"Liberation Day" and non-farm data arrive simultaneously, US stocks face a big test this week!

According to Zhitong Finance APP, U.S. stocks continue to hover near their year-to-date lows, with President Trump's latest tariff statement and concerns about the U.S. economic outlook putting downward pressure on the stock market during the last full trading week of the first quarter.

In the past five trading days, the S&P 500 index has fallen nearly 3%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has declined about 2%, and the tech-heavy NASDAQ Composite Index has led the decline with a drop of nearly 4%.

In the coming week, as "Liberation Day" on April 2 approaches, Trump's tariff policy will become the market focus. The president is expected to announce reciprocal tariff measures on that day, and investors are closely watching the specific tax rate levels.

Subsequently, market attention will shift to the labor market, with the March non-farm payroll report set to be released on Friday. Private sector employment data, job vacancy numbers, and indicators of service and manufacturing activity will also be closely monitored. This week is expected to be relatively quiet in terms of corporate earnings reports.

The Tariff Impact Not to Be Ignored

Trump's highly anticipated tariff statement is expected to be released on Wednesday. An increasing number of Wall Street institutions believe that the market may not be fully prepared for the impending shock. A team of economists at Goldman Sachs pointed out that the market may face downside risks that exceed expectations.

Goldman Sachs' chief political economist Alec Phillips revealed that the latest market survey shows investors generally expect a reciprocal tariff rate of 9 percentage points, but the team believes the initial proposed rate may be higher, potentially close to twice the market expectation.

Phillips wrote in the report: "Government officials have made it clear that the upcoming tax rate will serve as a basis for negotiations, prompting authorities to propose higher rates in the initial stage. There have been precedents for tariff measures against Canada and Mexico—both times high rates were implemented initially and then largely or completely withdrawn days later."

Last week, Trump announced a 25% tariff on imported cars, which has provided the market with a "starter." Ajay Rajadhyaksha, chairman of Barclays Global Research, stated that this move "is more significant than the market currently perceives."

Rajadhyaksha noted: "This sends a policy signal. At least in my view, it suggests that April 2 may bring a shock that the market cannot underestimate. We may face negative surprises."

Key Employment Report

As economic data shows signs of slowing growth and persistent inflation, the tariff turmoil further exacerbates consumer concerns. The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis reported last Friday that February's price increase exceeded expectations, while consumer spending growth fell short of expectations.

Less than two hours after the data was released, the University of Michigan's consumer confidence survey showed that inflation expectations for the next year surged to 5% in March, the highest level since November 2022. These dynamics led to a sharp decline in the stock market, with the S&P 500 index dropping about 2% just on Friday Citigroup's U.S. equity strategist Scott Chronert pointed out in a client report that Friday's market movements reflect that "stagflation" expectations are being further priced in—meaning persistent high inflation accompanied by slowing economic growth.

Currently, economists generally believe that the economy is merely slowing down from the super trend growth of the past few years and has not yet entered a recession. A key basis for this judgment is that the labor market is cooling rather than collapsing. Upcoming employment data will reveal the pace of the slowdown in the job market.

The March non-farm payroll report, scheduled to be released this Friday morning, is expected to show an increase of 135,000 jobs, down from 151,000 in February, with the unemployment rate expected to remain unchanged at 4.1%.

Michael Gapen, Chief U.S. Economist at Morgan Stanley, wrote in a preview report: "The risks of this report may be asymmetrically distributed. Strong job growth is needed to alleviate concerns about a sharp economic slowdown, while data slightly below consensus could exacerbate those worries."

Weak Earnings Guidance

Against the backdrop of rising tariff discussions, the number of publicly traded companies issuing negative earnings guidance has increased unusually. FactSet data shows that among the 107 S&P 500 constituents that provided first-quarter guidance, 68 issued negative guidance, higher than the five-year average of 57 and the ten-year average of 62 (negative guidance refers to companies announcing earnings per share expectations below the market consensus value prior to the announcement).

This phenomenon confirms Wall Street's overly optimistic expectations for 2025. As the first-quarter earnings season officially begins on April 11, the core question for the market will be whether analysts and the overall market have sufficiently lowered expectations as companies face headwinds from tariffs