What kind of valuation can be assigned to the robotics sector now?

Since the beginning of the year, robots and Deepseek have jointly stepped out of the main line of the industry. Currently, the three major types of traditional robots are designed for specific scenarios and applications. For example, industrial robots are mainly used in automotive, electronics, home appliances, and other industrial production; service robots are aimed at fields such as medical services, goods delivery, and public services; special robots are primarily used in scenarios like deep-sea exploration and emergency rescue. The robots traded in the stock market are new humanoid robots, which have a body structure and movement patterns similar to humans, as well as stronger perception and computing capabilities, enabling them to perform more tasks in the future, potentially linking to various aspects of human life.

Tesla was the earliest to work on humanoid robots. In 2021, it released the concept of the humanoid robot Optimus. Then, in May 2023, it publicly showcased the latest humanoid robot model, capable of synchronized walking and object grasping by multiple robots. Moving forward to 2024 and 2025, continuous upgrades and updates are expected. According to Musk, production of 50,000 to 100,000 humanoid robots is planned for 2025, with production reaching 500,000 to 1 million units by 2027, exceeding market expectations. Therefore, before 2024, the humanoid robots traded in the market are mainly linked to Tesla. However, starting in 2024, Huawei's humanoid robots are also beginning to spread, including Cyrus starting to recruit for robot positions and collaborating with related robot companies, which has led the market to begin trading on the possibility of Huawei's humanoid robots going from 0 to 1.

The reason for the explosion of the robot market this year is mainly due to the gradual formation of consensus in policies and industries. On one hand, policies are indeed supportive, with various departments and regions in China issuing policies related to humanoid robots. On the other hand, the industry is making rapid progress. In addition to Tesla, some Chinese automotive companies, robot companies, and internet technology companies are also beginning to layout the robot industry, including UBTECH, ZhiYuan, Fourier, XPeng, Xiaomi, etc. These companies already have related robot products and are gradually starting mass production. The market believes that 2025 will be the year of mass production for humanoid robots, potentially achieving the diffusion of application scenarios, technological iteration and optimization, as well as cost reduction, among other positive resonances.

Although humanoid robots are developing rapidly, there are still many technical challenges, including high hardware costs, software limitations, and AI not yet supporting humanoid robots in all scenarios. Additionally, the industry currently lacks comprehensive laws, regulations, and industry standards Therefore, the first scenarios where humanoid robots will be implemented are likely to be in manufacturing factories, where the complexity of the scene is clearly lower than that of the consumer end, making commercialization more likely to be realized first.

If we compare the market for robots to that of new energy vehicles, the market assigns different valuation levels to related companies at different stages of industrial development. Historically, when the penetration rate of new energy vehicles was below 5%, the valuation of related automotive parts companies could reach 30-50 times. When the penetration rate of new energy vehicles increased to between 5% and 40%, related companies could enjoy a valuation of 20-30 times. When the penetration rate of new energy vehicles exceeded 40%, the valuation of related companies was at 15-20 times. Therefore, in the early stages of industrial development, when the penetration rate is very low, related companies will be in a process of valuation uplift. Currently, we are still in the early stages of an explosion; even if Elon Musk produces 1 million humanoid robots in 2027, the total global sales of humanoid robots will still be between 4-5 million, which is still in a phase of comprehensive application on the B-end, beginning to penetrate the C-end. At this time, it is reasonable for related parts companies to enjoy a valuation of 30-50 times.

Speaking of sectors, it mainly refers to the manufacturing sector related to humanoid robot components. Tesla's humanoid robots include structures such as the torso, limbs, and hands. The limbs require actuators, including linear actuators and rotary actuators. The actuators will also involve motors, reducers, ball screws, sensors, and other components. If we calculate the value of each component based on the future production of humanoid robots, there is still a relatively broad market space. This is also the main anchor for the current market's valuation uplift.

Overall, humanoid robots are an important industrial trend for the future. Under this trend, related companies will make strategic bets, including automotive companies, both new and old robotics companies, internet companies, and so on. Currently, the market expects that under the guidance of policies and industrial trends, 2025 will mark the beginning of mass production for humanoid robots. If we compare the robot market to the previous new energy vehicle market, in the early stages of industrial development, when the penetration rate is below 5%, it is reasonable for related parts companies to be assigned a valuation of 30-50 times. Of course, this also depends on the market's risk appetite; if risks emerge later, valuations may be suppressed. The fields related to humanoid robot components include actuator assemblies, reducers, ball screws, sensors, and so on, all of which will benefit. However, the current price increase is too high, and it is not advisable to chase high prices Source: Tianfeng International, Original Title: "Robot Special | What Valuation Can the Robot Sector Currently Support?"

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