Morgan Stanley: "April 2" is not the "end of negative news" for U.S. stocks

The effective date of Trump's "reciprocal tariffs" is approaching, but some analysts believe that April 2 may not bring clear answers for the market, and investors should not view it as the moment the "shoe drops."

On March 31, Michael Zezas, the global fixed income research chief at Morgan Stanley, pointed out in a recent report that the date of April 2 has long been circled on investors' calendars as the date President Trump promised to announce the scale and details of global tariffs. The government has stated that fair trade relations are the goal, with the principle of reciprocity guiding the implementation of tariffs, "but beyond that, there is little known about what this policy will entail."

"This is not reassuring for the investors we communicate with, who are confused by announcements, negotiations, delays, and constantly changing implementation levels of tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and certain key products," Zezas wrote. "This reciprocal tariff policy could affect a wide range of products and countries, and the government seems to still be considering whether tariffs need to take into account foreign consumption taxes and non-tariff barriers."

Faced with numerous variables, Morgan Stanley believes that choosing a single path to guide investment strategy is meaningless, but instead recommends waiting for April 2 to answer two key questions: whether the announcement can clarify tariff policy, moving it from unknown to known; and whether the increase in tariffs is significant enough to further worsen the economic outlook.

Morgan Stanley stated that by April 2, the market may not obtain all the clear information, but may receive some usable clues. Morgan Stanley analyzed the possibilities and impacts of different scenarios:

• High clarity and small tariff increase: If the announcement on April 2 provides high clarity, and the tariff increase is small, with no further plans to expand tariffs, then the additional blow to the economic outlook may be relatively small. However, the tariffs already in place are expected to exert pressure on the economy, and even if there are no new significant tariffs on April 2, U.S. economic growth is still expected to slow significantly this year.

• Low clarity but commitment to significantly increase tariffs: If the announcement on April 2 lacks specificity but commits to significantly increasing tariffs, this will not clearly worsen the already below-consensus economic growth expectations. The lack of specificity may imply the possibility of alleviating tariff increases through negotiations.

• High clarity and significant tariff increase: If investors receive clear information about a significant increase in tariffs on April 2, this will be most favorable for fixed income relative to stocks. This may include tariff increases beyond the tariff differentials, considering foreign consumption taxes and non-tariff barriers, as well as clearly indicating that the threshold for negotiating with trade partners to alleviate new actions is very high. In this case, U.S. economic growth expectations will be significantly below consensus, and stock prices may decline