U.S. Stock Outlook | The inflation indicator favored by the Federal Reserve is coming tonight

1. As of March 28 (Friday) before the US stock market opens, the three major US stock index futures are all down. As of the time of writing, Dow futures are down 0.08%, S&P 500 futures are down 0.14%, and Nasdaq futures are down 0.22%.

1. As of the time of writing, the German DAX index is down 0.44%, the UK FTSE 100 index is up 0.17%, the French CAC40 index is down 0.44%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 index is down 0.39%.

1. As of the time of writing, WTI crude oil is down 0.10%, priced at $69.85 per barrel. Brent crude oil is down 0.12%, priced at $73.25 per barrel.

Market News

The Fed's preferred inflation indicator is coming tonight. On Friday, the Federal Reserve's most favored inflation indicator—the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE)—will be released tonight. However, despite the importance of this data for policymakers, it may not be enough to excite investors and traders, as more severe inflation risks are rapidly approaching. Surveys indicate that the core PCE inflation (excluding food and energy) for February is expected to rise 0.3% month-on-month, unchanged from January; the year-on-year increase is expected to be 2.7%, slightly higher than January's 2.6%. Some market participants are even concerned that the actual reported data may exceed expectations. The PCE report is favored by the Fed because it more comprehensively reflects changes in consumer behavior. However, even if February data shows a slight improvement in consumer spending, it may be difficult to reverse the weak trend for the entire first quarter.

Value stocks in the US and Europe stand out amid Trump's tariff storm, but continued outperformance requires earnings. Value stocks in the US stock market, which have long underperformed the broader market, are experiencing a rare moment of glory this year amid the wave of sell-offs triggered by the Trump administration's new round of global tariff policies. However, whether the value stocks that have led the US stock market this year or the banking giants in Europe that have outperformed the European stock market will continue to perform well relative to the long-time market favorites—growth stocks led by technology—will depend on the upcoming earnings season. Statistical data shows that the S&P 500 Value Index (which includes stocks with relatively low fundamental valuations such as banks, consumer staples, and healthcare) has risen 0.4% this year, while the S&P 500 Growth Index, which focuses on high-growth technology companies, has fallen 6.5% during the same period Tariffs weigh heavily, causing anxiety; Federal Reserve officials frequently mention "uncertainty." A new term has frequently appeared in the speeches of senior Federal Reserve officials: uncertainty. This phenomenon can be traced back to last week when Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell mentioned the term extensively during a press conference on March 19. At that time, the Federal Reserve decided to keep interest rates unchanged, and Powell mentioned "uncertainty" 22 times in his remarks. When discussing the outlook for the U.S. economy, Powell stated, "The level of uncertainty is very high." His colleagues have also used similar wording. New York Fed President John Williams used the term 12 times in a speech titled "The Certainty of Uncertainty" last Friday. This week, Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler mentioned "increasing levels of uncertainty," while St. Louis Fed President James Bullard warned that the impact of President Trump's tariffs on inflation is surrounded by considerable uncertainty.

Continue to be bullish! Gold surges to new highs as Wall Street hurriedly "tears up reports." On Thursday, New York gold futures hit their 17th record of the year, as spot gold climbed to around $3,060 following President Trump's announcement of tariffs on automobiles, raising further concerns about an escalation in the trade war. The decline in the U.S. dollar index also helped push prices higher. Meanwhile, COMEX gold futures for June broke through the $3,100 per ounce mark during trading on Thursday, setting a new historical high. As gold prices rise to new heights, Wall Street continues to raise target prices. In this context, the bullish sentiment on Wall Street is significant. Before Bank of America issued the aforementioned call, Macquarie Group made a similar prediction. Macquarie recently forecast that gold prices will reach $3,500 in the third quarter of this year. UBS is bullish on gold, projecting it to reach $3,200.

Individual Stock News

China Automotive Systems (CAAS.US) Q4 revenue of $188.7 million. China Automotive Systems reported Q4 revenue of $188.7 million, up from $159.2 million; earnings per share were $0.30, down from $0.36.

NVIDIA (NVDA.US) H20 chip supply crisis; China's leading server company H3C raises inventory alarm. A customer notice from China's leading server company H3C has unveiled a crisis brewing in the global AI chip market. This internal document points to "significant uncertainty in the international supply chain" for NVIDIA's H20 chip, with inventory nearing the red line, and new batches expected to arrive only by mid-April. This top AI chip, which is allowed for sale to China under U.S. export control rules, is facing an unprecedented supply crisis. Geopolitical clouds have become a key variable. H3C candidly stated in the notice that the deteriorating global trade environment and fluctuations in raw material policies have exacerbated an already fragile supply chain. More troubling is that the supply plan after April 20 remains shrouded in multiple uncertainties, including raw material controls, logistics disruptions, and production bottlenecks.

Toyota (TM.US) global sales surged in February, with the Japanese market skyrocketing by 52% as the biggest driver. After a slow start to the year, Toyota experienced an increase in sales in February. Despite steady performance in overseas markets, the group's global sales still rose by 9.5% year-on-year to 825,000 units, thanks to explosive growth in the Japanese domestic market Among them, domestic sales in Japan surged by 52% year-on-year, becoming the core engine driving growth, while global production also increased by 12.5% to 888,000 units. This positive momentum coincides with a sudden shift in U.S. trade policy. The Trump administration announced a 25% tariff on imported cars starting next week, putting sudden pressure on the global automotive industry.

Muddy Waters' short-selling report strikes, AppLovin (APP.US) stock price "plummets" before rebounding. On Thursday, AppLovin's stock fell sharply by 20% in the U.S. market, marking the largest single-day decline, after Muddy Waters released a short-selling report on the company. As of the time of publication, the stock was up 8.14% in pre-market trading, priced at $283.00. This is at least the third report targeting AppLovin released by short sellers in about a month. In February, Fuzzy Panda and Culper Research both published short-selling reports on this company that provides marketing services for app developers, leading to a decline in its stock price. Just days before these reports were released, The Bear Cave also issued a cautious assessment report on AppLovin's stock.

Important Economic Data and Event Forecasts

Beijing time 20:30: U.S. February personal spending month-on-month (%), U.S. February PCE price index year-on-year (%).

Beijing time 22:00: U.S. March University of Michigan consumer confidence index final value.

Next day Beijing time 01:00: U.S. total number of active drilling rigs nationwide as of the week ending March 28.

TBD: U.S. President Trump and Canadian Prime Minister Carney are reportedly scheduled to have a call on Friday, marking Carney's first since taking office.

Next day Beijing time 00:15: Federal Reserve Governor Barr speaks.

Next day Beijing time 03:00: CFTC releases weekly positions report.

Next day Beijing time 03:30: 2027 FOMC voter, Atlanta Fed President Bostic speaks