Zhitong Decision Reference | Performance is an Important Factor in Determining Price Fluctuations

[Editor’s Market View]

In the context of a global stock market slump, Hong Kong stocks also did not escape last week. The Hang Seng Index fell below the 20-day moving average.

The U.S. PCE rose 2.8% year-on-year and 0.4% month-on-month, exceeding the Federal Reserve's 2% target, intensifying market concerns about the persistence of inflation. At the same time, the University of Michigan's consumer confidence index for March also declined, leading to a significant drop in U.S. stocks last Friday.

The market is most worried about the impending tariffs, with Trump stating that any tariff agreement will be reached after the measures take effect on April 2. It remains to be seen how reciprocal tariffs will be implemented; overall, the impact on China is relatively limited, while the effects on other countries are more significant.

Domestically, due to the annual report performance period, the tolerance level during this phase is relatively low, and performance is a key factor determining price fluctuations.

The market's development relies on policy stimulation. Over the weekend, China Construction Bank, Bank of Communications, and Postal Savings Bank announced plans for private placements to introduce strategic investments from the Ministry of Finance, totaling 520 billion yuan. The aim is to enhance banks' ability to serve the real economy. The key point is that major shareholders are offering a 10% premium for the private placements, which significantly boosts confidence. Bank stocks are expected to be in high demand.

The State Administration for Market Regulation: will legally review the transactions of Cheung Kong and the ports. We will see if the market agrees with the logic of port value reassessment.

A relevant official from the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission stated at the China Electric Vehicle 100 Forum that the next step will be strategic restructuring of central state-owned enterprises in the automotive sector. This is a proactive response to automotive tariffs at the national level.

These actions indicate that the state is shifting from a passive to an active stance, releasing positive signals. It remains to be seen how the capital side will respond.

In terms of hot topics, there are differing views in the venture capital circle regarding humanoid robots. From a future perspective, robots are undoubtedly an irreversible trend; the current lack of breakthroughs in key technologies does not mean there is no investment value. One should take a long-term view.

The State Council: Cross-border e-commerce has great potential and strong driving effects, and efforts should be made to expand the new round of cross-border e-commerce comprehensive pilot zones. Overseas expansion remains a focus. At the same time, promoting the upgrade of agricultural machinery and equipment is essential, making full use of subsidies for the purchase and application of agricultural machinery. Agricultural machinery may see stimulation.

[This Week's Golden Stock]

Jiangxi Copper (00358)

Jiangxi Copper is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of approximately 6.962 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 7.03%; the net profit excluding non-recurring gains and losses is expected to be approximately 8.287 billion yuan, a substantial year-on-year increase of 54.22%, setting a historical best performance. In addition, the company's operating revenue for 2024 is expected to reach 520.928 billion yuan, with basic earnings per share of 2.01 yuan, and it plans to distribute a dividend of 0.70 yuan per share (including tax).

Both performance and dividends have reached new highs. In addition to impressive financial results, Jiangxi Copper also made significant business progress in 2024. The company successfully advanced several key projects, including the expansion of ultra-high voltage cross-linked cables in Jiangxi and the smooth production of the first phase of copper foil in East China. In the smelting sector, projects such as the comprehensive recovery of complex polymetallic ores at Hengbang Weihai and the 150,000 tons/year niacin project at Wengfu Chemical were completed on schedule; in the mining sector, the tungsten mine project in Kazakhstan was completed and achieved trial production within the year. Additionally, several mining and smelting projects, including the 5,000 tons/day open-pit mining at Yinshan Mining, slag selection in Mexico, and capacity expansion and renovation at Jiangxi Copper Guoxing, are being accelerated to continuously stimulate new economic growth for the company In terms of technological innovation, the company obtained 198 patent authorizations throughout the year, including 30 invention patents. At the same time, the company actively lays out overseas resources and deepens cooperation with international partners. Looking ahead to 2025, the company expects that the tight global copper concentrate supply will support copper prices, and demand in emerging fields will continue to focus on energy storage, new energy, photovoltaics, and other areas. These factors provide favorable conditions for the future development of Jiangxi Copper.

【Industry Observation】

ByteDance's Volcano Engine is expected to hold the AIoT Smart Change Wave Conference in Shenzhen on April 2, focusing on the integration of large models with robots and AIOT products such as watches, glasses, and smart companions, promoting industrial chain upgrades and growth. AI hardware is expected to welcome a new opportunity. ByteDance's leadership and expansion in AI hardware are likely to form a strong catalyst for industry development, accelerating the landing of related products.

In addition, Q2 is expected to approach a concentrated promotional window for edge-side hardware, with several edge-side conferences scheduled to be held, mainly summarized as follows: April 2 Volcano Engine AIoT Smart Change Wave Conference; April 23 Meta Glasses Presentation; April-May Xiaomi Glasses Release; May Volcano Engine FORCE Power Conference.

As more manufacturers such as ByteDance, Samsung, and operators enter the edge-side hardware market, industry catalysis continues to increase. Computing power + edge-side applications are accelerating development, and the core industrial chain is expected to benefit fully.

2025 is a key year for humanoid robots and AI servers, accompanied by the entry of major manufacturers and the landing and selection of smart application products such as AI glasses and AI toys. The attention and product scale in this track are expected to see significant improvement. Key links in the industrial chain, such as foundries, SoC, optical solution providers, and component solution providers, are expected to benefit fully. Key stocks in Hong Kong include Sunny Optical (02382) and AAC Technologies (02018).

【Data Monitoring】

According to data released by the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, the total number of open contracts for the Hang Seng Index futures (April) is 101,158, with a net open interest of 25,540 contracts. The settlement date for the Hang Seng Index futures is April 29, 2024.

From the distribution of bullish and bearish positions in the Hang Seng Index at the 23,427 point level, the dense area of bullish certificates below is close to the central axis, indicating that there is sustained short-selling momentum for the Hang Seng Index.

【Editor's Remarks】

The Hang Seng Index has retreated for three consecutive weeks. Last week, from an industry perspective, information technology, banking, and insurance saw the largest declines (with information technology dropping over 5%), while defensive sectors such as healthcare, materials, and transportation saw slight increases.

Currently, the first phase of valuation repair, driven by sentiment and expectations, is basically complete. Investor divergence is increasing, and whether subsequent earnings can take over will directly determine whether further upward space can be opened. Focus on performance reports, with particular attention to companies that increase both revenue and profit [Disclaimer] This VIP information product is for communication and discussion purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice. Unauthorized reproduction is strictly prohibited. For more quality information and data products, please log in to the [Zhitong Finance] APP for inquiries.