Gene Munster Warns Tesla's March Delivery Number Will Be 'Ugly' But June Will Be Uglier
Gene Munster of Deepwater Asset Management warns that Tesla's March delivery numbers will be disappointing, predicting around 355,000 units, down 8% year-over-year, and below analyst estimates. He anticipates June will be even worse, calling 2025 a "throwaway year" for Tesla. Despite short-term challenges, Munster remains optimistic about Tesla's long-term prospects due to its cash position and competitive advantages in AI. Tesla's stock closed at $268.46, down 29.22% year-to-date, amid concerns over CEO Elon Musk's political involvement affecting brand perception.
Deepwater Asset Management‘s Gene Munster is bracing for disappointing Tesla Inc. TSLA delivery numbers when the electric vehicle maker reports first-quarter figures on Wednesday, warning investors that the coming months could be even more challenging.
What Happened: “The March number is likely going to be ugly. The June will likely be worse. Then things begin to slowly improve,” Munster wrote Tuesday on X, signaling a dramatic reversal for a company that once projected 20-30% growth.
The Tesla bull anticipates first-quarter deliveries around 355,000 units, down approximately 8% year-over-year, significantly below analyst consensus estimates of 377,592. His projection aligns with prediction markets, where Kalshi traders give only a 56% probability of Tesla exceeding 350,000 deliveries.
— Gene Munster (@munster_gene) April 1, 2025Final thoughts going into tomorrow's $TSLA numbers.
➡️ The March number is likely going to be ugly. The June will likely be worse. Then things begin to slowly improve. https://t.co/UYrHByjVKf
“I feel 35% less wealthy over the past few months since the Tesla numbers started to come down,” Munster told CNBC’s “Closing Bell,” characterizing 2025 as a “throwaway year” for the automaker.
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Why It Matters: Despite the near-term pessimism, Munster maintains his long-term optimism, citing Tesla’s “physical AI” competitive advantage through initiatives like Optimus robots and robotaxis. “Ultimately, I think investors are going to get behind that,” he said, noting Tesla’s $37 billion cash position provides ample runway.
The anticipated delivery decline comes amid concerns about CEO Elon Musk‘s increasing political involvement affecting brand perception. A recent Benzinga poll revealed 53% of respondents would “never own a Tesla,” highlighting potential demand challenges as the company looks toward recovery later this year.
Price Action: Tesla Inc. closed at $268.46 on Tuesday, up 3.59% for the day. In after-hours trading, the stock dipped 0.14% to $268.08. Year to date, Tesla’s stock has declined by 29.22%.
Tesla stock has shown strong momentum compared to rivals Nio Inc. NIO and Lucid Group Inc. LCID. However, it lags behind Rivian Automotive Inc. RIVN in short- to long-term price trends, according to Benzinga Edge Stock Ranking. Sign up to learn more.
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Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.