This week's key agenda: Tariff effective date, China-US inflation data, China financial data, Federal Reserve meeting minutes, Q1 earnings season begins

Overview of Major Financial Events from April 7 to April 13, all in Beijing Time:

In terms of major events, the United States' "reciprocal tariffs" will take effect on the 9th, and China has already announced countermeasures, imposing a 34% tariff on U.S. goods starting from the 10th; Ukraine is reviewing the key points of the mineral agreement draft; the Federal Reserve will release the minutes of the March monetary policy meeting; Google Cloud Next event; Hongmeng Zhixing's "Shangjie" brand launch; the 5th China International Consumer Products Expo; the world's first humanoid robot half marathon.

In terms of data, attention will be on China's March CPI/PPI inflation, social financing, credit and other financial data, as well as foreign exchange reserve data; U.S. CPI/PPI inflation data.

In terms of earnings reports, the Q1 earnings season officially kicks off, with A-shares led by Small Commodity City, and also focusing on the latest earnings reports from Changan Automobile and Cambricon. In the U.S. stock market, Wall Street investment banks will be the first to announce Q1 earnings, with attention on JP Morgan, Wells Fargo, Morgan Stanley, and BlackRock.

U.S. "Reciprocal Tariffs" Take Effect, China First to Counter, EU Plans to Use "Trade Rocket Launcher"

According to CCTV News, on April 2 local time, the U.S. announced a 10% "baseline tariff" on all countries, imposing higher personalized "reciprocal tariffs" on countries with the largest trade deficits with the U.S. The "reciprocal tariffs" will officially take effect on April 9.

China becomes the first country in the world to counter the "reciprocal tariffs." According to CCTV News, the Tariff Policy Committee of the State Council announced on April 4 that starting from 12:01 PM on April 10, 2025, tariffs will be imposed on imported goods originating from the United States. The details are as follows:

1. A 34% tariff will be imposed on all imported goods originating from the United States, based on the current applicable tariff rates.
2. The current bonded and tax exemption policies remain unchanged, and the newly imposed tariffs will not be exempted.
3. Goods that have been shipped from the place of origin before 12:01 PM on April 10, 2025, and imported between 12:01 PM on April 10, 2025, and 24:00 on May 13, 2025, will not be subject to the tariffs specified in this announcement.

The EU plans to historically use its "Anti-Coercion Instrument" (ACI), a "trade rocket launcher," for the first time, targeting U.S. service industry exports, such as the technology sector, to retaliate using the EU's anti-coercion tools The core goal of this motion is to use ACI to precisely target the service industry exports, which are seen as a key pillar of the U.S. economy.

According to a previous report by Xinhua News Agency, European Commission spokesperson Olov Gill stated on March 20 local time that the EU's counter-tariff measures on certain U.S. goods will be postponed to mid-April for unified implementation, rather than the originally planned two-phase implementation. The report mentioned that AFP cited a statement released by Gill, saying that the countermeasures announced by the EU on March 12 will all take effect in mid-April, "which will provide more time for discussions with the U.S. government."

Additionally, according to Xinhua News Agency, EU member states plan to vote on April 9 regarding countermeasures against the U.S. 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum. The UK government announced on the 3rd that it will initiate a month-long consultation process regarding retaliatory tariffs against the U.S. in response to recent trade restrictions on UK export goods.

China's Inflation, Financial, and Foreign Reserve Data

China's financial data for March, including social financing and credit, will be released intermittently from the 9th to the 15th. Earlier published data showed that the social financing scale increased by 2.23 trillion yuan in February, with new RMB loans of 1.01 trillion yuan and new RMB deposits of 4.42 trillion yuan, while the M2-M1 spread was 6.9%, further widening compared to the previous month.

China's CPI and PPI inflation for March will be announced on the morning of the 10th. Affected by the Lunar New Year falling in a different month, holidays, and fluctuations in the prices of some international commodities, China's CPI in February decreased by 0.7% year-on-year, while PPI fell by 2.2%. In addition, the latest foreign exchange reserve data will be released on the 7th.

U.S. March Inflation May Slightly Slow, Focus Shifts to the Transmission Speed of Trump's Tariffs

U.S. March CPI may see a slight decline; however, Trump's new round of tariff measures may soon trigger a new wave of inflationary pressure, exacerbating the Fed's dilemma.

According to economists surveyed by Bloomberg, the data to be released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics on Thursday is expected to show that the consumer price index (CPI) in March may only rise by 0.1% month-on-month, which would be the smallest increase since last July.

Meanwhile, the core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy costs, is expected to rise by 0.3% month-on-month and increase by 3% year-on-year. If achieved, this would be the slowest annual growth rate since 2021.

However, this "temporary breather" may be difficult to sustain. Wall Street has already sensed the risk—commodity inflation may have begun brewing before Trump announces comprehensive tariffs on April 2, as merchants may have already raised prices in advance.

Economists will closely monitor the March commodity inflation data, which will help indicate the speed at which the tariffs on imported goods are passed on to U.S. consumers.

Federal Reserve Monetary Policy Minutes, Focus on Officials' Views on Tariffs

It is worth noting that in the first two months of the year, the U.S. core CPI has shown signs that the long-term downward trend in inflation is stagnating. More concerning is that after Trump announced "reciprocal tariffs," Wall Street economists have raised their inflation expectations for this year while significantly lowering growth expectations.

This outlook has put Federal Reserve policymakers in a dilemma, as they need to curb price pressures on one hand while also guarding against the risk of a potential deterioration in the labor market on the other.

The minutes from the Federal Reserve's March policy meeting, released on Thursday, will provide more clues. In mid-March, the Federal Reserve kept the target range for the federal funds rate unchanged at 4.25%-4.5%, in line with market expectations. This marks the second consecutive monetary policy meeting where the Federal Reserve decided to pause interest rate cuts.

The latest minutes may reveal the Federal Reserve's level of concern regarding the "rise in short-term inflation expectations," as well as whether the "economic uncertainty" brought about by Trump's tariff policy is being considered as a reason to delay a policy shift.

In his first public statement following Trump's announcement of widespread reciprocal tariffs, Powell reiterated that the Federal Reserve needs to wait and see, and consider action only after the situation is clear. He pointed out that the new tariffs announced by Trump far exceeded expectations and could continue to push inflation higher, and the Fed needs to ensure that inflation expectations do not rise.

Market focus also includes clues regarding adjustments to the pace of balance sheet reduction. If the minutes indicate a dovish inclination, it may strengthen expectations for a rate cut in June; conversely, it would support the U.S. dollar and U.S. Treasury yields. The Federal Reserve will slow the pace of balance sheet reduction starting in April, marking the first adjustment since last June. From June 2022 to the end of last year, the Federal Reserve has cumulatively reduced its balance sheet by nearly $2 trillion.

Other Important Data, Meetings, and Events

Ukraine to Hear Key Points of Mineral Agreement Draft

According to reports from the Ukrainian National News Agency cited by CCTV, Ukrainian President Zelensky stated at a press conference that Ukraine has selected a law firm to represent it in negotiations with the United States regarding a mineral agreement. Zelensky mentioned that he will hold a meeting with the Ukrainian team early next week to hear the key points of the agreement draft, which will meet Ukraine's needs and reflect the "fairness" of the agreement.

Thai Princess Sirindhorn to Visit China

According to Xinhua News Agency, a spokesperson for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced on the 3rd that, at the invitation of the Chinese government, Her Royal Highness Princess Maha Chakri Sirindhorn of Thailand will visit China from April 7 to 13.

Google Cloud Next Event

From April 9 to 11, Google will hold its annual Google Cloud Next event. During this event, Google will announce the latest developments in its cloud services. Given that Google recently acquired Wiz, Morgan Stanley expects Google to focus on how Wiz integrates into the Google Cloud Platform (GCP) ecosystem, as well as the latest advancements in AI capabilities and the most widely used AI use cases in enterprises The Q1 Earnings Season Begins for China and the U.S.

In the A-share market, Small Commodity City will take the lead and disclose its earnings report on April 8. Jinling Mining, Skyworth Digital, Baobian Electric, Taiping Bird, Pinggao Electric, and Jucan Optoelectronics will also disclose their latest financial reports. Additionally, pay attention to the latest financial reports from Changan Automobile and Cambricon.

In the U.S. stock market, Wall Street investment banks will be the first to announce Q1 earnings, focusing on JP Morgan, Wells Fargo, Morgan Stanley, and BlackRock. In the Hong Kong stock market, there are currently no major companies scheduled to disclose new financial reports.

Tesla Officially Enters Saudi Arabia

According to Tesla's official website, the company will hold an opening press conference in Riyadh, the capital of Saudi Arabia, on April 10. Previously, Tesla had operations in other Middle Eastern countries but had not established a presence in Saudi Arabia. At the press conference, attendees will experience the future of autonomous driving through CyberCab and meet the humanoid robot Optimus.

Hongmeng Zhixing "Shangjie" Brand Launch

Hongmeng Zhixing's "Shangjie" brand is scheduled to be officially launched on April 10, during which more information about new brands and products will be released. Reports suggest that the first model of Shangjie will be based on the internal code-named "ES39" model under SAIC Roewe.

Wuling Technology Evolution Day to be Held on April 7

SAIC-GM-Wuling has officially announced that the Technology Evolution Day will be held on April 7, where Wuling will introduce the 27258-turn motor. Additionally, the Wuling Intelligent Driving Technology Matrix will be unveiled, along with multi-faceted five-needle testing of battery cells.

China Electronic Information Expo

The 13th China Electronic Information Expo (CITE 2025) will be held from April 9 to 11, 2025, at the Shenzhen Convention and Exhibition Center (Futian). As the opening exhibition of the electronic information industry, CITE will showcase the latest products and technologies in hot fields such as smart terminals, smart homes, intelligent robots, smart wearables, smart travel, low-altitude economy, e-sports, AR/VR, data infrastructure, data elements, large AI models, servers, CPU/GPU, data storage, new energy, integrated circuits, electronic components, and special electronic components.

2025 China Mobile Cloud Intelligence Conference

From April 10 to 11, 2025, the China Mobile Cloud Intelligence Conference, themed "From Cloud to Intelligence, Co-creating a New Ecosystem of Computing Network," will be held at the Suzhou International Expo Center.

OPPO Find X8 Series Launch, Focusing on Night Scene Portraits

OPPO has officially announced that it will hold a launch event for the new OPPO Find X8 series and mobile intelligent ecosystem products on April 10, 2025, during which the new OPPO Find X8 series smartphones will be unveiled.

Xiaomi Ecological Chain AI Terminal Innovation Seminar

On April 10, Xiaomi will hold an innovation seminar for AI terminals in its ecological chain in Chengdu, showcasing the latest AI product demos, expected to present a series of forward-looking smart hardware products.

Global 6G Technology and Industry Ecosystem Conference

The 2025 Global 6G Technology and Industry Ecosystem Conference (formerly the Global 6G Technology Conference) will be held from April 10 to 12 in Nanjing, with a parallel session on "6G Millimeter Wave and Terahertz Technology" scheduled for April 12 The 5th China International Consumer Products Expo Held in Hainan

From April 13 to 18, the 5th China International Consumer Products Expo will be held in Hainan Province. Slovakia will participate for the first time in the form of a national pavilion, and São Paulo, Brazil, will also organize a regional pavilion for the first time. The United Kingdom will serve as the guest of honor. This year's expo will also establish a guest province for the first time, with Beijing serving in this role.

The 10th China Science and Technology Finance Forum (Annual Meeting) Held in Beijing

On April 7, the 10th China Science and Technology Finance Forum (Annual Meeting) and the 7th China Financial 30 Scholars Academic Conference, jointly hosted by the China International Economic and Technical Cooperation Promotion Association, the China Business Enterprise Management Association, the National Financial Talent Service Center, and the China Science and Technology Finance Service Center, will be held in Beijing. This forum, themed "Gathering Wisdom to Build a New Future for Science and Technology Finance," will systematically summarize the achievements of reform, look ahead to innovative paths, inject new momentum into the development of science and technology finance with Chinese characteristics, and realize the service of financial talents for the high-tech industry.

MediaTek Dimensity Developer Conference

The MediaTek Dimensity Developer Conference 2025 (MDDC 2025) will be held on April 11 in Shenzhen, where the flagship 5G smart AI chip—Dimensity 9400+—will be launched.

Amazon Plans to Launch First Batch of 27 Satellites

Amazon plans to launch the first batch of 27 satellites for its satellite internet "Project Kuiper" on April 9, officially competing with SpaceX's "Starlink" satellite internet project. SpaceX launched the first batch of 60 "Starlink" satellites into space in May 2019 and has since deployed approximately 8,000 "Starlink" satellites.

World's First Humanoid Robot Half Marathon

On April 13, the Beijing Economic and Technological Development Zone (Yizhuang) will host the world's first humanoid robot half marathon, where humanoid robots will compete alongside human participants on a 21-kilometer track.

New Investment Opportunities

In the A-share market, there are no new stocks listed next week. On April 7, Kent Catalysts will open for online subscription. Founded in 2009, this high-tech enterprise mainly engages in the research, production, and sales of quaternary ammonium (quaternary) compound products. On April 8, Honggong Technology will also open for online subscription. Established in 2008, this national high-tech enterprise specializes in material handling automation.

In the Hong Kong and US stock markets, there will be one new stock listed each, namely Huiju Technology and Ruanyun Edai Tech.

A total of 22 new funds (A class, C class, and E class combined) were issued that week.