U.S. Stock Outlook | Countdown to Trump's Tariff Statement, Tesla Q1 Delivery Volume Announcement Imminent

Pre-Market Market Trends

1. As of April 2 (Wednesday), U.S. stock index futures are all down before the market opens. As of the time of writing, Dow futures are down 0.50%, S&P 500 futures are down 0.57%, and Nasdaq futures are down 0.70%.

1. As of the time of writing, the German DAX index is down 1.22%, the UK FTSE 100 index is down 0.73%, the French CAC 40 index is down 0.58%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 index is down 0.69%.

1. As of the time of writing, WTI crude oil is down 0.56%, priced at $70.80 per barrel. Brent crude oil is down 0.64%, priced at $74.01 per barrel.

Market News

Countdown to Trump's Tariff Announcement. According to media reports citing informed sources, Trump's review of the plan to impose reciprocal tariffs has entered its final stage, with his team still finalizing the scale and scope of the new tariffs to be announced on Wednesday afternoon Eastern Time. It is reported that as the deadline approaches, Trump's team is still fiercely negotiating among three tariff proposals. The first proposal: impose a 10% or 20% tariff on various countries (implement a more tailored reciprocal tariff plan), depending on their tariffs and non-tariff barriers on U.S. goods; the second proposal: impose a uniform 20% tariff on all countries; the third proposal: impose comprehensive tariffs on certain countries (more targeted), but the tariffs may not be as high as the 20% uniform tariff proposal.

Trump's "Liberation Day" is approaching, "Seven Giants" under short-term pressure! Wedbush warns of shadow over AI investment prospects. Led by Daniel Ives, Wedbush analysts stated: "The tariff pressures faced by various industries will suppress economic demand and push up prices... In turn, this will prompt corporate executives to delay expenditures, including AI projects. Theoretically, Trump's tariff policy could alter the short-term growth trajectory of AI investment (with limited long-term impact), and the current stock market volatility reflects this concern." Ives added: "Although there are currently no signs of expenditure shrinkage in related fields... this policy suspense has triggered a risk-averse sentiment in global markets towards the U.S. tech sector, with many investors choosing to wait and see or shift to European and Asian markets until Trump's new policy rules are clarified. It is important to emphasize that anyone with a basic education in economics understands that the cost of tariffs will ultimately be borne by consumers... This will further suppress consumer confidence and spending, leading to a comprehensive slowdown in corporate capital expenditures, digital advertising investments, and more—this chain reaction is what the market is most worried about The three giants of Wall Street cut their S&P 500 index target points, but firmly believe that a "first suppression and then rise" market will come. Stock market strategists from Goldman Sachs, Société Générale, and Yardeni Research have all lowered their year-end targets for the S&P 500 index at the beginning of the second quarter. Yardeni currently expects the S&P 500 index to close at 6000 points by the end of the year, significantly down from the previous forecast of 6400 points; David Kostin, a stock market strategist from Goldman Sachs, has drastically cut his year-end target for the S&P 500 index from 6200 points to around 5700 points; strategists Manish Kabra and Charles de Boissieu from Société Générale have lowered their target from 6750 points to 6400 points. However, well-known investment institutions on Wall Street, including these three, generally believe that tariffs are ultimately just a prelude to a downward adjustment in the U.S. stock market and do not affect the long-term bull market of U.S. stocks. Kabra and de Boissieu from Société Générale stated, "We expect investor confidence to recover before the end of the year. Referring to the experience of the tariff battle in 2018, although there may be a significant drop during the liberation week, the S&P 500 index is expected to achieve a gain in the second quarter."

Federal Reserve's Goolsbee warns: Tariff policy may trigger a dual shrinkage of consumption and investment. Chicago Fed President Goolsbee warned that a slowdown in consumer spending or a contraction in business investment due to the uncertainty of tariff policy could have negative consequences. Goolsbee stated, "If consumers stop spending due to uncertainty or concerns about the future, and businesses also stop investing, that would be a bit problematic." He pointed out that theoretically, the impact of a one-time tariff on prices should be temporary, but he added that tariffs could have more lasting effects. He indicated that this could be caused by retaliatory tariffs and the fact that some taxes may affect so-called intermediate products, such as components ultimately used in domestically produced goods. The Chicago Fed President stated that he still expects interest rates to decline in the next 12 to 18 months. He also mentioned that although surveys of consumers and businesses indicate that the economic situation is weakening, hard data still shows that U.S. economic growth remains robust.

Moody's warns of a 40% probability of U.S. economic recession! Multiple data points are "disturbing." Moody's Chief Economist Mark Zandi believes that due to the tariffs imposed by the Trump administration and cuts to government employees, the probability of the U.S. economy falling into recession this year has risen to 40%. He stated that this probability was only 15% at the beginning of 2025, but recent declines in consumer confidence, slowing spending, and high inflation have forced adjustments to the forecast. Zandi warned, "The escalating trade war and tariff cuts are the reasons behind all this, coupled with last week's announcement of a significant increase in auto import tariffs and the upcoming reciprocal tariffs, the situation is sure to worsen." Zandi added, "Currently, the probability of recession is still below 50%, as the layoff rate is still low and employment income growth is robust. The non-farm payroll data for March, to be released this Friday, will be a key indicator." This economist pointed out, "If new jobs are below 100,000, it will raise concerns, while exceeding 200,000 could alleviate anxiety."

Individual Stock News

Tesla (TSLA.US) Q1 delivery volume announcement imminent, will Musk's "political involvement" lead to a sales collapse? Analysts generally predict that Tesla's first-quarter delivery volume will be around 377,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 8.5% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of over 20%. If Tesla's first-quarter delivery volume is 355,000 units or less, it will mark the worst year-on-year performance since 2017. This is a significant test for the electric vehicle manufacturer, as CEO Elon Musk's role in the Trump administration has harmed the Tesla brand and sparked protests calling for "Tesla to be delisted," leading to a decline in sales in multiple markets. As of the time of writing, Tesla's stock fell over 2% in pre-market trading on Wednesday.

Tesla's March sales in China fell 11.5% year-on-year. Data shows that Tesla's wholesale sales of passenger vehicles in China in March were 78,800 units, a year-on-year decrease of 11.5%, but significantly higher than February's 30,700 units.

Meta (META.US) AI research head departs, executive vacancy may impact AI ambitions. The vice president leading Meta's Fundamental AI Research group (FAIR), Yann LeCun, announced his departure on Tuesday. LeCun's team is responsible for Meta's AI research, focusing on areas such as speech translation, image recognition technology, and open-source large language models like Llama. The department also explores the development of what Meta calls "advanced machine intelligence," or human-level intelligence in machines. LeCun's departure may make it more challenging for Meta to compete with rivals like OpenAI, Anthropic, and Elon Musk's xAI in AI products and talent. Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg has prioritized AI for the company and stated in January that the company would invest up to $65 billion in related projects this year.

Meme stock craze making a comeback? Conservative media company Newsmax (NMAX.US) skyrockets 22 times in two days post-IPO. Newsmax's stock price surged nearly 180% on the second day of trading, reaching $233 per share, with a total market capitalization of nearly $30 billion. The stock has risen a cumulative 2,230% in just two days since its IPO, which had an issuance price of $10 per share. Trump has given exclusive interviews to Newsmax multiple times, the latest being last week. Meanwhile, the Trump administration has also made adjustments to the White House press corps that covers presidential affairs, with reporters from the Associated Press and Reuters being removed from the press corps list, benefiting Newsmax, which staunchly supports Trump. However, as of the time of writing, Newsmax's stock fell over 28% in pre-market trading on Wednesday.

Is there a "grab orders" drama unfolding in the payment industry? Reports suggest Visa (V.US) is spending $100 million to secure a credit card partnership with Apple (AAPL.US). According to insiders, global payment giant Visa has offered Apple a staggering $100 million to secure exclusive partnership rights for Apple's credit card, aiming to take it away from its longtime rival Mastercard (MA.US). This move marks a bold action by Visa in its efforts to secure the Apple Card payment network and offers prepayments typically reserved for the largest credit card programs Industry insiders analyze that this is equivalent to prepaying Apple for potential earnings over the next few years, indicating Visa's determination to secure the Apple Card. In fact, Visa is not the only hunter eyeing this cake. American Express (AXP.US) has been reported to be taking a dual approach, aiming to be both an issuing bank and a payment network; traditional issuing institutions like Barclays (BCS.US) and Synchrony Financial (SYF.US) are also actively engaging; even JP Morgan (JPM.US) has been frequently in contact with Apple since last year. This battle for payment gateways has clearly become a "gladiatorial arena" for financial giants.

Important Economic Data and Event Forecast

Beijing time 20:15 U.S. March ADP Employment Change

Beijing time 22:00 U.S. February Durable Goods Orders MoM Revision

Beijing time 22:00 U.S. February Factory Orders MoM

Beijing time the next day 03:00 U.S. President Trump announces details of reciprocal tariffs and industry-specific tariffs

Beijing time the next day 04:30 Federal Reserve Governor Quarles speaks on inflation expectations