Breakfast | Musk: Now is a good opportunity to "buy the dip" on Tesla!

Market Overview

Under the impact of tariffs, the S&P opened lower but rose sharply, managing to close up, while the Dow Jones also reversed three consecutive declines. The S&P fell nearly 6% in March, marking its largest monthly drop in over two years, and dropped 4.6% in the first quarter, recording the worst performance compared to other global indices in over thirty years. Both the S&P and NASDAQ saw their largest quarterly declines in nearly three years. Apple rebounded nearly 2%, while Tesla fell nearly 8% during the day before closing down nearly 2%. In the first quarter, Tesla dropped nearly 36%, leading the decline among the seven major tech giants, while Nvidia fell for five consecutive days, down nearly 20% for the entire quarter. The China concept index saw two consecutive declines, but surged 13% in the first quarter, with Alibaba rising 56% for the entire quarter.

Germany is set for historic fiscal expansion, with the yield on ten-year German bonds rebounding by over 30 basis points in March; the yield on two-year U.S. Treasury bonds hit a nearly three-week low during the day, marking three consecutive months of decline.

The U.S. dollar index turned up after hitting a new low in over a week, still declining for three consecutive months, down nearly 4% in the first quarter; the euro rose over 4% in the first quarter, marking its largest quarterly increase in two years. Bitcoin fell below the 82,000 mark but rebounded by over $2,000 at one point, yet still dropped over 10% in the first quarter.

Gold rose over 1% during the day, hitting a new historical high for three consecutive days, and increased nearly 20% in the first quarter, marking its largest quarterly gain in thirty-eight years. Oil rebounded to a new high in over two months, rising over 3% at one point, and has increased for two consecutive quarters.

During the Asian session, A-shares closed down across the board, with the computing power sector rising in the afternoon. The Hang Seng Index fell 2%, chip stocks collectively adjusted, and the 30-year Treasury futures turned up.

Tesla's Stock Price Deep V, Dropped 7.5% at One Point, Closed Down 1.7%

Musk: DOGE has cost me a huge price, now is a good opportunity to "buy the dip" on Tesla. Since Musk took a key position in the Trump administration, Tesla's stock price has dropped 45% from its peak. Musk stated that this has caused significant losses to his personal wealth, but he believes that in the long run, Tesla's stock still has potential for growth, and now may be a good time to buy.

Tesla's stock price fell 7.5% at one point during the day, with growing concerns about growth, as Wall Street expects Q1 delivery numbers to be the worst in two years. Analysts are increasingly pessimistic: Visible Alpha estimates Tesla's Q1 deliveries to be about 373,000 vehicles, a year-on-year decline of 3.6%. Tesla shareholders expect deliveries to be as low as 350,000, while Deutsche Bank estimates deliveries to be between 340,000 and 350,000. On Wednesday, Tesla will announce the latest delivery data.

Last weekend, a global protest called "Tesla Takedown" erupted simultaneously in the U.S., Canada, and Europe. Approximately 200 Tesla showrooms worldwide became targets of the protests, accounting for nearly half of Tesla's 438 showrooms, with thousands participating in the protests.

Apple Rose Nearly 3% at One Point, Apple Intelligence Global Launch

Apple's Apple Intelligence is now globally available, supporting Simplified Chinese and other languages, and Vision Pro can also utilize AI. Apple's AI features are now available to more users worldwide, with new support for Simplified Chinese and other languages, usable in almost all regions globally. Apple has also integrated Apple Intelligence into Vision Pro, equipped with a series of innovative AI tools. Apple's stock price led the gains among the "seven major tech giants."

Major Merger in the Chip Industry! Taiwan's United Microelectronics Soars 20%, Rumored to Be Merging with GlobalFoundries

A significant merger in the chip industry may be on the horizon, with GlobalFoundries rumored to be considering a merger, causing United Microelectronics to soar 20%. If the deal is finalized, it will create a larger company with production spanning the Americas, Asia, and Europe, headquartered in the United States, enhancing its ability to compete for mature process orders. The merged entity would become the second-largest pure foundry in the world, after TSMC. Following the news, GlobalFoundries briefly rose over 3%.

It remains unclear whether GlobalFoundries will directly propose an acquisition of United Microelectronics. After the news of a potential merger between the two companies broke, United Microelectronics' American Depositary Shares (UMC) listed on the New York Stock Exchange surged in early trading, with the intraday increase quickly expanding from over 3% to 20.1% within about ten minutes, before giving back some gains, ending the early session with an increase of less than 15%.

GlobalFoundries (GFS), which had initially dropped about 3%, saw its stock price jump in early trading, reaching a daily high with an increase of about 3.1%, but quickly erased those gains and returned to a downward trend, ending the early session down about 2%, before slightly turning positive at the close.

Novo Nordisk Plummets 27% This Month

This month has been the worst since the internet bubble burst, resulting in a significant loss of market value for the European stock leader. Novo Nordisk's stock price has plummeted over 27% this month, marking the worst single-month record since 2002. Since June of last year, Novo Nordisk has faced a series of negative developments, including lower-than-expected demand for weight-loss drugs Wegovy and Ozempic, disappointing mid-term trial results for the oral weight-loss drug monlunabant, and poor data performance for another injectable drug in development, CagriSema. However, Wall Street remains generally optimistic about the stock.

Huawei's Revenue in 2024 Reaches 862.1 Billion Yuan

Research and development expenses reached 179.7 billion yuan, with Ascend cloud services achieving sixfold growth, and smart automotive solutions turning profitable for the first time. In 2024, Huawei Cloud achieved sales revenue of 68.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.4%, with overseas public cloud revenue growing over 50%. Ascend AI cloud services realized sixfold growth. In the AI sector, Huawei Cloud launched the AI-Native cloud infrastructure architecture CloudMatrix, providing efficient, stable, and reliable AI computing power for large model training and inference. The Pangu large model ranks first in market share in government affairs, industry, and finance, and leads in the healthcare, pharmaceuticals, meteorology, and automotive sectors, dominating the Chinese industry large model market.

Lao Pu Gold's Net Profit in 2024 Increases 254% Year-on-Year, Revenue Grows 166%

Lao Pu Gold's revenue and profit have surged, with operating income reaching 8.506 billion yuan, a staggering increase of 167.5% compared to 3.179 billion yuan in 2023; net profit reached 1.473 billion yuan, an increase of 253.9%. Sales revenue from gold products accounted for 99.9%, with same-store revenue growing over 120.9%.

Trump: May Announce Tariff Details on the Evening of April 1 or April 2

On March 31 local time, U.S. President Trump stated that he might announce tariff details on the evening of April 1 or April 2. Trump also mentioned that the U.S. would act "very friendly" compared to other countries, and in some cases, tariffs could be significantly reduced Subsequently, Trump discussed other topics and then returned to the tariff issue, adding, "The tariff plan has been formulated." According to a statement from the White House earlier on the 31st, Trump is expected to make a decision and announce the details of the relevant tariff policy on April 2.

Is Trump "talking out of both sides of his mouth"? Reports indicate that the White House is once again considering "comprehensive high tariffs," with gold hitting new highs. Although Trump has repeatedly downplayed the strength of the so-called "reciprocal tariff" plan on April 2, media reports suggest that Trump has recently shifted to a tougher stance, urging his team to design a broader and higher-rate plan. One option is a global tariff of up to 20%, covering nearly all U.S. trading partners.

Trump stated in an interview that he is considering seeking a third term

and hinted that there are ways to circumvent the constitutional ban. Analysts say that changing the existing law that "elected presidents cannot serve more than two terms" requires a very high political threshold, and Trump may also consider endorsing Vice President Mike Pence to run in the next election or "other methods."

Goldman Sachs significantly raised its expectations for U.S. tariffs and recession, predicting that the "reciprocal tariff rate" will average 15%! Considering the upcoming announcement of the "reciprocal tariff" policy, Goldman Sachs has raised the probability of a U.S. economic recession over the next 12 months from the previous 20% to 35%, and increased its forecast for the average U.S. tariff rate in 2025 from 10 percentage points to 15 percentage points. As the economic outlook worsens, Goldman Sachs also expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates three times this year.

Goldman Sachs traders: Macroeconomic factors are beginning to interfere with micro performance guidance, and AI investments are unlikely to yield significant results in the short term. Goldman Sachs believes that the current decline in tech stocks is no longer solely attributed to heavy positions or high valuations, but is caused by multiple factors, such as the uncertainty of the DOGE trillion-dollar reduction plan, declining consumer confidence, and the intensified impact of tariffs on cyclical stocks. Although the fundamentals of tech stocks have not changed much in the past week or two, investor sentiment has shifted to a more conservative stance, also considering the impact of slowing macroeconomic growth on the earnings season.

Morgan Stanley: "April 2" is not the "end of bad news" for U.S. stocks. Morgan Stanley suggests focusing on two key questions: whether the announcement can clarify the tariff policy, turning it from unknown to known; and whether the increase in tariffs will further worsen the economic outlook.

Iran: Refuses to negotiate directly with the U.S., but indirect negotiations remain open

Iran has clarified its position in a letter to U.S. President Trump, emphasizing that Iran still insists it will not engage in direct negotiations under "maximum pressure" and military threats, but past indirect negotiations can continue.

NBC reported on the 30th that U.S. President Trump threatened during a phone interview that "if Iran does not reach an agreement with the U.S. on its nuclear issues, the U.S. will bomb Iran" and impose "secondary tariffs" on its related products.

China's official manufacturing PMI for March is 50.5, the fastest manufacturing expansion in a year

The non-manufacturing business activity index for March is 50.8, up 0.4 from the previous month, indicating a faster pace of non-manufacturing expansion Institutions believe that the rise in new orders has become the biggest driving factor for the manufacturing PMI in March, mainly driven by policies that boost demand in certain industries, and the "export grabbing" continues. However, the performance of the two major price indicators is relatively weak, and the weak imports reveal a "shortcoming" in domestic demand. In addition, there is still a sense of wait-and-see among enterprises.

Nanjing Introduces Seven New Policies, Including Comprehensive Cancellation of Restrictions on the Sale of Commercial Housing

The seven policies related to housing in Nanjing involve the cancellation of sales restrictions, a new version of the old-for-new exchange program, housing ticket placement, and policies regarding provident funds