Forget "April 2nd," this day is more critical for the market

Recently, the market's attention has been highly focused on "April 2," the day when the United States may escalate import tariffs.

However, Bank of America strategist Michael Hartnett believes that "April 2" may be overhyped, and the real "watershed" is the U.S. March non-farm payroll data released on April 4.

Hartnett analyzes that to avoid triggering a second wave of inflationary pressure, the Trump administration may deliberately downplay the impact of April 2. The employment report on April 4 will more clearly show whether the economy is achieving a soft landing and will provide more reliable guidance for the market direction in April, thus deserving more market attention.

April 4: The Real Market Turning Point, Two Possible Market Reactions

In the latest "Flow Show" report, Hartnett states that the Trump administration may deliberately downplay the impact of April 2, rather than exaggerating it as the market expects.

The main reason is to avoid triggering a second wave of inflationary pressure—considering that inflation remains a sensitive topic in the U.S. economy and politics, the Trump administration has ample motivation to prevent tariff policies from causing a new round of price increases.

In contrast, Hartnett emphasizes that the March employment report released on April 4 will become a key indicator for judging whether the economy is experiencing a soft or hard landing, and will more directly influence the market's performance in April. In the report, Hartnett details two employment data scenarios and their possible market reactions:

1. Soft Landing Scenario (new jobs of 100,000 to 200,000): Indicates that the economy has not entered a recession, and the recent low of 5,500 points for the S&P 500 index will receive effective support, with retail and housing construction stocks likely to see a significant rebound. (In other words, Hartnett believes this scenario will alleviate market concerns about a hard landing for the economy and support the stability of risk asset prices.)

2. Hard Landing Scenario (new jobs less than 100,000): The S&P 500 index may hit a new low in April, with global stock markets, bank stocks, and the credit market declining accordingly, and the Trump administration may be forced to quickly pivot to promote tax cuts to stimulate the economy. (In other words, Hartnett believes this will confirm that the pace of economic slowdown exceeds expectations, triggering a sharp rise in market risk aversion.)

Additionally, Hartnett believes that the performance of U.S. bank stocks remains a core barometer for assessing market health, and whether it can hold the important technical level of BKX 120 points is worth close attention.

Specifically, Hartnett first emphasizes the key role of U.S. bank stocks as a "barometer" for the market. He then particularly points out that although the credit market has been relatively stable, high-yield credit default swaps (CDS) have recently widened to 400 basis points, indicating that credit risk is risingWhat is even more concerning is that the private equity index composed of Blackstone (BX), KKR, Carlyle (CG), Apollo (APO), and several major bank stocks (JP Morgan, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, Citigroup) has fallen by 22% in the past two months, indicating a significant increase in market pressure.

The private equity industry has now joined the ranks of commercial real estate, small-cap stocks, and the housing market in calling for the Federal Reserve to implement rapid and substantial interest rate cuts.

Hartnett warns that if the Bank of America Index (BKX) cannot hold the critical support level of 120 points, the market may face "huge risks."

Investor Sentiment and Core Questions

The report provides an in-depth analysis of the current state of market sentiment. While Wall Street's investor sentiment continues to deteriorate (mainly influenced by daily price fluctuations), the U.S. put/call option ratio has not yet shown that "fear" sentiment has peaked, indicating that the market correction may not be over.

Hartnett revealed that the most common question from his clients is: "What can stop DOGE and tariff shock therapy?" This suggests that investors have not fully shorted risk assets and are still seeking investment certainty.

For the latter question, Hartnett provided specific answers: a surge in inflation leading to rising bond yields, a decline in Trump's approval ratings, the Republican Party losing control of the House of Representatives, or rising unemployment rates in key swing states such as Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan. These factors could alter the current market's fundamental expectations.

Notably, Hartnett emphasized that U.S. households' holdings of U.S. stocks (USD 38 trillion) now account for a record 29% of financial assets, surpassing the previous peaks in 1968 and 2000. In the 10 years following 1968 and 2000, the annualized return of the S&P 500 Index was only 3.5% and -0.4%, respectively, which was extremely poor.