Tariffs far exceeded expectations, Nasdaq futures plummeted over 4% after hours, Apple fell over 7% after hours, U.S. Treasury bonds rebounded, and gold futures hit a new high for the fifth time

On Wednesday, before Trump announced the so-called reciprocal tariffs, the macro data released by the U.S. shattered the mainstream narrative about an impending economic recession. The ADP employment increase (especially in the manufacturing sector) surged significantly, and factory orders approached historical highs, causing the U.S. macro surprise index to rebound above zero, reaching a one-month high.

Notably, the strong data propelled "hard" data to its highest level since May 2024, while "soft" data remained at its lowest level since September 2024. Overall, this reduced market expectations for interest rate cuts, leading to a significant surge in U.S. Treasury yields during overnight trading from relatively low levels, with the 30-year Treasury yield rising 12 basis points from its intraday low.

According to CCTV, on April 2 local time, U.S. President Trump announced the imposition of so-called "reciprocal tariffs" on trade partners at the White House. Previously, several trade partners had indicated they would take countermeasures in response.

Trump signs two executive orders regarding the so-called "reciprocal tariffs" at the White House, announcing a 10% "minimum baseline tariff" on trade partners and imposing higher tariffs on certain trade partners. Trump's tariff plan could become the largest trade protectionist measure in 90 years.

The market reacted complexly; initially, risk asset prices soared due to the "better than expected" baseline tariffs, but then sharply declined when Trump presented specific tariff charts, indicating that investors' concerns about the actual impact outweighed expectations. The safe-haven property of gold re-emerged, with gold prices initially falling and then rising, while Bitcoin dropped more than 3% in less than an hour. New York copper futures were the biggest losers among commodities, with a decline of up to 4%.

Investors are worried that this move exacerbates the risk of a global trade war, further worsening the already sluggish U.S. economy, leading to a significant drop in U.S. stock index futures. By the end of trading in New York, S&P 500 futures fell 1.9%, and Nasdaq futures dropped 2.7%.

The opening of the U.S. stock market triggered panic buying, similar to the previous day, followed by selling pressure in the afternoon, with most sectors erasing all gains. In after-hours trading, stocks of companies with high import volumes were hit hard. Nike fell 6%. General Motors dropped 3%, and stocks that had been battered by tariff concerns over the past month continued to decline in after-hours trading. Meta has made three visits to the White House since January 20 to evade antitrust scrutiny.

The three major U.S. stock indices:

The S&P 500 index closed up 37.90 points, an increase of 0.67%. The Dow Jones closed up 235.36 points, an increase of 0.56%. The Nasdaq closed up 151.16 points, an increase of 0.87%.

The Nasdaq 100 index closed up 157.98 points, an increase of 0.82%, at 19,436.42 points. The Nasdaq Technology Market Capitalization Weighted Index closed up 1.11%, at 1,568.4590 points.

The Russell 2000 index closed up 0.02%, at 2,012.24 points.

The Fear Index VIX closed down 2.29%, at 21.77.

U.S. stock sector ETFs rose broadly:

The airline industry ETF rose over 2.4%, the consumer discretionary ETF rose 1.9%, and the biotechnology index ETF rose 1.89%.

The banking industry ETF, regional bank ETF, and internet stock index ETF rose between 1.5% and 1.1%.

The financial industry ETF, semiconductor ETF, and technology sector ETF rose at least over 0.7%, while the energy industry ETF rose 0.14%.

"Tech Seven Sisters":

The index of the seven tech giants in the U.S. (Magnificent 7) rose about 0.6%, at 147.15 points.

U.S. stocks closed mixed, with Tesla up 5.31%, Amazon up 2%, Apple and Nvidia up at most 0.31%, Google A down 0.02%, Microsoft down 0.04%, and Meta Platforms down 0.35%.

Chip stocks:

The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose 0.9%.

TSMC ADR rose 1.04%, AMD rose 0.18%.

After hours, Nuvia Semiconductor rose over 2.6%, Arm rose 2.18%, Texas Instruments, ASML ADR, Lam Research, and GlobalFoundries rose at least 1.1%.

AI concept stocks fell after hours:

Applovin, Palantir, and Tempus AI showed varying degrees of increase at the close but fell sharply after hours, with declines exceeding 6% from the closing prices.

Chinese concept stocks:

The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index initially closed down less than 0.1%.

Among ETFs, the Chinese Internet Index ETF (KWEB) closed down 0.2%, the China Technology Index ETF (CQQQ) closed up 0.3%, while the "China Dragon" Roundhill China Dragons ETF (DRAG) closed down 1.8%

Among the popular Chinese concept stocks, Xiaomi Group ADR initially fell 4.9%, Pony.ai dropped 4%, Pinduoduo and Alibaba fell 2%, and Nio dropped over 1%. Tencent ADR, JD.com, and Li Auto at least fell about 0.4%.

Yum China and XPeng rose by about 0.9% at most, New Oriental rose 1.5%, and Bilibili rose 1.6%.

Among other key stocks:

Berkshire Hathaway Class B shares, owned by Warren Buffett, rose 0.89%, setting a new closing historical high of $537.72; Class A shares rose 0.76%, setting a new closing historical high of $806,413.

The U.S. "Trump Tariff Losers" index rose 2.5%, with constituent stocks generally closing higher. Five Below rose 6.55%, ELF rose 5.67%, Wayfair rose 5.57%, and Gap rose 5.47%, leading the performance.

New stock Newsmax (NMAX) closed down 77.46%, at $52.52, with a market value evaporating over $23 billion in a single day.

European stock markets showed an overall downward trend, with most national indices experiencing varying degrees of decline, while only a few national indices rose. Among other European countries, Spain's IBEX 35 index rose 0.40%, after U.S. Secretary of State Rubio had a phone call with the country's foreign minister, discussing trade issues during a 30-minute conversation.

Pan-European stocks:

The pan-European STOXX 600 index closed down 0.50%, at 536.92 points.

The Eurozone STOXX 50 index closed down 0.31%, at 5303.95 points.

National indices:

The indices of Germany, France, Italy, the UK, and Denmark all fell, with the German index closing down 0.66%, and the Danish OMX Copenhagen 20 index closing down 1.72%.

Spain's IBEX 35 index rose 0.40%, following the phone call between U.S. Secretary of State Rubio and the country's foreign minister.

Sectors and stocks:

Most European automotive manufacturing concept stocks fell, with Faurecia down 6.80%, Volkswagen down 0.57%, and Continental, BMW, and Mercedes-Benz all closing down around 0.5%.

On Wednesday, the U.S. 10-year Treasury bond experienced intraday reversals. After the ADP non-farm employment report was released, it refreshed the day's low to 4.1080%, then continued to rebound, once refreshing the day's high to 4.2242%. After the announcement of U.S. tariff policies, it fell again to around 4.1307%.

U.S. Treasuries:

During the New York session, the yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury bond rose by 2.47 basis points, at 4.1936%. After the announcement of U.S. tariff policies, it fell again to around 4.1307%.

The yield on the two-year U.S. Treasury rose by 3.29 basis points to 3.9139%, trading intraday between 3.8419% and 3.9304%.

European Bonds:

At the end of the European session, the yield on the German 10-year government bond rose by 3.4 basis points to 2.721%, trading intraday within the range of 2.654% to 2.728%, mostly in a downward trend.

The yield on the two-year German bond rose by 1.6 basis points to 2.038%, trading intraday within the range of 1.982% to 2.045%.

The dollar weakened ahead of Trump's tariff announcement, with direct currency pairs showing varying degrees of appreciation due to the dollar's softness. After the tariff policy was announced, the dollar index fluctuated sharply. Canada is not on the reciprocal tariff list, and the U.S. will continue to exempt goods that meet USMCA requirements. As a result, the Canadian dollar strengthened during the New York session.

Dollar:

At the end of the New York session, the ICE dollar index fell by 0.41% to 103.830 points, trading within the range of 104.314 to 103.686 points.

The Bloomberg dollar index fell by 0.19% to 1270.84 points, trading within the range of 1273.81 to 1269.78 points.

Non-U.S. Currencies:

At the end of the New York session, the euro rose by 0.24% against the dollar to 1.0819. The euro fell by 0.22% against the pound to 0.8333 pounds.

The pound rose by 0.50% against the dollar to 1.2988.

The dollar fell by 0.08% against the Swiss franc to 0.8829, with little fluctuation during the day. The euro rose by 0.24% against the Swiss franc to 0.95605 francs.

Commodity currencies saw the Australian dollar fall by 0.13% against the dollar, the New Zealand dollar rise by 0.52% against the dollar, and the dollar fall by 0.42% against the Canadian dollar.

Yen:

The dollar fell by 0.53% against the yen to 148.73 yen.

The euro fell by 0.26% against the yen to 161.04 yen. The pound fell by 0.02% against the yen to 193.319 yen.

Offshore Renminbi:

At the end of the New York session, the offshore renminbi (CNH) against the dollar was reported at 7.3345 yuan at 04:59 Beijing time, down 381 points from Tuesday's New York close, trading overall within the range of 7.2947 to 7.3346 yuan during the day.

Cryptocurrency:

At the end of the New York session, the CME Bitcoin futures BTC main contract rose by 0.69% to $85,940.00, having surged to $89,020.00 at 04:16 Beijing time CME Ethereum futures DCR main contract fell 1.77%, reported at $1885.50, having surged to $1966.00 at 04:15.

During the US trading session, crude oil futures and natural gas futures both closed higher. Following Trump's confirmation of the so-called reciprocal tariffs, with the US imposing a 10% reciprocal tariff on Saudi Arabia, crude oil futures prices subsequently fell by 1.0%, reported at $70.38/barrel.

Crude Oil:

In the New York session, WTI May crude oil futures closed up $0.51, an increase of over 0.71%, reported at $71.71/barrel, before prices fell in the Asia-Pacific session.

Natural Gas:

NYMEX May natural gas futures closed up over 2.63%, reported at $4.0550 per million British thermal units.

Tariffs exceeded expectations, with spot gold initially falling before rising, and futures gold hitting new highs. New York copper futures saw the largest decline among commodities, with a drop of up to 4%. London tin closed up over 1%, reaching a new high since 2022.

Gold:

At the end of trading in New York, spot gold rose 0.72%, reported at $3135.76/ounce, having briefly dipped to $3105.23 before rising to $3143.49.

COMEX gold futures June contract rose 1.41%, reported at $3190.30/ounce, having briefly risen to $3201.60; August contract rose 1.44%, reported at $3216.90, rising to $3226.00 at 04:29.

Silver:

• Spot silver rose 0.55%, reported at $33.88/ounce, later rising to $34.1449.

COMEX silver futures rose 2.01%, reported at $35.000/ounce, later rising to $35.155.

Other Metals:

COMEX copper futures fell 0.03%, reported at $5.0310/pound, rising to $5.1450 at 04:16, before falling to $4.9850 at 04:28.

LME tin closed up $442, an increase of nearly 1.18%, reported at $37921/ton, having risen to $38190 in the early Asia-Pacific session on April 2, continuing to reach the highest level since mid-May 2022.

LME copper futures closed up $8, reported at $9700/ton. LME aluminum futures closed down $16, reported at $2490/ton. LME zinc futures closed down $42, reported at $2780/ton