thailand has also quickly stated its willingness to engage in dialogue with the U.S. Southeast Asian countries hope to gain "preferential treatment" from the U.S. by proactively showing goodwill. However, is it effective not to retaliate? Singapore's Prime Minister Lawrence Wong delivered a thought-provoking speech:

Lawrence Wong stated that the implementation of the U.S. "reciprocal tariffs" marks the end of the era of rules-based globalization and free trade, equivalent to the U.S. completely abandoning the WTO framework. The likelihood of global trade friction erupting is rising, and small trade-dependent countries like Singapore will face the risk of being marginalized. Wong called on his fellow citizens to prepare psychologically for more shocks that may arise in the future

On Saturday, tens of thousands in Europe and America protested, targeting Trump and Musk

The radical tariff policies of the Trump administration have led to a global stock market evaporation of $6.6 trillion, severely damaging investors' 401k plans. People held "Let Go!" protests in over 1,000 cities worldwide, demanding the protection of social safety nets and economic stability. The sentiment against Tesla and Musk is rising, which may affect related investments.

On Saturday, tens of thousands of demonstrators erupted in large-scale protests across the United States and around the world, opposing various policies of the Trump administration. The protesters criticized a series of government policies, including radical trade tariffs, layoffs of federal employees, the deportation of legal immigrants, attacks on the transgender community, threats to invade Greenland, and Musk's government efficiency department.

This protest coincided with the formal implementation of Trump's announced comprehensive 10% tariffs, leading to a two-day sell-off on Wall Street, with the stock market's value evaporating by $6.6 trillion. Despite the significant market turmoil, Trump urged Americans on social media on Saturday to remain patient in what he called an "economic revolution," promising that "this is not easy, but the end result will be historic."

Musk publicly criticizes "tariff hawk" Navarro, calls for free trade, even zero tariffs in Europe and America

As this close ally of Trump begins to publicly question the White House's trade strategy, investors need to be wary of the internal divisions and policy uncertainties that the U.S. "economic restructuring" plan may face.

Rumors of resignation emerge, U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin "stands aside" on tariffs, Wall Street is shocked

According to media reports, several hedge fund managers and financial executives had contacted Mnuchin, hoping he could influence Trump on tariff issues. However, Mnuchin did not play a major role in tariff decision-making; he merely served to explain the impact of tariffs on the market and the economy during White House meetings. The market chaos has also caused internal tensions within the government, with officials focusing on whether U.S. stocks will experience a three-day decline on Monday.

"Big Mouth" Jim Cramer warns: "Black Monday" may repeat

On Saturday, veteran market commentator and CNBC host Jim Cramer issued a stern warning about the comprehensive tariff policy announced by Trump on April 2. He believes the market may repeat the 1987 "Black Monday" crash, and investors should closely monitor market movements on Monday. Although a strong employment report may provide some buffer, the escalation of the trade war has plunged global markets into a state of high panic.

U.S. Senate passes budget resolution, Trump's tax cut plan achieves "key breakthrough"

This budget resolution is a key mechanism to bypass Democratic obstruction. Its greatest strategic significance lies in unlocking the "budget reconciliation" mechanism, meaning the Republican Party can pass Trump's tax, border security, and military priority bills with a simple majority without Democratic support.

Trump announces another 75-day grace period for TikTok's "sell or be banned" law

According to Xinhua News Agency, U.S. President Trump announced on social media on the 4th that he would sign an executive order granting TikTok another 75-day grace period for the "sell or be banned" law. Trump stated that his administration has been working to push for an agreement to "save TikTok" and has "made significant progress," but more work is needed to reach an agreement ByteDance stated that the company is still in discussions with the U.S. government and has not reached any agreements, with significant differences remaining on many key issues. According to Chinese law, any agreement must go through the relevant review procedures.

Goldman Sachs Trader: Last Week's Madness Exceeded All Expectations

The market experienced the most severe sell-off since the pandemic began in 2020 last week, with Goldman Sachs traders warning that the market will continue to remain volatile, and the recent/medium-term lows may not have been seen yet.

• U.S. stocks plummeted for two days, with $6 trillion "vanishing into thin air," leaving nowhere to hide. "Things are developing too quickly, and many people feel confused, fearful, and angry." The implementation of tariffs seems to bring the economy closer to recession, with market panic reaching its highest point since the pandemic. Even seasoned Wall Street professionals are feeling the pressure of this moment, which may mark the beginning of the most turbulent and uncertain period for the market in years.
• After two days of global market declines, Margin Calls are ringing! Wall Street banks have begun to require their hedge fund clients to add collateral, as the value of their loan collateral, i.e., various assets held, has sharply decreased, putting the hedge fund industry under the most severe Margin Call pressure since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020.

Trump Calls for Quick Rate Cuts, Powell "Slaps Back": Tariffs Far Exceed Expectations, May Continue to Drive Inflation, Fed to Wait and See Before Acting

Powell stated:

The Federal Reserve's responsibility is to maintain stable long-term inflation expectations and ensure that one-time price increases do not become a persistent inflation problem. The Fed can fully wait until the situation is clearer before considering adjusting its policy stance; it is too early to judge the appropriate path for monetary policy now.

"The outlook is very uncertain," and the recently announced tariff increases "far exceed expectations," with the impact of tariffs on the economy potentially larger than anticipated.

Data still shows a robust economy, but uncertainty is pressuring it; uncertainty regarding White House policies will decrease over the next 12 months.

The Fed is waiting for the situation to clarify and does not need to rush to cut rates; now is a good opportunity for a step back from easing.

The housing market may be hit by tariffs.

I fully intend to serve out this term as Fed Chair.

Morgan Stanley Predicts: iPhone Prices May Soar, U.S. Tariff Policy Hits Apple's Supply Chain Hard

The tariffs imposed on China will increase Apple's costs by about $8.5 billion annually. If Apple passes the entire tariff cost onto consumers, the retail price of the iPhone 16 Pro Max in the U.S. will rise from the current $1,599 to $2,300. During Trump's first term, Apple began to push for supply chain diversification, but the Trump administration's plan to impose high "reciprocal tariffs" on Southeast Asian countries will undoubtedly hit Apple's supply chain hard.

"New Federal Reserve News Agency": Even with Trump's tariffs, Apple can still achieve higher profits through its global supply chain than with "Made in America" iPhones. Trump's tariffs will push the cost of iPhone components for Apple from $549 to $846. The issue is that Apple's sales in the U.S. market may not be as high as before